Topics in Conditional Heteroscedastic Time Series Modelling

Topics in Conditional Heteroscedastic Time Series Modelling
Author: 黃香
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 2017-01-27
Genre:
ISBN: 9781374775442

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This dissertation, "Topics in Conditional Heteroscedastic Time Series Modelling" by 黃香, Heung, Wong, was obtained from The University of Hong Kong (Pokfulam, Hong Kong) and is being sold pursuant to Creative Commons: Attribution 3.0 Hong Kong License. The content of this dissertation has not been altered in any way. We have altered the formatting in order to facilitate the ease of printing and reading of the dissertation. All rights not granted by the above license are retained by the author. DOI: 10.5353/th_b3123451 Subjects: Autoregression (Statistics) Heteroscedasticity Time-series analysis

Time Series Models

Time Series Models
Author: Manfred Deistler
Publisher: Springer Nature
Total Pages: 213
Release: 2022-10-21
Genre: Mathematics
ISBN: 3031132130

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This textbook provides a self-contained presentation of the theory and models of time series analysis. Putting an emphasis on weakly stationary processes and linear dynamic models, it describes the basic concepts, ideas, methods and results in a mathematically well-founded form and includes numerous examples and exercises. The first part presents the theory of weakly stationary processes in time and frequency domain, including prediction and filtering. The second part deals with multivariate AR, ARMA and state space models, which are the most important model classes for stationary processes, and addresses the structure of AR, ARMA and state space systems, Yule-Walker equations, factorization of rational spectral densities and Kalman filtering. Finally, there is a discussion of Granger causality, linear dynamic factor models and (G)ARCH models. The book provides a solid basis for advanced mathematics students and researchers in fields such as data-driven modeling, forecasting and filtering, which are important in statistics, control engineering, financial mathematics, econometrics and signal processing, among other subjects.

Design and Analysis of Time Series Experiments

Design and Analysis of Time Series Experiments
Author: Richard McCleary
Publisher: Oxford University Press
Total Pages: 393
Release: 2017-05-11
Genre: Social Science
ISBN: 0190661577

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Design and Analysis of Time Series Experiments presents the elements of statistical time series analysis while also addressing recent developments in research design and causal modeling. A distinguishing feature of the book is its integration of design and analysis of time series experiments. Readers learn not only how-to skills but also the underlying rationales for design features and analytical methods. ARIMA algebra, Box-Jenkins-Tiao models and model-building strategies, forecasting, and Box-Tiao impact models are developed in separate chapters. The presentation of the models and model-building assumes only exposure to an introductory statistics course, with more difficult mathematical material relegated to appendices. Separate chapters cover threats to statistical conclusion validity, internal validity, construct validity, and external validity with an emphasis on how these threats arise in time series experiments. Design structures for controlling the threats are presented and illustrated through examples. The chapters on statistical conclusion validity and internal validity introduce Bayesian methods, counterfactual causality, and synthetic control group designs. Building on the earlier time series books by McCleary and McDowall, Design and Analysis of Time Series Experiments includes recent developments in modeling, and considers design issues in greater detail than does any existing work. Drawing examples from criminology, economics, education, pharmacology, public policy, program evaluation, public health, and psychology, the text is addressed to researchers and graduate students in a wide range of behavioral, biomedical and social sciences. It will appeal to those who want to conduct or interpret time series experiments, as well as to those interested in research designs for causal inference.

Modeling Time Series with Conditional Heteroscedastic Structure

Modeling Time Series with Conditional Heteroscedastic Structure
Author: Ratnayake Mudiyanselage Isuru Panduka Ratnayake
Publisher:
Total Pages: 197
Release: 2021
Genre:
ISBN:

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"Models with a conditional heteroscedastic variance structure play a vital role in many applications, including modeling financial volatility. In this dissertation several existing formulations, motivated by the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedastic model, are further generalized to provide more effective modeling of price range data well as count data. First, the Conditional Autoregressive Range (CARR) model is generalized by introducing a composite range-based multiplicative component formulation named the Composite CARR model. This formulation enables a more effective modeling of the long and short-term volatility components present in price range data. It treats the long-term volatility as a stochastic component that in itself exhibits conditional volatility. The Generalized Feedback Asymmetric CARR model presented in this dissertation is a generalization of the Feedback Asymmetric CARR model, with lagged cross-conditional range terms added to allow complete feedback across the two equations that model upward and downward price ranges. A regime-switching Threshold Asymmetric CARR model is also proposed. Its formulation captures both asymmetry and non-linearity, which are two main characteristics that exist in the price range data. This model handles asymmetry and non-linearity better than its range-based competitors, based on the Akaike's Information Criteria. In addition to the above models, a Time Varying Zero Inflated Poisson Integer GARCH model is introduced. This model enables the modeling of time series of count data with excess number of zeroes where this excess varies with time. In this model, the zero inflation component is modeled either as a deterministic function of time or as a vector of stochastic variables"--Abstract, page iv.

Time Series: Theory and Methods

Time Series: Theory and Methods
Author: Peter J. Brockwell
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 604
Release: 1991
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9780387974293

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Here is a systematic account of linear time series models and their application to the modeling and prediction of data collected sequentially in time. It details techniques for handling data and offers a thorough understanding of their mathematical basis.

Estimation in Conditionally Heteroscedastic Time Series Models

Estimation in Conditionally Heteroscedastic Time Series Models
Author: Daniel Straumann
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 239
Release: 2006-01-27
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 3540269789

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In his seminal 1982 paper, Robert F. Engle described a time series model with a time-varying volatility. Engle showed that this model, which he called ARCH (autoregressive conditionally heteroscedastic), is well-suited for the description of economic and financial price. Nowadays ARCH has been replaced by more general and more sophisticated models, such as GARCH (generalized autoregressive heteroscedastic). This monograph concentrates on mathematical statistical problems associated with fitting conditionally heteroscedastic time series models to data. This includes the classical statistical issues of consistency and limiting distribution of estimators. Particular attention is addressed to (quasi) maximum likelihood estimation and misspecified models, along to phenomena due to heavy-tailed innovations. The used methods are based on techniques applied to the analysis of stochastic recurrence equations. Proofs and arguments are given wherever possible in full mathematical rigour. Moreover, the theory is illustrated by examples and simulation studies.