Traffic Forecasting Accuracy Assessment Research

Traffic Forecasting Accuracy Assessment Research
Author: Gregory D. Erhardt
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 2020
Genre: Traffic flow
ISBN: 9780309481434

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Accurate traffic forecasts for highway planning and design help ensure that public dollars are spent wisely. Forecasts inform discussions about whether, when, how, and where to invest public resources to manage traffic flow, widen and remodel existing facilities, and where to locate, align, and how to size new ones. The TRB National Cooperative Highway Research Program's NCHRP Report 934: Traffic Forecasting Accuracy Assessment Research seeks to develop a process and methods by which to analyze and improve the accuracy, reliability, and utility of project-level traffic forecasts. The report also includes tools for engineers and planners who are involved in generating traffic forecasts, including: Quantile Regression Models, a Traffic Accuracy Assessment, a Forecast Archive Annotated Outline, a Deep Dive Annotated Outline, and Deep Dive Assessment Tables.

Traffic Forecasting Accuracy Assessment Research

Traffic Forecasting Accuracy Assessment Research
Author: Gregory D. Erhardt
Publisher:
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2020
Genre: Traffic flow
ISBN:

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"Accurate traffic forecasts for highway planning and design help ensure that public dollars are spent wisely. Forecasts inform discussions about whether, when, how, and where to invest public resources to manage traffic flow, widen and remodel existing facilities, and where to locate, align, and how to size new ones. The TRB National Cooperative Highway Research Program's NCHRP Report 934: Traffic Forecasting Accuracy Assessment Research seeks to develop a process and methods by which to analyze and improve the accuracy, reliability, and utility of project-level traffic forecasts. The report also includes tools for engineers and planners who are involved in generating traffic forecasts, including: Quantile Regression Models, a Traffic Accuracy Assessment, a Forecast Archive Annotated Outline, a Deep Dive Annotated Outline, and Deep Dive Assessment Tables."--

A Retrospective Evaluation of Traffic Forecasting

A Retrospective Evaluation of Traffic Forecasting
Author: John S. Miller
Publisher:
Total Pages: 89
Release: 2016
Genre: Traffic estimation
ISBN:

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Traffic forecasting techniques—such as extrapolation of previous years' traffic volumes, regional travel demand models, or local trip generation rates—help planners determine needed transportation improvements. Thus, knowing the accuracy of these techniques can help analysts better consider the range of transportation investments for a given location. To determine this accuracy, the forecasts from 39 Virginia studies (published from 1967-2010) were compared to observed volumes for the forecast year. Excluding statewide forecasts, the number of segments in each study ranged from 1 to 240. For each segment, the difference between the forecast volume and the observed volume divided by the observed volume gives a percent error such that a segment with a perfect forecast has an error of 0%. For the 39 studies, the median absolute percent error ranged from 1% to 134%, with an average value of 40%. Slightly more than one-fourth of the error was explained by three factors: the method used to develop the forecast, the length of the duration between the base year and forecast year, and the number of economic recessions between the base year and forecast year. In addition, although data are more limited, studies that forecast a 24-hour volume had a smaller percent error than studies that forecast a peak hour volume (p = 0.04); the reason is that the latter type of forecast requires an additional data element—the peak hour factor—that itself must be forecast. A limitation of this research is that although replication of observed volumes is sought when making a forecast, the observed volumes themselves are not without error; for example, an "observed" traffic count for a given year may in fact be based on a 48-hour count that has been expanded, based on seasonal adjustment factors, to estimate a yearly average traffic volume. The primary recommendation of this study is that forecasts be presented as a range. For example, based on the 39 studies evaluated, for a study that provides forecasts for multiple links, one would expect the median percent error to be approximately 40%. To be clear, detailed analysis of one study suggests it is possible that even a forecast error will not necessarily alter the decision one would make based on the forecast. Accordingly, considering how a change in a traffic forecast volume (by the expected error) influences decisions can help one better understand the need for a given transportation improvement. A secondary recommendation is to clarify how some of these traffic forecasting techniques can be performed, and supporting details for this clarification are given in Appendix A of this report.

A Retrospective Evaluation of Traffic Forecasting Techniques

A Retrospective Evaluation of Traffic Forecasting Techniques
Author: John S. Miller
Publisher:
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2016
Genre: Traffic estimation
ISBN:

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Traffic forecasting techniques--such as extrapolation of previous years' traffic volumes, regional travel demand models, or local trip generation rates--help planners determine needed transportation improvements. Thus, knowing the accuracy of these techniques can help analysts better consider the range of transportation investments for a given location. To determine this accuracy, the forecasts from 39 Virginia studies (published from 1967-2010) were compared to observed volumes for the forecast year. Excluding statewide forecasts, the number of segments in each study ranged from 1 to 240. For each segment, the difference between the forecast volume and the observed volume divided by the observed volume gives a percent error such that a segment with a perfect forecast has an error of 0%. For the 39 studies, the median absolute percent error ranged from 1% to 134%, with an average value of 40%. Slightly more than one-fourth of the error was explained by three factors: the method used to develop the forecast, the length of the duration between the base year and forecast year, and the number of economic recessions between the base year and forecast year. In addition, although data are more limited, studies that forecast a 24-hour volume had a smaller percent error than studies that forecast a peak hour volume (p = 0.04); the reason is that the latter type of forecast requires an additional data element--the peak hour factor--that itself must be forecast. A limitation of this research is that although replication of observed volumes is sought when making a forecast, the observed volumes themselves are not without error; for example, an "observed" traffic count for a given year may in fact be based on a 48-hour count that has been expanded, based on seasonal adjustment factors, to estimate a yearly average traffic volume. The primary recommendation of this study is that forecasts be presented as a range. For example, based on the 39 studies evaluated, for a study that provides forecasts for multiple links, one would expect the median percent error to be approximately 40%. To be clear, detailed analysis of one study suggests it is possible that even a forecast error will not necessarily alter the decision one would make based on the forecast. Accordingly, considering how a change in a traffic forecast volume (by the expected error) influences decisions can help one better understand the need for a given transportation improvement. A secondary recommendation is to clarify how some of these traffic forecasting techniques can be performed, and supporting details for this clarification are given in Appendix A of this report.

