What to Expect when China Liberalizes Its Capital Account

What to Expect when China Liberalizes Its Capital Account
Author: Mark Kruger
Publisher:
Total Pages: 28
Release: 2016
Genre: Capital movements
ISBN:

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When China joined the World Trade Organization in December 2001, it marked a watershed for the world economy. Ten years from now, the opening of China's capital account and the financial integration that will unfold will be viewed as a milestone of similar importance. This paper discusses the benefits, to China and the rest of the world, of deepening China's capital account liberalization. We assess China's current level of de jure and de facto integration, in relation to other G20 economies. We update the Pasricha et al. (2015) data on capital control actions to 2015 for China, to assess China's international financial integration. We also look at its relative international investment position to gauge its de facto integration. We then estimate the size and composition of capital flows likely to ensue assuming that China's further capital account liberalization results in its gross international investment position converging to that of the G20 average. In addition, we discuss the risks involved with the further opening of China's capital account and how they can best be managed. We also emphasize the potentially stabilizing effects of residents' flows and the importance of liberalizing inflows and outflows in a balanced way and at the same time.

What to Expect when China Liberalizes Its Capital Account

What to Expect when China Liberalizes Its Capital Account
Author:
Publisher:
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2016
Genre:
ISBN:

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When China joined the World Trade Organization in December 2001, it marked a watershed for the world economy. Ten years from now, the opening of China's capital account and the financial integration that will unfold will be viewed as a milestone of similar importance. This paper discusses the benefits, to China and the rest of the world, of deepening China's capital account liberalization. We assess China's current level of de jure and de facto integration, in relation to other G20 economies. We update the Pasricha et al. (2015) data on capital control actions to 2015 for China, to assess China's international financial integration. We also look at its relative international investment position to gauge its de facto integration. We then estimate the size and composition of capital flows likely to ensue assuming that China's further capital account liberalization results in its gross international investment position converging to that of the G20 average. In addition, we discuss the risks involved with the further opening of China's capital account and how they can best be managed. We also emphasize the potentially stabilizing effects of residents' flows and the importance of liberalizing inflows and outflows in a balanced way and at the same time.

Do Inflows or Outflows Dominate? Global Implications of Capital Account Liberalization in China

Do Inflows or Outflows Dominate? Global Implications of Capital Account Liberalization in China
Author: Mr.Tamim Bayoumi
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 32
Release: 2013-08-28
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1475532156

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This paper assesses the implications of Chinese capital account liberalization for capital flows. Stylized facts from capital account liberalization in advanced and large emerging market economies illustrate that capital account liberalization has historically generated large gross capital in- and outflows, but the direction of net flows has depended on many factors. An econometric portfolio allocation model finds that capital controls significantly dampen cross-border portfolio asset holdings. The model also suggests that capital account liberalization in China may trigger net portfolio outflows as large domestic savings seek to diversify abroad.

Capital Account Liberalization in China

Capital Account Liberalization in China
Author: Pardee Center for the Study of the Longer-Range Future at Boston University
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 2014-10-03
Genre:
ISBN: 9781936727117

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This is the third report stemming from the Pardee Center Task Force on Regulating Capital Flows for Long-Run Development, a project of the Global Economic Governance Initiative (GEGI) at Boston University.This report is the collective work of experts examining the benefits and risks of accelerated capital account liberalization in China. The contributing authors - all leading scholars and practitioners from around the world - met at Boston University in February 2014 to discuss the experiences of other emerging market countries that liberalized the capital account in the past to glean lessons for China as it considers this delicate task. This volume is an outcome from that meeting, presenting the authors' perspectives on important aspects of capital account liberalization that China should pay special attention to, not only for its own sake, but also in consideration of the potential impacts that China's actions may have on other emerging markets and the global economy overall.The co-chairs for this Pardee Center Task Force Report are Kevin P. Gallagher, co-director of GEGI; José Antonia Ocampo of the Initiative for Policy Dialogue (IPD) at Columbia University; and Ming Zhang and Yu Yonding of the Institute for World Economics and Politics (IWEP) at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. GEGI, IPD, and IWEP are co-sponsors of this report, and IWEP will oversee publication of a Chinese translation. The Pardee Center for the Study of the Longer-Range Future and the Center for Finance, Law & Policy at Boston University also provided support for this project.The first two reports of the Pardee Center Task Force on Regulating Capital Flows for Long-Run Development are available at www.bu.edu/publications-library. All three reports and other publications of the Global Economic Governance Initiative are available at www.bu.edu/gegi.

