The Overreaction Hypothesis

The Overreaction Hypothesis
Author: Barry O'Grady
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 2006-08-01
Genre:
ISBN: 9781740674355

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Testing the Overreaction Hypothesis in the UK Stock Market by Using Inter & Intra Industry Contrarian Strategies

Testing the Overreaction Hypothesis in the UK Stock Market by Using Inter & Intra Industry Contrarian Strategies
Author: Angelos Pepelas
Publisher:
Total Pages: 79
Release: 2009
Genre:
ISBN:

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This study mainly supports the Overreaction Hypothesis in the Inter-industry and the intra-sector environment of the UK stock market. Firstly, it contradicts Haugen, (1996) plausible hypothesis that long-term reversals should not exist when value-weighted industry indexes are used in order to find it. Secondly, it is opposite to Kothari et al. (1995) results that long-term reversals are a result of the survivorship bias. Thirdly, our inter-industry results do not support the argument that the size effect is the main reason why long-term reversals occur in the stock market. Fourthly, the volatility tests do not support the claim that the excess profits coming from this inter-industry contrarian strategy are a risk premium. After all, if these excess inter-industry contrarian profits where truly a risk premium then losers should constantly be riskier in all volatility tests we ran. Fifthly and most importantly, our study supports the hypothesis that the inter-industry contrarian strategy using equally-weighted winner-loser portfolios consisted of value-weighted industry indexes leads to lower contrarian profits than these of the intra-industry contrarian strategy that uses equally-weighted winner-loser portfolios consisted of stocks. Possibly, the former strategy captures a lower level of arbitrage risk and a smaller dispersion of heterogeneous beliefs than the latter strategy does. Sixthly, our study supports the hypothesis that the further (less) investors look stock prices in the past, the more (less) they overreact to them creating higher (lower) long-term reversals. Both last hypotheses (five, six) support the main prediction of the overreaction Hypothesis.

Winners and Losers

Winners and Losers
Author: Andrew D. Clare
Publisher:
Total Pages: 20
Release: 1992
Genre:
ISBN:

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Inefficient Markets

Inefficient Markets
Author: Andrei Shleifer
Publisher: OUP Oxford
Total Pages: 225
Release: 2000-03-09
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0191606898

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The efficient markets hypothesis has been the central proposition in finance for nearly thirty years. It states that securities prices in financial markets must equal fundamental values, either because all investors are rational or because arbitrage eliminates pricing anomalies. This book describes an alternative approach to the study of financial markets: behavioral finance. This approach starts with an observation that the assumptions of investor rationality and perfect arbitrage are overwhelmingly contradicted by both psychological and institutional evidence. In actual financial markets, less than fully rational investors trade against arbitrageurs whose resources are limited by risk aversion, short horizons, and agency problems. The book presents and empirically evaluates models of such inefficient markets. Behavioral finance models both explain the available financial data better than does the efficient markets hypothesis and generate new empirical predictions. These models can account for such anomalies as the superior performance of value stocks, the closed end fund puzzle, the high returns on stocks included in market indices, the persistence of stock price bubbles, and even the collapse of several well-known hedge funds in 1998. By summarizing and expanding the research in behavioral finance, the book builds a new theoretical and empirical foundation for the economic analysis of real-world markets.