The Impact of U.S. Monetary Policy on Capital Flows to Emerging Market Economies

The Impact of U.S. Monetary Policy on Capital Flows to Emerging Market Economies
Author: Katia Rocha
Publisher:
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2022
Genre:
ISBN:

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This paper examines the potential impact of US monetary policy normalization on portfolio capital flows to Emerging Markets Economies (EME) explicitly taking into account the unconventional US monetary policy. We build an econometric model of the drivers of capital flows to EMEs and the results suggest that Brazil maybe less vulnerable than EMEs to changes in US monetary policy.

The US Monetary Policy Normalization

The US Monetary Policy Normalization
Author: Tae Soo Kang
Publisher:
Total Pages: 6
Release: 2019
Genre:
ISBN:

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Most previous studies have shown that push factors have had a greater impact on capital outflows in emerging economies than pull factors. Meanwhile, in May 2018, the US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell addressed the controversy over capital movements to emerging economies after the global financial crisis. Powell said the inflows of capital into emerging economies are unlikely to have been caused by the Fed's interest rate policy. Powell's speech contains "implied" warnings that the US monetary policy is not a triggering force of a capital outflow in emerging economies. This is why Powell's speech is adding to the difficulty of policy responses in emerging countries. This, in turn, suggests that it is necessary to check the determinants of global capital flows. In addition, the impact of US monetary policy on Korea's financial markets and capital outflows needs to be analyzed in depth. In this paper, the discussion of push (external) vs. pull (internal) factors of capital flow is examined using panel data of 47 countries. Our empirical results show that the push and pull factors determining capital flows to advanced economies and emerging market economies are different. This study also analyzes the impact of the normalization of US monetary policy on the domestic financial market and foreign exchange market by using the TVP-VAR model. Our analysis shows that US credit spread shock, which is an indicator of uncertainty in international financial markets, has had a negative impact on domestic financial markets and capital inflows. On the other hand, the impact of the US policy rate hike after 2015 was limited.

If the Fed Acts, How Do You React? The Liftoff Effect on Capital Flows

If the Fed Acts, How Do You React? The Liftoff Effect on Capital Flows
Author: Swarnali Ahmed
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 39
Release: 2015-12-09
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1513500724

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After more than six years of ultra-low interest rates, a Fed liftoff (rate hike) is just a matter of time. This paper goes back to history to understand the spillover effect – or what is termed in the paper as the ‘liftoff’ effect – of the previous five Fed liftoffs on capital flows. Using a dynamic panel framework covering 48 countries (27 advanced economies, 21 emerging markets) over the period 1982-2006, the paper shows that the liftoff effect on capital flows (total private, portfolio) is significantly higher for emerging market economies (EM) than advanced market economies (AM). EM capital flows are hit indiscriminately one quarter before liftoff, suggesting that markets usually price in the liftoff before the actual event. Over time, there is a bit more variation among EM as policy responses/framework can to some extent dampen market reactions. The findings are similar to the unfolding of events during the taper tantrum episode indicating that, even though current circumstances are very different, history could still provide a good guidance.

Two Targets, Two Instruments

Two Targets, Two Instruments
Author: Mr.Jonathan David Ostry
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 25
Release: 2012-02-29
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1475554281

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Staff Discussion Notes showcase the latest policy-related analysis and research being developed by individual IMF staff and are published to elicit comment and to further debate. These papers are generally brief and written in nontechnical language, and so are aimed at a broad audience interested in economic policy issues. This Web-only series replaced Staff Position Notes in January 2011.

American Monetary Policy Adjustment and Its Impacts

American Monetary Policy Adjustment and Its Impacts
Author: Liu Weiping
Publisher: Springer Nature
Total Pages: 458
Release: 2024-01-16
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9819978106

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This book reviews the historical evolution of U.S. monetary policy, and then uses various methods such as mathematical models and econometric analysis to study the impact of U.S. monetary policy adjustments on the domestic economy and the spillover effects on the world economy. Finally, it summarizes the challenges faced by the Chinese economy in the post financial crisis era and proposes relevant countermeasures and suggestions for China to respond to U.S. monetary policy adjustments.

Gross Private Capital Flows to Emerging Markets

Gross Private Capital Flows to Emerging Markets
Author: Erlend Nier
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 35
Release: 2014-10-27
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1498352928

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This paper assesses empirically the key drivers of private capital flows to a large sample of emerging market economies in the last decade. It analyzes the effect of the global financial cycle, measured by the VIX, on capital flows and investigates the role of fundamentals and country characteristics in mitigating or amplifying its effect. Using interaction models, we find the effect of the VIX to be non-linear. For low levels of the VIX, capital flows are driven by fundamental factors. During periods of stress, the VIX becomes the dominant driver of capital flows while other determinants, with the exception of interest rate differentials, lose statistical significance. Our results also suggest that the effect of global financial conditions on gross private capital flows increases with the host country’s level of financial sector development. Finally, our results imply that countries cannot fully insulate themselves from global financial shocks, unless creating a fragmented global financial system.

Emerging Market Volatility

Emerging Market Volatility
Author: Ms.Ratna Sahay
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 61
Release: 2014-10-02
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1484356004

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Accommodative monetary policies in advanced economies have spurred increased capital inflows into emerging markets since the global financial crisis. Starting in May 2013, when the Federal Reserve publicly discussed its plans for tapering unconventional monetary policies, these emerging markets have experienced financial turbulence at the same that their domestic economic activity has slowed. This paper examines their experiences and policy responses and draws broad policy lessons. For emerging markets, good macroeconomic fundamentals matter, and early and decisive measures to strengthen macroeconomic policies and reduce vulnerabilities help dampen market reactions to external shocks. For advanced economies, clear and effective communication about the exit from unconventional monetary policy can and did help later to reduce the risk of excessive market volatility. And for the global community, enhanced global cooperation, including a strong global financial safety net, offers emerging markets effective protection against excessive volatility.

Why Follow the Fed? Monetary Policy in Times of US Tightening

Why Follow the Fed? Monetary Policy in Times of US Tightening
Author: Gonzalo Huertas
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 68
Release: 2022-12-09
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN:

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I conduct interviews with 32 Central Bankers from Emerging Markets and present five unifying themes that explain their behavior when reacting to a U.S. monetary tightening. I then estimate the impulse response functions of their two main monetary tools, the policy rate and foreign exchange interventions, to an increase in the U.S. rate, using the answers from the interviews as a guide for the best econometric specification. I find that most Central Banks react to a U.S. tightening by raising domestic rates, regardless of the exchange rate regime, but their reasons for doing so vary – from controlling inflation to preventing capital outflows.