How Would Capital Account Liberalization Affect China's Capital Flows and the Renminbi Real Exchange Rates?

How Would Capital Account Liberalization Affect China's Capital Flows and the Renminbi Real Exchange Rates?
Author: Dong He
Publisher:
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2012
Genre:
ISBN:

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In this paper we study the determinants of gross capital flows, project the size of China's international investment position in 2020, and analyze the implications for the renminbi real exchange rate if China liberalizes the capital account. We assume in this exercise that the renminbi will have largely achieved capital account convertibility by the end of the current decade, a timetable consistent with recent proposals by the People's Bank of China. Our analysis shows that if the capital account were liberalized, China's gross international investment position would grow significantly, and inflows and outflows would become much more balanced. The private sector would turn its net liability position into a balanced position, and the official sector would reduce its net asset position significantly, relative to the country's GDP. Because of the increasing importance of private sector foreign claims and the decreasing importance of official foreign reserves, China would be able to earn higher net investment income from abroad. Overall, China would continue to be a net creditor, with the net foreign asset position as a share of GDP remaining largely stable through this decade. These findings suggest that the renminbi real exchange rate would not be particularly sensitive to capital account liberalization as capital flows are expected to be two-sided. The renminbi real exchange rate would likely be on a path of moderate appreciation as China is expected to maintain a sizeable growth differential with its trading partners.

Taming Capital Flows

Taming Capital Flows
Author: J. Stiglitz
Publisher: Springer
Total Pages: 300
Release: 2015-05-05
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 113742768X

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This volume contains country experiences explained by policy makers and studies by leading experts on causes and consequences of capital flows as well as policies to control these flows. It addresses portfolio flow issues central to open economies, especially emerging markets.

Capital Account Liberalization

Capital Account Liberalization
Author: Peter Blair Henry
Publisher:
Total Pages: 82
Release: 2006
Genre: Capital
ISBN: 9780979037634

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"Writings on the macroeconomic impact of capital account liberalization find few, if any, robust effects of liberalization on real variables. In contrast to the prevailing wisdom, I argue that the textbook theory of liberalization holds up quite well to a critical reading of this literature. The lion's share of papers that find no effect of liberalization on real variables tell us nothing about the empirical validity of the theory, because they do not really test it. This paper explains why it is that most studies do not really address the theory they set out to test. It also discusses what is necessary to test the theory and examines papers that have done so. Studies that actually test the theory show that liberalization has significant effects on the cost of capital, investment, and economic growth"--National Bureau of Economic Research web site.

Who Needs to Open the Capital Account

Who Needs to Open the Capital Account
Author: Olivier Jeanne
Publisher: Peterson Institute
Total Pages: 147
Release: 2012
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0881326488

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Most countries emerged from the Second World War with capital accounts that were closed to the rest of the world. Since then, a process of capital account opening has occurred, with the result that all developed and many emerging-market countries now have capital accounts that are both de facto and de jure open, while many developing countries also have de facto openness. This study examines this in part by considering some of the first lessons from the current global financial crisis. This crisis may change the terms of the debate on capital account liberalization in a deeper and more lasting way than any of the crises of the past two decades because it may mark a reversal in the secular trend of financial liberalization at the core of the international financial system. The current crisis also raises new questions about the appropriate policy responses to boom-bust dynamics in domestic credit and in international credit flows. Intellectual consistency is needed between the domestic and international dimensions of financial regulation and the policies aimed at dealing with boom-bust dynamics in domestic and international credit.