The More the Merrier? A Machine Learning Algorithm for Optimal Pooling of Panel Data

The More the Merrier? A Machine Learning Algorithm for Optimal Pooling of Panel Data
Author: Marijn A. Bolhuis
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 21
Release: 2020-02-28
Genre: Computers
ISBN: 1513529978

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We leverage insights from machine learning to optimize the tradeoff between bias and variance when estimating economic models using pooled datasets. Specifically, we develop a simple algorithm that estimates the similarity of economic structures across countries and selects the optimal pool of countries to maximize out-of-sample prediction accuracy of a model. We apply the new alogrithm by nowcasting output growth with a panel of 102 countries and are able to significantly improve forecast accuracy relative to alternative pools. The algortihm improves nowcast performance for advanced economies, as well as emerging market and developing economies, suggesting that machine learning techniques using pooled data could be an important macro tool for many countries.

Predicting Fiscal Crises: A Machine Learning Approach

Predicting Fiscal Crises: A Machine Learning Approach
Author: Klaus-Peter Hellwig
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 66
Release: 2021-05-27
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1513573586

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In this paper I assess the ability of econometric and machine learning techniques to predict fiscal crises out of sample. I show that the econometric approaches used in many policy applications cannot outperform a simple heuristic rule of thumb. Machine learning techniques (elastic net, random forest, gradient boosted trees) deliver significant improvements in accuracy. Performance of machine learning techniques improves further, particularly for developing countries, when I expand the set of potential predictors and make use of algorithmic selection techniques instead of relying on a small set of variables deemed important by the literature. There is considerable agreement across learning algorithms in the set of selected predictors: Results confirm the importance of external sector stock and flow variables found in the literature but also point to demographics and the quality of governance as important predictors of fiscal crises. Fiscal variables appear to have less predictive value, and public debt matters only to the extent that it is owed to external creditors.

Panel Nowcasting for Countries Whose Quarterly GDPs are Unavailable

Panel Nowcasting for Countries Whose Quarterly GDPs are Unavailable
Author: Omer Faruk Akbal
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 36
Release: 2023-08-04
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN:

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Quarterly GDP statistics facilitate timely economic assessment, but the availability of such data are limited for more than 60 developing economies, including about 20 countries in sub-Saharan Africa as well as more than two-thirds of fragile and conflict-affected states. To address this limited data availablity, this paper proposes a panel approach that utilizes a statistical relationship estimated from countries where data are available, to estimate quarterly GDP statistics for countries that do not publish such statistics by leveraging the indicators readily available for many countries. This framework demonstrates potential, especially when applied for similar country groups, and could provide valuable real-time insights into economic conditions supported by empirical evidence.

Analytics in Finance and Risk Management

Analytics in Finance and Risk Management
Author: Nga Thi Hong Nguyen
Publisher: CRC Press
Total Pages: 397
Release: 2023-12-13
Genre: Technology & Engineering
ISBN: 1003808581

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This book presents contemporary issues and challenges in finance and risk management in a time of rapid transformation due to technological advancements. It includes research articles based on financial and economic data and intends to cover the emerging role of analytics in financial management, asset management, and risk management. Analytics in Finance and Risk Management covers statistical techniques for data analysis in finance It explores applications in finance and risk management, covering empirical properties of financial systems. It addresses data science involving the study of statistical and computational models and includes basic and advanced concepts. The chapters incorporate the latest methodologies and challenges facing financial and risk management and illustrate related issues and their implications in the real world. The primary users of this book will include researchers, academicians, postgraduate students, professionals in engineering and business analytics, managers, consultants, and advisors in IT firms, financial markets, and services domains.

KI 2022: Advances in Artificial Intelligence

KI 2022: Advances in Artificial Intelligence
Author: Ralph Bergmann
Publisher: Springer Nature
Total Pages: 243
Release: 2022-09-16
Genre: Computers
ISBN: 3031157915

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This book constitutes the refereed proceedings of the 45th German Conference on Artificial Intelligence, KI 2022, held in September 2022. The 12 full and 5 short papers were carefully reviewed and selected from 51 submissions. Additionally, five abstracts of invited talks are included. As well-established annual conference series KI is dedicated to research on theory and applications across all methods and topic areas of AI research. Due to COVID-19 the conference was held virtually. The chapter "Dynamically Self-Adjusting Gaussian Processes for Data Stream Modelling" is available open access under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License via link.springer.com.

Managing Technology Integration for Human Resources in Industry 5.0

Managing Technology Integration for Human Resources in Industry 5.0
Author: Sharma, Naman
Publisher: IGI Global
Total Pages: 314
Release: 2023-02-03
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 166846747X

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Although the transition between the first three industrial revolutions took more than a century, Industry 4.0 is progressing quickly. The emergence of digitalization has been rapid thanks to the development of cutting-edge technologies. Though we are witnessing this rapid technological decentralization and interconnectivity at present, organizations and researchers are already discussing Industry 5.0 where full integration of the human side of business and intelligent systems is expected. In this scenario, it is essential to look forward to such strategic workplaces that allow a combination of humans and technology to assure a high degree of automation merged with the cognitive skills of business leaders. Managing Technology Integration for Human Resources in Industry 5.0 provides insights into the impact of the Industrial Revolution 4.0 on human resources. It provides insights for both industry and academia to assist them in teaching and training the next generation leaders through universities and corporate training. Covering topics such as business performance, human technology integration, and digitalization, this premier reference source is an essential resource for human resource managers, IT managers, organizational executives and leaders, entrepreneurs, students and educators of higher education, librarians, researchers, and academicians.

