China is the world's fourth largest electric power producer, and is expected to surpass Japan within the next two years to become the third largest power producer. During the past 15 years, China's total electricity generation more than tripled, increasing from about 300 TWh to about 1,000 TWh. Total installed generating capacity grew at an average of 8.2 percent per year, increasing from 66 to 214 GW. The share of China's installed capacity in Asia increased from 21 to 31 percent. The Chinese government plans to continue China's rapid growth rate in the power sector. Total installed capacity is planned to reach 300 GW by 2000, which will generate 1,400 TWh of electricity per year. China's long-term power sector development is subject to great uncertainty. Under the middle scenario, total capacity is expected to reach 700 GW by 2015, with annual generation of 3,330 TWh. Under the low and high scenarios, total capacity will reach 527-1,005 GW by 2015. The high scenario representing possible demand. To achieve this ambitious scenario, dramatic policy changes in favor of power development are required; however, there is no evidence that such policy changes will occur at this stage. Even under the high scenario, China's per capita annual electricity consumption would be only 3,000 kWh by 2015, less than half of the present per capita consumption for OECD countries. Under the low scenario, electricity shortages will seriously curb economic growth.