The Myth of Comoving Commodity Prices

The Myth of Comoving Commodity Prices
Author: Mr.Paul Cashin
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 21
Release: 1999-12-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1451858329

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There is a common perception that the prices of unrelated commodities move together. This paper re-examines this notion, using a measure of comovement of economic time series called concordance. Concordance measures the proportion of time that the prices of two commodities are concurrently in the same boom period or same slump period. Using data on the prices of several unrelated commodities, the paper finds no evidence of comovement in commodity prices. The results carry an important policy implication, as the study provides no support for earlier claims of irrational trading behavior by participants in world commodity markets.

The Myth of Co-Moving Commodity Prices

The Myth of Co-Moving Commodity Prices
Author: C. John McDermott
Publisher:
Total Pages: 19
Release: 2005
Genre:
ISBN:

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There is a common perception that the prices of unrelated commodities move together. This paper re-examines this notion, using a measure of co-movement of economic time series called concordance. Concordance measures the proportion of time that the prices of two commodities are concurrently in the same boom period or same slump period. Using data on the prices of several unrelated commodities, the paper finds no evidence of co-movement in commodity prices. The results carry an important policy implication, as the study provides no support for earlier claims of irrational trading behaviour by participants in world commodity markets.

The Myth of Co-moving Commodity Prices

The Myth of Co-moving Commodity Prices
Author: Paul Cashin
Publisher:
Total Pages: 0
Release: 1999
Genre: Business cycles
ISBN:

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Re-examines the notion that the prices of unrelated commodities move together, using a measure of co-movement of economic time series called concordance.

The Effects on Growth of Commodity Price Uncertainty and Shocks

The Effects on Growth of Commodity Price Uncertainty and Shocks
Author: Jan Dehn
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Total Pages: 66
Release: 2000
Genre: Agricultural prices
ISBN:

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The author estimates the effects on growth of commodity price shocks, and uncertainty within an established empirical growth model. Ex-post shocks, and ex-ante uncertainty have been treated in the empirical literature as if they were synonymous. But they are distinct concepts, and it is both theoretically, and empirically inappropriate to treat them as synonymous. He shows that the interaction between policy, and aid is robust to the inclusion of variables capturing commodity price movements. More important, his approach departs in three ways from earlier empirical studies of the subject: 1) It deals with issues of endogeneity, without incurring an excessive loss of efficiency. 2) It defines the dependent variable to allow an assessment of the longer-term implications of temporary trade shocks. 3) It imposes no priors on how commodity price movements affect growth, but compares and contrasts a range of competing shock, and uncertainty specifications. The author resolves the disagreement about the long-run effect of positive shocks on growth, finding that positive shocks have no long-run impact on growth (that windfalls from trade shocks do not translate into sustainable increases in income). He shows that negative shocks have large, highly significant, and negative effects on growth, but that commodity price uncertainty does not affect growth.

Primary Commodities and Economic Development

Primary Commodities and Economic Development
Author: Stephan Pfaffenzeller
Publisher: Routledge
Total Pages: 192
Release: 2016-08-12
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1317745361

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Our post-industrialised global economy has achieved spectacular success and pushed back poverty to an extent previously thought impossible. This success is ultimately based on the continued supply of both renewable and non-renewable resources. Will this supply of primary commodities remain sufficient to support global economic growth? Why are the gains for countries specialising on commodity production often so limited? Can commodity dependent countries diversify into other economic activities? Primary Commodities and Economic Development addresses the changing position of primary commodities in the world economy and investigates their importance for commodity exporting under-developed countries. The book commences with a review of the theoretical foundations for inter-dependence between commodity specialisation and economic underdevelopment. Having related the role of commodity exports and the commodity terms of trade to growth models relevant to developing economies, the discussion shifts to an in-depth review of the statistical properties of the commodity terms of trade. The review of commodity price trends at the global level is then rounded off with a series of country case studies showing the concrete threats and opportunities surrounding commodity specialization. This book will be of essential reading for those with an interest in development economics and international economics, as well as for scholars of natural resource and agricultural economics.

Commodities, Governance and Economic Development under Globalization

Commodities, Governance and Economic Development under Globalization
Author: Machiko Nissanke
Publisher: Springer
Total Pages: 396
Release: 2010-01-20
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0230274021

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Alfred Maizels' work on commodity trade and prices documented trends in a major area of international economic relations. This book elaborates the ideas in the tradition of Maizels' contributons, and discusses and extends these theories in relation to current problems.

World Economic Outlook, May 2000

World Economic Outlook, May 2000
Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 308
Release: 2000-04-12
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9781557759368

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The World Economic Outlook, published twica a year in English, French, Spanish, and Arabic, presents IMF staff economists analyses of global economic developments during the near and medium term. Chapters give an overview of the world economy; consider issues affecting industrial countries, developing countries, and economies in transition to market; and address topics of pressing current interest. Annexes, boxes, charts, and an extensive statistical appendix augment the text.

IMF Research Bulletin

IMF Research Bulletin
Author:
Publisher:
Total Pages: 244
Release: 2000
Genre: International finance
ISBN:

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