Machine Learning Algorithms

Machine Learning Algorithms
Author: Fuwei Li
Publisher:
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2022
Genre:
ISBN: 9783031163760

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This book demonstrates the optimal adversarial attacks against several important signal processing algorithms. Through presenting the optimal attacks in wireless sensor networks, array signal processing, principal component analysis, etc, the authors reveal the robustness of the signal processing algorithms against adversarial attacks. Since data quality is crucial in signal processing, the adversary that can poison the data will be a significant threat to signal processing. Therefore, it is necessary and urgent to investigate the behavior of machine learning algorithms in signal processing under adversarial attacks. The authors in this book mainly examine the adversarial robustness of three commonly used machine learning algorithms in signal processing respectively: linear regression, LASSO-based feature selection, and principal component analysis (PCA). As to linear regression, the authors derive the optimal poisoning data sample and the optimal feature modifications, and also demonstrate the effectiveness of the attack against a wireless distributed learning system. The authors further extend the linear regression to LASSO-based feature selection and study the best strategy to mislead the learning system to select the wrong features. The authors find the optimal attack strategy by solving a bi-level optimization problem and also illustrate how this attack influences array signal processing and weather data analysis. In the end, the authors consider the adversarial robustness of the subspace learning problem. The authors examine the optimal modification strategy under the energy constraints to delude the PCA-based subspace learning algorithm. This book targets researchers working in machine learning, electronic information, and information theory as well as advanced-level students studying these subjects. R&D engineers who are working in machine learning, adversarial machine learning, robust machine learning, and technical consultants working on the security and robustness of machine learning are likely to purchase this book as a reference guide.

Machine Learning and Causality: The Impact of Financial Crises on Growth

Machine Learning and Causality: The Impact of Financial Crises on Growth
Author: Mr.Andrew J Tiffin
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 30
Release: 2019-11-01
Genre: Computers
ISBN: 1513518305

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Machine learning tools are well known for their success in prediction. But prediction is not causation, and causal discovery is at the core of most questions concerning economic policy. Recently, however, the literature has focused more on issues of causality. This paper gently introduces some leading work in this area, using a concrete example—assessing the impact of a hypothetical banking crisis on a country’s growth. By enabling consideration of a rich set of potential nonlinearities, and by allowing individually-tailored policy assessments, machine learning can provide an invaluable complement to the skill set of economists within the Fund and beyond.

MASTERING DATA MINING: THE ART AND SCIENCE OF CUSTOMER RELATIONSHIP MANAGEMENT

MASTERING DATA MINING: THE ART AND SCIENCE OF CUSTOMER RELATIONSHIP MANAGEMENT
Author: Michael J. A. Berry
Publisher:
Total Pages: 512
Release: 2008-09-01
Genre:
ISBN: 9788126518258

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Special Features: · Best-in-class data mining techniques for solving critical problems in all areas of business· Explains how to pick the right data mining techniques for specific problems· Shows how to perform analysis and evaluate results· Features real-world examples from across various industry sectors· Companion Web site with updates on data mining products and service providers About The Book: Companies have invested in building data warehouses to capture vast amounts of customer information. The payoff comes with mining or getting access to the data within this information gold mine to make better business decisions. Readers and reviewers loved Berry and Linoff's first book, Data Mining Techniques, because the authors so clearly illustrate practical techniques with real benefits for improved marketing and sales. Mastering Data Mining takes off from there-assuming readers know the basic techniques covered in the first book, the authors focus on how to best apply these techniques to real business cases. They start with simple applications and work up to the most powerful and sophisticated examples over the course of about 20 cases. (Ralph Kimball used this same approach in his highly successful Data Warehouse Toolkit). As with their first book, Mastering Data Mining is sufficiently technical for database analysts, but is accessible to technically savvy business and marketing managers. It should also appeal to a new breed of database marketing managers.

Deep Learning

Deep Learning
Author: Josh Patterson
Publisher: "O'Reilly Media, Inc."
Total Pages: 532
Release: 2017-07-28
Genre: Computers
ISBN: 1491914211

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Although interest in machine learning has reached a high point, lofty expectations often scuttle projects before they get very far. How can machine learning—especially deep neural networks—make a real difference in your organization? This hands-on guide not only provides the most practical information available on the subject, but also helps you get started building efficient deep learning networks. Authors Adam Gibson and Josh Patterson provide theory on deep learning before introducing their open-source Deeplearning4j (DL4J) library for developing production-class workflows. Through real-world examples, you’ll learn methods and strategies for training deep network architectures and running deep learning workflows on Spark and Hadoop with DL4J. Dive into machine learning concepts in general, as well as deep learning in particular Understand how deep networks evolved from neural network fundamentals Explore the major deep network architectures, including Convolutional and Recurrent Learn how to map specific deep networks to the right problem Walk through the fundamentals of tuning general neural networks and specific deep network architectures Use vectorization techniques for different data types with DataVec, DL4J’s workflow tool Learn how to use DL4J natively on Spark and Hadoop