China's Local Government Bond Market

China's Local Government Bond Market
Author: W. Raphael Lam
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 21
Release: 2018-10-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1484379128

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Local governments play a significant role in China’s public finance and fiscal operations. The size of local government debt has grown rapidly over the past years, exceeding the stock of sovereign debt in China. How does this development compare to other countries and what policies can foster the sound development of the bond markets? This paper finds that despite its rapid growth, the local government bond market is still underdeveloped. Severe impediments—low liquidity, weak credit discipline, structural fiscal deficit in local governments—have become more visible. Reforms to develop a sound local government bond market should harmonize tax and regulations, build liquidity, and advance fiscal reforms to tighten off-budget borrowing and address intergovernmental imbalances.

German Bond Yields and Debt Supply: Is There a “Bund Premium”?

German Bond Yields and Debt Supply: Is There a “Bund Premium”?
Author: Anne-Charlotte Paret
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 34
Release: 2019-11-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1513519654

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Are Bunds special? This paper estimates the “Bund premium” as the difference in convenience yields between other sovereign safe assets and German government bonds adjusted for sovereign credit risk, liquidity and swap market frictions. A higher premium suggests less substitutability of sovereign bonds. We document a rise in the “Bund premium” in the post-crisis period. We show that there is a negative relationship of the premium with the relative supply of German sovereign bonds, which is more pronounced for higher maturities and when risk aversion proxied by bond market volatility is high. Going forward, we expect German government debt supply to remain scarce, with important implications for the ECB’s monetary policy strategy.

Sub-National Credit Risk and Sovereign Bailouts

Sub-National Credit Risk and Sovereign Bailouts
Author: Ms.Eva Jenkner
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 29
Release: 2014-01-30
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1484398874

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Studies have shown that markets may underprice sub-national governments’ risk on the implicit assumption that these entities would be bailed out by their central government in case of financial difficulties. However, the question of whether sovereigns pay a premium on their own borrowing as a result of (implicitly or explicitly) guaranteeing sub-entities’ debt has been explored only little. We use an event study approach with separate equations for two levels of government to test for a simultaneous increase in sovereign risk premia and decrease in sub-national risk premia—or a de facto transfer of risk from the latter to the former—on the day a sovereign bailout is announced. Using daily financial market data for Spain and its autonomous regions from January 2010 to June 2013, we find support for our risk transfer hypothesis. We estimate that the Spanish sovereign’s spread may have increased by around 70 basis points as a result of the central government’s support for fiscally distressed comunidades autónomas.

Sub-National Government’s Risk Premia

Sub-National Government’s Risk Premia
Author: Mr.Sergio Sola
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 39
Release: 2015-05-29
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1513538640

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This paper examines the determinants of sub-national governments risk premia using secondary market data for U.S., Canada, Australia and Germany. It finds that, as for central governments, fiscal fundamentals matter in the pricing of risk premia, and sub-national governments with higher public debt and larger deficits pay higher premia. However, this relationship is not uniform across countries. Market pricing mechanisms are less effective in presence of explicit or implicit guarantees from the central government. Specifically, we show that in pricing risk premia of sub-national governments, markets are less responsive to fiscal fundamental when sub-national governments depend on high transfers from the central government, i.e., when there is some form of implicit guarantee from the center. Using primary market data, the paper also looks at whether transfer dependency from the central government influences sub-national governments’ incentive to access markets. We show that high transfer dependency lowers the probability of sub-national governments to borrow on capital markets.

Subnational Capital Markets in Developing Countries

Subnational Capital Markets in Developing Countries
Author: Mila Freire
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Total Pages: 700
Release: 2004
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9780821354643

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This publication has been prepared by staff members of the World Bank and selected guest contributors. It sets out a framework to study subnational governments as borrowers and the range of credit markets in which they may operate. It also contains a number of case studies which detail the recent experience of 18 countries in developing markets for subnational borrowers., and offer insights into lessons to be drawn on fostering responsible credit market access within a framework of fiscal and financial discipline. Other issues discussed include: the issuing of municipal debt and its characteristics, and the role of macroeconomic conditions and market development in the success or failure of those borrowings.

The Constitutional Boundaries of European Fiscal Federalism

The Constitutional Boundaries of European Fiscal Federalism
Author: Brady Gordon
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Total Pages: 565
Release: 2022-04-14
Genre: Law
ISBN: 1108904904

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This book bridges the study of European constitutionalism with the study of 'fiscal federalism' – the subfield of public economics concerned with structuring public finances between different levels of government in federal states. On one axis, this book delves into European Union and Member State constitutional law from all EU Member States in order to investigate and identify the existence of permanent constitutional boundaries that will impinge upon the selection of proposed models for EU fiscal federalism. On the second axis, this book engages the study of fiscal federalism in order to determine which institutional configurations known to that field remain legally and economically implementable within those boundaries. It provides a far-reaching investigation of which models of fiscal federalism are compatible with the constitutional boundaries of the European legal order.

Guidance Note For Developing Government Local Currency Bond Markets

Guidance Note For Developing Government Local Currency Bond Markets
Author: International Monetary Fund
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 157
Release: 2021-03-12
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1513573926

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This guidance note was prepared by International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank Group staff under a project undertaken with the support of grants from the Financial Sector Reform and Strengthening Initiative, (FIRST).The aim of the project was to deliver a report that provides emerging market and developing economies with guidance and a roadmap in developing their local currency bond markets (LCBMs). This note will also inform technical assistance missions in advising authorities on the formulation of policies to deepen LCBMs.