U-MIDAS

U-MIDAS
Author: Claudia Foroni
Publisher:
Total Pages: 47
Release: 2011
Genre:
ISBN:

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U-Midas

U-Midas
Author: Claudia Foroni
Publisher:
Total Pages: 56
Release: 2016
Genre:
ISBN:

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Mixed-data sampling (MIDAS) regressions allow to estimate dynamic equations that explain a low-frequency variable by high-frequency variables and their lags. When the difference in sampling frequencies between the regressand and the regressors is large, distributed lag functions are typically employed to model dynamics avoiding parameter proliferation. In macroeconomic applications, however, differences in sampling frequencies are often small. In such a case, it might not be necessary to employ distributed lag functions. In this paper, we discuss the pros and cons of unrestricted lag polynomials in MIDAS regressions. We derive unrestricted MIDAS regressions (U-MIDAS) from linear high-frequency models, discuss identification issues, and show that their parameters can be estimated by OLS. In Monte Carlo experiments, we compare U-MIDAS to MIDAS with functional distributed lags estimated by NLS. We show that U-MIDAS generally performs better than MIDAS when mixing quarterly and monthly data. On the other hand, with larger differences in sampling frequencies, distributed lag-functions outperform unrestricted polynomials. In an empirical application on out-of-sample nowcasting GDP in the US and the Euro area using monthly predictors, we find a good performance of U-MIDAS for a number of indicators, albeit the results depend on the evaluation sample. We suggest to consider U-MIDAS as a potential alternative to the existing MIDAS approach in particular for mixing monthly and quarterly variables. In practice, the choice between the two approaches should be made on a case-by-case basis, depending on their relative performance.

U-MIDAS

U-MIDAS
Author: Claudia Foroni
Publisher:
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2011
Genre:
ISBN: 9783865587817

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Applied Economic Forecasting Using Time Series Methods

Applied Economic Forecasting Using Time Series Methods
Author: Eric Ghysels
Publisher: Oxford University Press
Total Pages: 617
Release: 2018
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0190622016

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Economic forecasting is a key ingredient of decision making in the public and private sectors. This book provides the necessary tools to solve real-world forecasting problems using time-series methods. It targets undergraduate and graduate students as well as researchers in public and private institutions interested in applied economic forecasting.

Theory and Applications of Time Series Analysis

Theory and Applications of Time Series Analysis
Author: Olga Valenzuela
Publisher: Springer Nature
Total Pages: 236
Release: 2023-12-11
Genre: Mathematics
ISBN: 303140209X

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This book presents the latest developments in the theory and applications of time series analysis and forecasting. Comprising a selection of refereed papers, it is divided into several parts that address modern theoretical aspects of time series analysis, forecasting and prediction, with applications to various disciplines, including econometrics and energy research. The broad range of topics discussed, including matters of particular relevance for sustainable development, will give readers a modern perspective on the subject. The included contributions were originally presented at the 8th International Conference on Time Series and Forecasting, ITISE 2022, held in Gran Canaria, Spain, June 27-30, 2022. The ITISE conference series provides a forum for scientists, engineers, educators and students to discuss the latest advances and implementations in the foundations, theory, models and applications of time series analysis and forecasting. It focuses on interdisciplinary research encompassing computer science, mathematics, statistics and econometrics.

Identifying Optimal Indicators and Lag Terms for Nowcasting Models

Identifying Optimal Indicators and Lag Terms for Nowcasting Models
Author: Jing Xie
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 38
Release: 2023-03-03
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN:

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Many central banks and government agencies use nowcasting techniques to obtain policy relevant information about the business cycle. Existing nowcasting methods, however, have two critical shortcomings for this purpose. First, in contrast to machine-learning models, they do not provide much if any guidance on selecting the best explantory variables (both high- and low-frequency indicators) from the (typically) larger set of variables available to the nowcaster. Second, in addition to the selection of explanatory variables, the order of the autoregression and moving average terms to use in the baseline nowcasting regression is often set arbitrarily. This paper proposes a simple procedure that simultaneously selects the optimal indicators and ARIMA(p,q) terms for the baseline nowcasting regression. The proposed AS-ARIMAX (Adjusted Stepwise Autoregressive Moving Average methods with exogenous variables) approach significantly reduces out-of-sample root mean square error for nowcasts of real GDP of six countries, including India, Argentina, Australia, South Africa, the United Kingdom, and the United States.

