The Track Record of the Commission Forecasts

The Track Record of the Commission Forecasts
Author: Filip Keereman
Publisher:
Total Pages: 88
Release: 1999
Genre: Economic forecasting
ISBN:

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Recoge: El registro de datos de los pronósticos de la Comisión. -Los pronósticos en la Comisión Europea.- Variables y datos.- Método y panorámica.- Características básicas de los datos de muestra.- Características básicas de los errores de pronóstico.- Persistencia de errores de pronóstico.- Imparcialidad.- Eficiencia.- Exactitud a través del tiempo.- Exactitud direccional.- Reconocimiento de ciclos.- Revisión de los pronósticos a través del ciclo.- El contexto internacional.- La interdependencia de los errores de pronóstico.- La susceptibilidad de los errores de pronóstico a un conjunto alternativo de datos de realización.- Comparación con pronósticos externos.

The Accuracy of the European Commission's Forecasts Re-examined

The Accuracy of the European Commission's Forecasts Re-examined
Author: Laura González Cabanillas
Publisher:
Total Pages: 53
Release: 2012
Genre: Economic forecasting
ISBN: 9789279229978

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"This paper analyses the Commission's forecast track record, by building on previous analyses. The extension of the observation period to 2011 allows a first analysis of forecast accuracy during the years of the economic and financial crisis. Over the full timespan, forecasts for the EU and euro area are found to be generally unbiased. The same holds true for the outlook for most Member States, largely confirming earlier results. Moreover, the Commission services track record appears generally in line with that of the OECD, IMF and Consensus Economics, and in some cases better. Finally, while the analysis points to a limited impact of the crisis on the accuracy of the Commission's current-year forecasts, a significant deterioration of the accuracy of year-ahead projections is found. This applies in particular for the forecasts of GDP, investment, inflation and the government budget balance, due mainly to larger forecast errors in the recession year 2009, which by all standards proved exceptional and unanticipated by institutional and market forecasters."--Document home page.

External Assumptions, the International Environment and the Track Record of the Commission Forecasts

External Assumptions, the International Environment and the Track Record of the Commission Forecasts
Author: Filip Keereman
Publisher:
Total Pages: 92
Release: 2003
Genre: Economic forecasting
ISBN:

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While in the Commission Forecasts interest rates, exchange rates or oil prices are treated more like assumptions, it is interesting to test their realism. It appears that these variables are formulated in a reasonably accurate way and that in general alternative assumptions would not improve the picture.

European Commission's Forecasts Accuracy Revisited

European Commission's Forecasts Accuracy Revisited
Author: Marco Fioramanti
Publisher:
Total Pages: 82
Release: 2016
Genre:
ISBN: 9789279544262

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This paper updates a previous assessment of the European Commission's track record for forecasting key economic variables (González Cabanillas and Terzi 2012) by extending the observation period to 2014. It also examines the accuracy of the Commission's forecasts over a shorter and more recent period (2000-2014) so that a comparison can be made between the performance of forecasts made before and after the Great Recession of 2008-2009. Going beyond the 2012 approach, this paper also examines the extent to which forecast errors can be explained by external or technical assumptions that prove incorrect ex post. It also updates the comparison of the Commission's performance vis à vis the OECD, the IMF, a consensus forecast of market economists, and the ECB. Inclusion of the 2012-2014 period lowers the forecasting error for some key variables or leads to no change in others.^Focussing on the years since the turn of the century, current-year and year-ahead forecasting errors for the three main variables examined (GDP growth, inflation and general government balances) have been larger in the crisis and post-crisis period (2008-2014) than in the precrisis period (2000-2007) for a large majority of Member States. This appears mainly to be the result of an anomalously large error in 2009, a year which confounded many forecasters. The country-by-country analysis confirms the finding of earlier studies which show that the Commission's forecasts are largely unbiased. The newly-introduced panel data approach also confirms the absence of bias in current-year GDP forecasts across EU Member States but shows that year-ahead forecasts for GDP growth tend to be slightly over optimistic across the whole sample. The analysis also shows that autocorrelation of forecast errors is not a major issue in the Commission's forecasts.^Other advanced tests shed more light on the performance of the Commission's forecasts, demonstrating that they are directionally accurate and generally beat a naïve forecast but that they are not always efficient in terms of their use of all available data. The decomposition of forecast errors shows that unexpected changes in external assumptions seem to have only a limited impact on current-year GDP growth forecasts. However, more than half of the variance in year-ahead forecast errors appears to come from external assumptions that prove to be incorrect ex post. Finally, the Commission's economic forecasts come out as being more accurate than those of the market and comparable to those of the other international institutions considered.

Portugal

Portugal
Author: International Monetary Fund
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 123
Release: 2011-06-07
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1455276510

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Portugal's economy faced severe crisis during the global economic and financial crisis. In this context, Portugal's authorities have put forward an economically well-balanced program that will focus on structural reforms to boost growth and employment, ensure balanced fiscal sustainability, safeguard financial stability, and prevent a credit crunch. The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund welcomed this step, and approved a three-year arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility for Portugal.