Volatility and Jump Risk Premia in Emerging Market Bonds

Volatility and Jump Risk Premia in Emerging Market Bonds
Author: John Matovu
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 32
Release: 2007-07
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN:

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There is strong evidence that interest rates and bond yield movements exhibit both stochastic volatility and unanticipated jumps. The presence of frequent jumps makes it natural to ask whether there is a premium for jump risk embedded in observed bond yields. This paper identifies a class of jump-diffusion models that are successful in approximating the term structure of interest rates of emerging markets. The parameters of the term structure of interest rates are reconciled with the associated bond yields by estimating the volatility and jump risk premia in highly volatile markets. Using the simulated method of moments (SMM), results suggest that all variants of models which do not take into account stochastic volatility and unanticipated jumps cannot generate the non-normalities consistent with the observed interest rates. Jumps occur (8,10) times a year in Argentina and Brazil, respectively. The size and variance of these jumps is also of statistical significance.

Identifying Volatility Risk Premia from Fixed Income Asian Options

Identifying Volatility Risk Premia from Fixed Income Asian Options
Author: Caio Almeida
Publisher:
Total Pages: 43
Release: 2018
Genre:
ISBN:

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Fixed income Asian options are frequently adopted by companies to hedge interest rate risk. Having a payoff structure depending on the cumulative short-term rate makes them particularly informativeabout interest rate volatility risk. Based on a joint dataset of bonds and Asian interest rate options, we study the inter-relations between bond and volatility risk premiums in a major emerging fixed income market. We propose and implement a dynamic term structure model that generates an incomplete market, compatible with a preliminary empirical analysis of the dataset. Approximation formulas for at-the-money Asian option prices avoid the use of computationally intensive Fourier transform methods, allowing for an efficient implementation of the model. The model generates bond risk premium strongly correlated (89%) with a widely accepted emerging market benchmark index (EMBI-Global), and a negative volatility risk premium, consistent with the use of Asian options as insurance in this market. Volatility premium explains a significant portion (33%) of bond premium, indicating that the Asian options market considerably affects the prices of risk of its neighbor bond market.

Sources of Time Varying Risk and Risk Premia in U.S. Stock and Bond Markets

Sources of Time Varying Risk and Risk Premia in U.S. Stock and Bond Markets
Author: Bala Arshanapalli
Publisher:
Total Pages: 48
Release: 2003
Genre:
ISBN:

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This paper investigates the sources of time-varying risk and risk premia for both the U.S. stock and bond markets. Although a growing literature has emerged that examines the return and volatility characteristics of the U.S. stock and bond markets separately, little work has appeared that models these markets jointly. This paper proposes a model that provides evidence concerning the sources of time varying risk and risk premia in the markets that considers both markets simultaneously. The model captures the change in the risk premium to each market's own volatility risk as well as to the covariance risk for specific events. We test for the effects of macroeconomic news on time-varying volatility as well as time-varying covariance, and whether such news induces time-varying risk premia in either of the markets. We find that stocks, as opposed to bonds exhibit a change in the risk premium on variance risk on PPI announcement dates. There is also evidence of a change in the bond risk premium on covariance risk on macroeconomic news announcement dates. Employment reports and PPI releases appear as events inducing time-varying conditional variance for stock, Treasury Notes, as well as Treasury Bond returns. Finally, the results do not support the conjecture that conditional covariance of stock and bond returns falls on announcement days.

Bond Risk Premia and Realized Jump Risk

Bond Risk Premia and Realized Jump Risk
Author: Jonathan H. Wright
Publisher:
Total Pages: 33
Release: 2009
Genre:
ISBN:

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We find that augmenting a regression of excess bond returns on the term structure of forward rates with an estimate of the mean realized jump size almost doubles the R2 of the forecasting regression. The return predictability from augmenting with the jump mean easily dominates that offered by augmenting with options-implied volatility and realized volatility from high frequency data. In out-of-sample forecasting exercises, inclusion of the jump mean can reduce the root mean square prediction error by up to 40 percent. The incremental return predictability captured by the realized jump mean largely accounts for the countercyclical movements in bond risk premia. This result is consistent with the setting of an incomplete market in which the conditional distribution of excess bond returns is affected by a jump risk factor that does not lie in the span of the term structure of yields.

Bond Risk Premia in Emerging Markets

Bond Risk Premia in Emerging Markets
Author: Leonardo Iania
Publisher:
Total Pages: 17
Release: 2020
Genre:
ISBN:

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We employ an affine term structure model with no-arbitrage restrictions to analyze the global and domestic determinants of bond risk premia in major emerging markets. Our model captures (long-term) movements of realized risk premia and indicates that global economic and financial factors play a relevant role in explaining country-specific bond risk premia. We also provide evidence of heterogeneous responses of country-specific risk premia to global shocks.

Financial Markets and the Real Economy

Financial Markets and the Real Economy
Author: John H. Cochrane
Publisher: Now Publishers Inc
Total Pages: 117
Release: 2005
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1933019158

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Financial Markets and the Real Economy reviews the current academic literature on the macroeconomics of finance.

Credit Risk Modeling

Credit Risk Modeling
Author: David Lando
Publisher: Princeton University Press
Total Pages: 328
Release: 2009-12-13
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1400829194

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Credit risk is today one of the most intensely studied topics in quantitative finance. This book provides an introduction and overview for readers who seek an up-to-date reference to the central problems of the field and to the tools currently used to analyze them. The book is aimed at researchers and students in finance, at quantitative analysts in banks and other financial institutions, and at regulators interested in the modeling aspects of credit risk. David Lando considers the two broad approaches to credit risk analysis: that based on classical option pricing models on the one hand, and on a direct modeling of the default probability of issuers on the other. He offers insights that can be drawn from each approach and demonstrates that the distinction between the two approaches is not at all clear-cut. The book strikes a fruitful balance between quickly presenting the basic ideas of the models and offering enough detail so readers can derive and implement the models themselves. The discussion of the models and their limitations and five technical appendixes help readers expand and generalize the models themselves or to understand existing generalizations. The book emphasizes models for pricing as well as statistical techniques for estimating their parameters. Applications include rating-based modeling, modeling of dependent defaults, swap- and corporate-yield curve dynamics, credit default swaps, and collateralized debt obligations.

German Bond Yields and Debt Supply: Is There a “Bund Premium”?

German Bond Yields and Debt Supply: Is There a “Bund Premium”?
Author: Anne-Charlotte Paret
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 34
Release: 2019-11-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1513518321

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Are Bunds special? This paper estimates the “Bund premium” as the difference in convenience yields between other sovereign safe assets and German government bonds adjusted for sovereign credit risk, liquidity and swap market frictions. A higher premium suggests less substitutability of sovereign bonds. We document a rise in the “Bund premium” in the post-crisis period. We show that there is a negative relationship of the premium with the relative supply of German sovereign bonds, which is more pronounced for higher maturities and when risk aversion proxied by bond market volatility is high. Going forward, we expect German government debt supply to remain scarce, with important implications for the ECB’s monetary policy strategy.