Modeling Uncertainty in the Earth Sciences

Modeling Uncertainty in the Earth Sciences
Author: Jef Caers
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Total Pages: 294
Release: 2011-05-25
Genre: Science
ISBN: 1119998719

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Modeling Uncertainty in the Earth Sciences highlights the various issues, techniques and practical modeling tools available for modeling the uncertainty of complex Earth systems and the impact that it has on practical situations. The aim of the book is to provide an introductory overview which covers a broad range of tried-and-tested tools. Descriptions of concepts, philosophies, challenges, methodologies and workflows give the reader an understanding of the best way to make decisions under uncertainty for Earth Science problems. The book covers key issues such as: Spatial and time aspect; large complexity and dimensionality; computation power; costs of 'engineering' the Earth; uncertainty in the modeling and decision process. Focusing on reliable and practical methods this book provides an invaluable primer for the complex area of decision making with uncertainty in the Earth Sciences.

Global Sensitivity Analysis

Global Sensitivity Analysis
Author: Andrea Saltelli
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Total Pages: 304
Release: 2008-02-28
Genre: Mathematics
ISBN: 9780470725177

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Complex mathematical and computational models are used in all areas of society and technology and yet model based science is increasingly contested or refuted, especially when models are applied to controversial themes in domains such as health, the environment or the economy. More stringent standards of proofs are demanded from model-based numbers, especially when these numbers represent potential financial losses, threats to human health or the state of the environment. Quantitative sensitivity analysis is generally agreed to be one such standard. Mathematical models are good at mapping assumptions into inferences. A modeller makes assumptions about laws pertaining to the system, about its status and a plethora of other, often arcane, system variables and internal model settings. To what extent can we rely on the model-based inference when most of these assumptions are fraught with uncertainties? Global Sensitivity Analysis offers an accessible treatment of such problems via quantitative sensitivity analysis, beginning with the first principles and guiding the reader through the full range of recommended practices with a rich set of solved exercises. The text explains the motivation for sensitivity analysis, reviews the required statistical concepts, and provides a guide to potential applications. The book: Provides a self-contained treatment of the subject, allowing readers to learn and practice global sensitivity analysis without further materials. Presents ways to frame the analysis, interpret its results, and avoid potential pitfalls. Features numerous exercises and solved problems to help illustrate the applications. Is authored by leading sensitivity analysis practitioners, combining a range of disciplinary backgrounds. Postgraduate students and practitioners in a wide range of subjects, including statistics, mathematics, engineering, physics, chemistry, environmental sciences, biology, toxicology, actuarial sciences, and econometrics will find much of use here. This book will prove equally valuable to engineers working on risk analysis and to financial analysts concerned with pricing and hedging.

Environmental Decisions in the Face of Uncertainty

Environmental Decisions in the Face of Uncertainty
Author: Institute of Medicine
Publisher: National Academies Press
Total Pages: 280
Release: 2013-05-20
Genre: Political Science
ISBN: 0309290236

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The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is one of several federal agencies responsible for protecting Americans against significant risks to human health and the environment. As part of that mission, EPA estimates the nature, magnitude, and likelihood of risks to human health and the environment; identifies the potential regulatory actions that will mitigate those risks and protect public health1 and the environment; and uses that information to decide on appropriate regulatory action. Uncertainties, both qualitative and quantitative, in the data and analyses on which these decisions are based enter into the process at each step. As a result, the informed identification and use of the uncertainties inherent in the process is an essential feature of environmental decision making. EPA requested that the Institute of Medicine (IOM) convene a committee to provide guidance to its decision makers and their partners in states and localities on approaches to managing risk in different contexts when uncertainty is present. It also sought guidance on how information on uncertainty should be presented to help risk managers make sound decisions and to increase transparency in its communications with the public about those decisions. Given that its charge is not limited to human health risk assessment and includes broad questions about managing risks and decision making, in this report the committee examines the analysis of uncertainty in those other areas in addition to human health risks. Environmental Decisions in the Face of Uncertainty explains the statement of task and summarizes the findings of the committee.

Extremes in a Changing Climate

Extremes in a Changing Climate
Author: Amir AghaKouchak
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 430
Release: 2012-10-24
Genre: Science
ISBN: 940074479X

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This book provides a collection of the state-of-the-art methodologies and approaches suggested for detecting extremes, trend analysis, accounting for nonstationarities, and uncertainties associated with extreme value analysis in a changing climate. This volume is designed so that it can be used as the primary reference on the available methodologies for analysis of climate extremes. Furthermore, the book addresses current hydrometeorologic global data sets and their applications for global scale analysis of extremes. While the main objective is to deliver recent theoretical concepts, several case studies on extreme climate conditions are provided. Audience The book is suitable for teaching in graduate courses in the disciplines of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Earth System Science, Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences.

Geographic Uncertainty in Environmental Security

Geographic Uncertainty in Environmental Security
Author: Ashley Morris
Publisher: Springer
Total Pages: 286
Release: 2007-09-14
Genre: Science
ISBN: 1402064381

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This book features papers presented at a NATO Advanced Research Workshop, help in Kyiv, Ukraine, in July 2006. The workshop focused on how uncertainty and fuzziness can be better modeled and implemented in Geographic Information Science to help decision makers make more informed choices, especially as they pertain to environmental security and protection, and brought together top researchers from both NATO countries as well as partner countries.