Forecasting Travel in Urban America

Forecasting Travel in Urban America
Author: Konstantinos Chatzis
Publisher: MIT Press
Total Pages: 417
Release: 2023-07-11
Genre: Technology & Engineering
ISBN: 026237451X

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A history of urban travel demand modeling (UTDM) and its enormous influence on American life from the 1920s to the present. For better and worse, the automobile has been an integral part of the American way of life for decades. Its ascendance would have been far less spectacular, however, had engineers and planners not devised urban travel demand modeling (UTDM). This book tells the story of this irreplaceable engineering tool that has helped cities accommodate continuous rise in traffic from the 1950s on. Beginning with UTDM’s origins as a method to help plan new infrastructure, Konstantinos Chatzis follows its trajectory through new generations of models that helped make optimal use of existing capacity and examines related policy instruments, including the recent use of intelligent transportation systems. Chatzis investigates these models as evolving entities involving humans and nonhumans that were shaped through a specific production process. In surveying the various generations of UTDM, he delves into various means of production (from tabulating machines to software packages) and travel survey methods (from personal interviews to GPS tracking devices and smartphones) used to obtain critical information. He also looks at the individuals who have collectively built a distinct UTDM social world by displaying specialized knowledge, developing specific skills, and performing various tasks and functions, and by communicating, interacting, and even competing with one another. Original and refreshingly accessible, Forecasting Travel in Urban America offers the first detailed history behind the thinkers and processes that impact the lives of millions of city dwellers every day.

The Economics of Urban Transportation

The Economics of Urban Transportation
Author: Kenneth A. Small
Publisher: Taylor & Francis
Total Pages: 433
Release: 2024-06-10
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 135165344X

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This new edition of the seminal textbook The Economics of Urban Transportation incorporates the latest research affecting the design, implementation, pricing, and control of transport systems in towns and cities. The book offers an economic framework for understanding the societal impacts and policy implications of many factors including congestion, traffic safety, climate change, air quality, COVID-19, and newly important developments such as ride-hailing services, electric vehicles, and autonomous vehicles. Rigorous in approach and making use of real-world data and econometric techniques, the third edition features a new chapter on the special challenges of managing the energy that powers transportation systems. It provides fully updated coverage of well-known topics and a rigorous treatment of new ones. All of the basic topics needed to apply economics to urban transportation are included: Forecasting demand for transportation services under various conditions Measuring costs, including those incurred by users and incorporating two new tools to describe congestion in dense urban areas Setting prices under practical constraints Evaluating infrastructure investments Understanding how private and public sectors interact to provide services Written by three of the field’s leading researchers, The Economics of Urban Transportation is essential reading for students, researchers, and practicing professionals in transportation economics, planning, engineering, or related disciplines. With a focus on workable models that can be adapted to future needs, it provides tools for a rapidly changing world.

Weather Forecasting Accuracy for FAA Traffic Flow Management

Weather Forecasting Accuracy for FAA Traffic Flow Management
Author: National Research Council
Publisher: National Academies Press
Total Pages: 67
Release: 2003-02-27
Genre: Science
ISBN: 0309087317

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Accurate prediction of convective storms 2- to 6-hours in advance is critical to selecting air traffic routes with minimal weather delays or diversions. This report summarizes the discussions of a workshop to explore present convective weather forecasting skill, strategies for improving that skill, ways to verify forecasts are accurate, and how to make forecasts useful to air traffic controllers, airline dispatchers, and pilots.

Toll Road Traffic and Revenue Forecasts

Toll Road Traffic and Revenue Forecasts
Author: Robert Bain
Publisher: Lulu.com
Total Pages: 126
Release: 2009
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0956152716

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Toll roads, bridges and tunnels represent the most popular class of infrastructure attracting international private finance today. Many deals, however, expose financiers, insurers and other project counterparties to demand risk. This moves traffic and revenue forecasts centre-stage in terms of being able to understand and test the investment proposition - yet the forecasting process itself often remains a mystery. Additionally, there are frequent concerns about predictive reliability. Written specifically for credit analysts, investors and other professionals whose primary expertise lies outside transportation, this book lifts the lid on the 'black box' of traffic and revenue forecasting. The author, Robert Bain (ex-S&P and a civil engineer with 20+ years of forecasting experience) has prepared a straightforward guide which highlights key issues to watch for and suggests ways in which the forecasts can be analysed to improve transparency and investor understanding.

20-year Traffic Forecasting Factors

20-year Traffic Forecasting Factors
Author: Dennis L. Johnson
Publisher:
Total Pages: 140
Release: 2000
Genre: Traffic estimation
ISBN:

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