The Yield Curve and Real Activity

The Yield Curve and Real Activity
Author: Zuliu Hu
Publisher:
Total Pages: 38
Release: 2006
Genre:
ISBN:

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The financial press frequently suggest that the shape of yield curve reflects information about the prospects of the economy. This paper attempts to formalize the link between the yield curve and the real economic activity. A closed-form formula for the term structure of interest rates is derived. It is shown that the term structure embodies the market`s expectation about changes in the macroeconomic fundamental--the growth in real aggregate output of the economy. The paper then documents the use of bond market data for predicting GDP growth in the G-7 industrial countries. The results suggest that a simple measure of the slope of the yield curve, namely the yield spread, serves as a good predictor of future economic growth. The out-of-sample forecasting performance of the yield spread compares favorably with that of the alternative stock price-based model and a univariate time series (ARMA) model. One practical implication is that it may be useful to add some measure of the term structure to the list of leading indicators.

The Relationship Among Yield Curve and Real Economic Activity

The Relationship Among Yield Curve and Real Economic Activity
Author: Evelyn Munoz-Salas
Publisher:
Total Pages: 0
Release: 1998
Genre:
ISBN:

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This paper surveys whether there exists for Costa Rica any relationship between the expected growth of real economic activity and the slope of the yield curve or spread. Using monthly data from January 1989 to January 1996, the analysis indicates the existence of a clear relationship among the variables probably as a result of financial system reforms that permitted a major participation of market forces in yields determination.

Yield Spread as a Leading Indicator of Real Economic Activity

Yield Spread as a Leading Indicator of Real Economic Activity
Author: K. Kanagasabapathy
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 26
Release: 2002-05
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN:

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There is growing evidence that the yield spread could serve as a leading indicator of real economic activity. This paper is an attempt to test this hypothesis for the Indian economy by relating movements in the yield spread in the government securities market to movements in the index of industrial production. The results show that yield spread could, inter alia, be considered as a leading indicator of industrial activity in India.

The Term Structure of Interest Rates and Expected Economic Growth

The Term Structure of Interest Rates and Expected Economic Growth
Author: María Isabel Martínez Serna
Publisher:
Total Pages: 32
Release: 2005
Genre:
ISBN:

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Many papers have documented the positive relationship between the slope of the yield curve and future real economic activity in different countries and different time periods. One explanation for this economic link is based on monetary policy. However, empirical evidence (Estrella and Hardouvelis, 1991; Plosser and Rouwenhorst, 1994; Estrella and Mishkin, 1997; Moersch, 1996a,b; Kozicki, 1997; Dotsey, 1998; Ivanova et al., 2000) has shown that monetary policy does not appear to be the only source of the predictive power of the term spread. Therefore, the spread reflects other economic conditions beyond actions taken by monetary authorities. According to Harvey (1988), the forecasting ability of the term spread on economic growth is due to the fact that interest rates reflect the expectations of investors about the future economic situation when deciding about their plans for consumption and investment. Harvey (1988) uses the Consumption-Based Asset Pricing Model (CCAPM) to derive a forecasting equation that relates the slope of the term structure of interest rates to expected consumption growth. Harvey's model has been tested in several countries using ex post consumption or output growth as proxies of expected consumption growth. This paper complements and extends the evidence of Harvey's model by testing it for the case of Spain and by using a measure of expected consumption growth rather than proxies for the investors' expectations. The variables used are the Consumer Confidence Indicator and the Economic Sentiment Indicator (elaborated by the European Commission) that directly stand for the expectations of economic agents about the future economic situation in the next twelve months.

The Slope and the Curvature of the Yield Curve in Recession Forecasting

The Slope and the Curvature of the Yield Curve in Recession Forecasting
Author: Periklis Gogas
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 2019
Genre:
ISBN:

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In this paper, we investigate the ability of two popular models to forecast the deviation of GDP from its long-run trend, i.e. inflationary and output gaps. In doing so, we exploit the information provided by the yield curve that is documented in the literature as a good predictor of economic activity. We combine and train our forecasting model using interest rates from Treasury Bills and Government Bond rates for the period 1976Q3 to 2011Q4, in conjunction with the quarterly real seasonally adjusted GDP for the same period. Our results show that we can achieve an overall forecasting accuracy of 80% on out-of-sample data. However, our main focus in this paper is to construct a forecasting model for the recessions. Perfect accuracy in recession forecasting is achieved in more than one of the created models. The forecasting performance of our model strengthens the conviction that the yield curve can be a useful and accurate predictive tool.

Downturns and Changes in the Yield Slope

Downturns and Changes in the Yield Slope
Author: Mirko Abbritti
Publisher:
Total Pages: 29
Release: 2018
Genre:
ISBN:

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We show that the slope of the sovereign yield curve not only predicts future economic activity through its level but also through its changes. Our results with US data show that the inclusion of the first difference of the slope in the traditional yield slope regressions significantly increases the explanatory power of the yield curve. Decomposing the yield slope changes into those of the risk-neutral spread and of the term premium also brings insights into future economic activity forecast. We find that, while positive changes to the risk-neutral spread predict lower economic activity in the short-run (1-3 months), positive changes to the term premium predict lower economic activity in the medium run (3-12 months). These results are obtained at both monthly (industrial production, unemployment) and quarterly (GDP growth, unemployment) frequencies and also in probit-type recession regressions.