Credible Asset Allocation, Optimal Transport Methods, and Related Topics

Credible Asset Allocation, Optimal Transport Methods, and Related Topics
Author: Songsak Sriboonchitta
Publisher: Springer Nature
Total Pages: 762
Release: 2022-07-29
Genre: Technology & Engineering
ISBN: 3030972739

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This book describes state-of-the-art economic ideas and how these ideas can be (and are) used to make economic decision (in particular, to optimally allocate assets) and to gauge the results of different economic decisions (in particular, by using optimal transport methods). Special emphasis is paid to machine learning techniques (including deep learning) and to different aspects of quantum econometrics—when quantum physics and quantum computing models are techniques are applied to study economic phenomena. Applications range from more traditional economic areas to more non-traditional topics such as economic aspects of tourism, cryptocurrencies, telecommunication infrastructure, and pandemic. This book helps student to learn new techniques, practitioners to become better knowledgeable of the state-of-the-art econometric techniques, and researchers to further develop these important research directions

Robustness in Econometrics

Robustness in Econometrics
Author: Vladik Kreinovich
Publisher: Springer
Total Pages: 693
Release: 2017-02-11
Genre: Technology & Engineering
ISBN: 3319507427

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This book presents recent research on robustness in econometrics. Robust data processing techniques – i.e., techniques that yield results minimally affected by outliers – and their applications to real-life economic and financial situations are the main focus of this book. The book also discusses applications of more traditional statistical techniques to econometric problems. Econometrics is a branch of economics that uses mathematical (especially statistical) methods to analyze economic systems, to forecast economic and financial dynamics, and to develop strategies for achieving desirable economic performance. In day-by-day data, we often encounter outliers that do not reflect the long-term economic trends, e.g., unexpected and abrupt fluctuations. As such, it is important to develop robust data processing techniques that can accommodate these fluctuations.

A Projection Model for Resource-rich and Dollarized Economy: The Democratic Republic of the Congo

A Projection Model for Resource-rich and Dollarized Economy: The Democratic Republic of the Congo
Author: Victor Musa
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 66
Release: 2024-06-21
Genre:
ISBN:

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The paper introduces a semi-structural Quarterly Projection Model (QPM) tailored for the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), highlighting its resource richness and high degree of dollarization. We provide an overview of the model's specifications to elucidate key features of the DRC economy and present its properties, evaluating its alignment with DRC data and assessing its goodness of fit. Additionally, the paper demonstrates the QPM's practical application through a counterfactual scenario, comparing policy recommendations with the actual policy responses of the Central Bank of the Republic of Congo to observed exchange rate and inflation pressures in 2023. Beyond the QPM, the paper showcases supplementary tools that enhance its utility for generating medium-term forecasts and developiong narratives in support of monetary policymaking. Specifically, we introduce the Nowcasting and Near-Term Forecast models, designed to assess the economy in real-time and predict short-term inflationary trends.

Financial, Macro and Micro Econometrics Using R

Financial, Macro and Micro Econometrics Using R
Author: Hrishikesh D. Vinod
Publisher: North Holland
Total Pages: 350
Release: 2020-01-24
Genre:
ISBN: 0128202505

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Financial, Macro and Micro Econometrics Using R, Volume 42, provides state-of-the-art information on important topics in econometrics, including multivariate GARCH, stochastic frontiers, fractional responses, specification testing and model selection, exogeneity testing, causal analysis and forecasting, GMM models, asset bubbles and crises, corporate investments, classification, forecasting, nonstandard problems, cointegration, financial market jumps and co-jumps, among other topics. Presents chapters authored by distinguished, honored researchers who have received awards from the Journal of Econometrics or the Econometric Society Includes descriptions and links to resources and free open source R Gives readers what they need to jumpstart their understanding on the state-of-the-art