Statistics for Earth and Environmental Scientists

Statistics for Earth and Environmental Scientists
Author: John H. Schuenemeyer
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Total Pages: 341
Release: 2011-04-12
Genre: Mathematics
ISBN: 1118102215

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A comprehensive treatment of statistical applications for solving real-world environmental problems A host of complex problems face today's earth science community, such as evaluating the supply of remaining non-renewable energy resources, assessing the impact of people on the environment, understanding climate change, and managing the use of water. Proper collection and analysis of data using statistical techniques contributes significantly toward the solution of these problems. Statistics for Earth and Environmental Scientists presents important statistical concepts through data analytic tools and shows readers how to apply them to real-world problems. The authors present several different statistical approaches to the environmental sciences, including Bayesian and nonparametric methodologies. The book begins with an introduction to types of data, evaluation of data, modeling and estimation, random variation, and sampling—all of which are explored through case studies that use real data from earth science applications. Subsequent chapters focus on principles of modeling and the key methods and techniques for analyzing scientific data, including: Interval estimation and Methods for analyzinghypothesis testing of means time series data Spatial statistics Multivariate analysis Discrete distributions Experimental design Most statistical models are introduced by concept and application, given as equations, and then accompanied by heuristic justification rather than a formal proof. Data analysis, model building, and statistical inference are stressed throughout, and readers are encouraged to collect their own data to incorporate into the exercises at the end of each chapter. Most data sets, graphs, and analyses are computed using R, but can be worked with using any statistical computing software. A related website features additional data sets, answers to selected exercises, and R code for the book's examples. Statistics for Earth and Environmental Scientists is an excellent book for courses on quantitative methods in geology, geography, natural resources, and environmental sciences at the upper-undergraduate and graduate levels. It is also a valuable reference for earth scientists, geologists, hydrologists, and environmental statisticians who collect and analyze data in their everyday work.

Quantitative Analysis and Modeling of Earth and Environmental Data

Quantitative Analysis and Modeling of Earth and Environmental Data
Author: Jiaping Wu
Publisher: Elsevier
Total Pages: 504
Release: 2021-12-04
Genre: Science
ISBN: 0128163429

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Quantitative Analysis and Modeling of Earth and Environmental Data: Space-Time and Spacetime Data Considerations introduces the notion of chronotopologic data analysis that offers a systematic, quantitative analysis of multi-sourced data and provides information about the spatial distribution and temporal dynamics of natural attributes (physical, biological, health, social). It includes models and techniques for handling data that may vary by space and/or time, and aims to improve understanding of the physical laws of change underlying the available numerical datasets, while taking into consideration the in-situ uncertainties and relevant measurement errors (conceptual, technical, computational). It considers the synthesis of scientific theory-based methods (stochastic modeling, modern geostatistics) and data-driven techniques (machine learning, artificial neural networks) so that their individual strengths are combined by acting symbiotically and complementing each other. The notions and methods presented in Quantitative Analysis and Modeling of Earth and Environmental Data: Space-Time and Spacetime Data Considerations cover a wide range of data in various forms and sources, including hard measurements, soft observations, secondary information and auxiliary variables (ground-level measurements, satellite observations, scientific instruments and records, protocols and surveys, empirical models and charts). Including real-world practical applications as well as practice exercises, this book is a comprehensive step-by-step tutorial of theory-based and data-driven techniques that will help students and researchers master data analysis and modeling in earth and environmental sciences (including environmental health and human exposure applications). Explores the analysis and processing of chronotopologic (i.e., space-time and spacetime) data that varies spatially and/or temporally, which is the case with the majority of data in scientific and engineering disciplines Studies the synthesis of scientific theory and empirical evidence (in its various forms) that offers a mathematically rigorous and physically meaningful assessment of real-world phenomena Covers a wide range of data describing a variety of attributes characterizing physical phenomena and systems including earth, ocean and atmospheric variables, environmental and ecological parameters, population health states, disease indicators, and social and economic characteristics Includes case studies and practice exercises at the end of each chapter for both real-world applications and deeper understanding of the concepts presented

Spatial Modeling in GIS and R for Earth and Environmental Sciences

Spatial Modeling in GIS and R for Earth and Environmental Sciences
Author: Hamid Reza Pourghasemi
Publisher: Elsevier
Total Pages: 798
Release: 2019-01-18
Genre: Mathematics
ISBN: 0128156953

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Spatial Modeling in GIS and R for Earth and Environmental Sciences offers an integrated approach to spatial modelling using both GIS and R. Given the importance of Geographical Information Systems and geostatistics across a variety of applications in Earth and Environmental Science, a clear link between GIS and open source software is essential for the study of spatial objects or phenomena that occur in the real world and facilitate problem-solving. Organized into clear sections on applications and using case studies, the book helps researchers to more quickly understand GIS data and formulate more complex conclusions. The book is the first reference to provide methods and applications for combining the use of R and GIS in modeling spatial processes. It is an essential tool for students and researchers in earth and environmental science, especially those looking to better utilize GIS and spatial modeling. Offers a clear, interdisciplinary guide to serve researchers in a variety of fields, including hazards, land surveying, remote sensing, cartography, geophysics, geology, natural resources, environment and geography Provides an overview, methods and case studies for each application Expresses concepts and methods at an appropriate level for both students and new users to learn by example