Credit Matters

Credit Matters
Author: Tamim A. Bayoumi
Publisher:
Total Pages: 30
Release: 2008
Genre: Bank assets
ISBN:

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This paper develops a framework for analyzing macro-financial linkages in the United States. We estimate the effects of a negative shock to banks' capital/asset ratio on lending standards, which in turn affect consumer credit, mortgages, and corporate loans, and the corresponding components of private spending (consumption, residential investment and business investment). In addition, our empirical model allows for feedback from spending and income to bank capital adequacy and credit. Hence, we trace the full credit cycle. An exogenous fall in the bank capital/asset ratio by one percentage point reduces real GDP by some 1 1/2 percent through its effects on credit availability, while an exogenous fall in demand of 1 percent of GDP is gradually magnified to around 2 percent through financial feedback effects.

A U.S. Financial Conditions Index

A U.S. Financial Conditions Index
Author: Mr.Andrew Swiston
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 37
Release: 2008-06-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1451870191

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This paper uses vector autoregressions and impulse-response functions to construct a U.S. financial conditions index (FCI). Credit availability—proxied by survey results on lending standards—is an important driver of the business cycle, accounting for over 20 percent of the typical contribution of financial factors to growth. A net tightening in lending standards of 20 percentage points reduces economic activity by 3⁄4 percent after one year and 11⁄4 percent after two years. Much of the impact of monetary policy on the economy also works through its effects on credit supply, which is evidence supporting the existence of a credit channel of monetary policy. Shocks to corporate bond yields, equity prices, and real exchange rates also contribute to fluctuations in the FCI. This FCI is an accurate predictor of real GDP growth, anticipating turning points in activity with a lead time of six to nine months. 15B

Lending Standards Over the Credit Cycle

Lending Standards Over the Credit Cycle
Author: Giacomo Rodano
Publisher:
Total Pages: 56
Release: 2018
Genre:
ISBN:

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We empirically identify the lending standards applied by banks to small and medium firms over the cycle. We exploit an institutional feature of the Italian credit market that generates a sharp discontinuity in the allocation of comparable firms into credit risk categories. Using loan-level data, we show that during the expansionary phase of the cycle, banks relax lending standards by narrowing the interest rate spreads between substandard and performing firms. During the contractionary phase of the cycle, the abrupt tightening of lending standards leads to the exclusion of substandard firms from credit. These firms then report significantly lower production, investment, and employment. Finally, we find that the drying up of the interbank market is an important factor determining the change in bank lending standards.

Working Paper

Working Paper
Author:
Publisher:
Total Pages: 132
Release: 1978
Genre: Consumer credit
ISBN:

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Tightening Credit Standards

Tightening Credit Standards
Author: Philippe Jorion
Publisher:
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2013
Genre:
ISBN:

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Over the latest twenty years, the average credit rating of U.S. corporations has trended down. This observation has been interpreted as evidence that rating agencies have been tightening credit standards. More formally, Blume, Lim, and MacKinlay (1998) model the credit rating process by an ordered probit regression and indeed find that the annual intercept, reflecting the average credit rating, has been drifting down, holding the effect of other variables constant. We reexamine the causes of the observed decreases in average credit ratings in several ways. First, we show that this downward trend does not apply to speculative-grade issuers. Second, our analysis of structural shifts in investment-grade issuers reveals that the apparent tightening of standards reported by Blume et al. (1998) can be attributed primarily to changes in accounting quality over time. Specifically, we find that the value-relevance of commonly used accounting ratios to creditors decreased and that earnings management increased for investment-grade firms, but not for speculative-grade firms. After incorporating changes in accounting quality into the credit ratings analysis, we find no evidence that rating agencies have tightened their credit standards. Our findings underscore the critical role of accounting quality in the credit ratings analysis.

Effects of Bank Capital on Lending

Effects of Bank Capital on Lending
Author: Joseph M. Berrospide
Publisher: DIANE Publishing
Total Pages: 50
Release: 2011-04
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1437939864

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The effect of bank capital on lending is a critical determinant of the linkage between financial conditions and real activity, and has received especial attention in the recent financial crisis. The authors use panel-regression techniques to study the lending of large bank holding companies (BHCs) and find small effects of capital on lending. They then consider the effect of capital ratios on lending using a variant of Lown and Morgan's VAR model, and again find modest effects of bank capital ratio changes on lending. The authors¿ estimated models are then used to understand recent developments in bank lending and, in particular, to consider the role of TARP-related capital injections in affecting these developments. Illus. A print on demand pub.

Inside the Crisis

Inside the Crisis
Author: Ms.Enrica Detragiache
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 28
Release: 2000-08-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 145185739X

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Using aggregate and bank level data for several countries, the paper studies what happens to the banking system in the aftermath of a banking crisis. Contemporary crises are not accompanied by declines in aggregate bank deposits, and credit does not fall relative to output, although the growth of both deposits and credit slows down substantially. Output recovery begins in the second year after the crisis and is not led by a resumption in credit growth. Banks, including the stronger ones, reallocate their asset portfolio away from loans.