The Non-adjustment of Nominal Interest Rates

The Non-adjustment of Nominal Interest Rates
Author: Lawrence H. Summers
Publisher:
Total Pages: 80
Release: 1982
Genre: Econometrics
ISBN:

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This paper critically re-examines theory and evidence on the relation- ship between interest rates and inflation. It concludes that there is no evidence that interest rates respond to inflation in the way that classical or Keynesian theories suggest, For the period 1860-1940, it does not appear that inflationary expectations had any significant impact on rates of inflation in the short or long run. During the post-war period interest rates do appear to be affected by inflation. However, the effect is much smaller than any theory which recognizes tax effects would predict. Further- more, all the power in the inflation interest rate relationship comes from the 1965-1971 period. Within the 1950's or 1970's, the relationship is both statistically and substantively insignificant. Various explanations for the failure of the theoretically predicted relationship to hold are considered. The relationship between inflation and interest rates remains weak at the even low frequencies. This is taken as evidence that cyclical factors or errors in measuring inflation expectations cannot account for the failure of the results to bear out Fisher's theoretical prediction. Rather, comparison of real interest rates and stock market yields suggests that Fisher was correct in pointing to money illusion as the cause of the imperfect adjustment of interest rates to expected inflation.

The Nonadjustment of Nominal Interest Rates

The Nonadjustment of Nominal Interest Rates
Author: Lawrence H. Summers
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 1984
Genre:
ISBN:

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This paper critically re-examines theory and evidence on the relation- ship between interest rates and inflation. It concludes that there is no evidence that interest rates respond to inflation in the way that classical or Keynesian theories suggest, For the period 1860-1940, it does not appear that inflationary expectations had any significant impact on rates of inflation in the short or long run. During the post-war period interest rates do appear to be affected by inflation. However, the effect is much smaller than any theory which recognizes tax effects would predict. Further- more, all the power in the inflation interest rate relationship comes from the 1965-1971 period. Within the 1950's or 1970's, the relationship is both statistically and substantively insignificant. Various explanations for the failure of the theoretically predicted relationship to hold are considered. The relationship between inflation and interest rates remains weak at the even low frequencies. This is taken as evidence that cyclical factors or errors in measuring inflation expectations cannot account for the failure of the results to bear out Fisher's theoretical prediction. Rather, comparison of real interest rates and stock market yields suggests that Fisher was correct in pointing to money illusion as the cause of the imperfect adjustment of interest rates to expected inflation

Inflation, Nominal Interest Rates, and the Variability of Output

Inflation, Nominal Interest Rates, and the Variability of Output
Author: Mr.Bankim Chadha
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 36
Release: 1996-10-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1451853165

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This paper examines the distribution of output around capacity when money demand is a nonlinear function of the nominal interest rate such that nominal interest rates cannot become negative. When fluctuations in output result primarily from disturbances to the money market, the variance of output is shown to be an increasing function of the trend inflation rate. When they result from disturbances to the goods market, the variance of output is a decreasing function of the trend inflation rate. When both disturbances are significant, there exists, in general, a critical non-zero trend inflation rate that minimizes the variance of output.

Macroeconomics, Prices, and Quantities

Macroeconomics, Prices, and Quantities
Author: Arthur M. Okun
Publisher: Brookings Institution Press
Total Pages: 305
Release: 1983
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9780815784852

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The Money Illusion

The Money Illusion
Author: Irving Fisher
Publisher: Simon and Schuster
Total Pages: 152
Release: 2014-03-27
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1627939997

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In economics, money illusion refers to the tendency of people to think of currency in nominal, rather than real, terms. In other words, the numerical/face value (nominal value) of money is mistaken for its purchasing power (real value). This is false, as modern fiat currencies have no inherent value and their real value is derived from their ability to be exchanged for goods and used for payment of taxes. The term was coined by John Maynard Keynes in the early twentieth century. Almost every one is subject to the "Money Illusion" in respect to his own country's currency. This seems to him to be stationary while the money of other countries seems to change. It may seem strange but it is true that we see the rise or fall of foreign money better than we see that of our own.-IRVING FISHER

The Degree of Fiscal Illusion in Interest Rates

The Degree of Fiscal Illusion in Interest Rates
Author: Joe Peek
Publisher:
Total Pages: 26
Release: 1984
Genre: Interest rates
ISBN:

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This article demonstrates why the procedures used in previous studies do not permit inference about the relationship between interestrates and taxes. We present a model that leads to direct estimates of the degree to which interest rates respond to changes in tax rates. The empirical results imply that the adjustment of taxable interest rates has been large enough to render after-tax yields impervious to tax rate changes. Further, tax-exempt yields are unaffected by changes in taxrates. Thus, there is no evidence of fiscal illusion in interest rates.

The Macroeconomic Mix to Stop Stagflation

The Macroeconomic Mix to Stop Stagflation
Author: J.O.N. Perkins
Publisher: Springer
Total Pages: 201
Release: 1979-02-22
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1349160393

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The Case for Rapid Growth

The Case for Rapid Growth
Author: James K. Galbraith
Publisher:
Total Pages: 96
Release: 1983
Genre: Monetary policy
ISBN:

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A Macroeconomics Reader

A Macroeconomics Reader
Author: Brian Snowdon
Publisher: Routledge
Total Pages: 692
Release: 1997-07-10
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1134729081

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A Macroeconomics Reader brings together a collection of key readings in modern macroeconomics. Each article has been carefully chosen to provide the reader with accessible, non-technical, and reflective papers which critically assess important areas and current controversies within modern macroeconomics.The book is divided into six parts, each with