The Excess Co-movement of Commodity Prices

The Excess Co-movement of Commodity Prices
Author: Robert S. Pindyck
Publisher:
Total Pages: 50
Release: 1988
Genre: Prices
ISBN:

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This paper tests and confirms the existence of a puzzling phenomenon - the prices of largely unrelated raw commodities have a persistent tendency to move together. We show that this comovement of prices is well in excess of anything that can be explained by the common effects of past, current, or expected future values of macroeconomic variables such as inflation, industrial production, interest rates, and exchange rates. These results are a rejection of the standard competitive model of commodity price formation with storage.

Co-movement of major commodity price returns: A time-series assessment

Co-movement of major commodity price returns: A time-series assessment
Author: de Nicola, Francesca
Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Total Pages: 44
Release: 2014-06-13
Genre: Social Science
ISBN:

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This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of the degree of co-movement among the nominal price returns of 11 major energy, agricultural, and food commodities using monthly data between 1970 and 2013. The authors study the extent and the time evolution of unconditional and conditional correlations using a uniform-spacings testing approach, a multivariate dynamic conditional correlation model and a rolling regression procedure.

Futures Trading and the Excess Comovement of Commodity Prices

Futures Trading and the Excess Comovement of Commodity Prices
Author: Yannick Le Pen
Publisher:
Total Pages: 41
Release: 2017
Genre:
ISBN:

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We empirically reinvestigate the issue of the excess co-movement of commodity prices initially raised in Pindyck and Rotemberg (1990). Excess co-movement appears when commodity prices remain correlated even after adjusting for the impact of fundamentals. We use recent developments in large approximate factor models to consider a richer information set and adequately model these fundamentals. We consider a set of eight unrelated commodities along with 184 real and nominal macroeconomic variables, from developed and emerging economies, from which nine factors are extracted over the 1993-2013 period. Our estimates provide evidence of time-varying excess co-movement which is only occasionally significant. We further show that speculative intensity is a driver of the estimated excess co-movement, as speculative trading is both correlated across the commodity futures markets and correlated with the futures prices. Our results can be taken as direct evidence of the significant impact of financialization on commodity-price cross-moments.

The Myth of Comoving Commodity Prices

The Myth of Comoving Commodity Prices
Author: Mr.Paul Cashin
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 21
Release: 1999-12-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1451858329

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There is a common perception that the prices of unrelated commodities move together. This paper re-examines this notion, using a measure of comovement of economic time series called concordance. Concordance measures the proportion of time that the prices of two commodities are concurrently in the same boom period or same slump period. Using data on the prices of several unrelated commodities, the paper finds no evidence of comovement in commodity prices. The results carry an important policy implication, as the study provides no support for earlier claims of irrational trading behavior by participants in world commodity markets.

The Comovement in Commodity Prices

The Comovement in Commodity Prices
Author: Mr.Ron Alquist
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 63
Release: 2013-06-05
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1484378148

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We present a simple macroeconomic model with a continuum of primary commodities used in the production of the final good, such that the real prices of commodities have a factor structure. One factor captures the combined contribution of all aggregate shocks which have no direct effects on commodity markets other than through general equilibrium effects on output, while other factors represent direct commodity shocks. Thus, the factor structure provides a decomposition of underlying structural shocks. The theory also provides guidance on how empirical factors can be rotated to identify the structural factors. We apply factor analysis and the identification conditions implied by the model to a cross-section of real non-energy commodity prices. The theoretical restrictions implied by the model are consistent with the data and thus yield a structural interpretation of the common factors in commodity prices. The analysis suggests that commodity-related shocks have generally played a limited role in global business cycle fluctuations.

Increasing Trends in the Excess Comovement of Commodity Prices

Increasing Trends in the Excess Comovement of Commodity Prices
Author: Kazuhiko Ohashi
Publisher:
Total Pages: 30
Release: 2014
Genre:
ISBN:

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In this paper, we investigate whether and how excess comovement among commodity returns i.e., correlation among commodity returns not accounted for by the common shocks of exogenous macroeconomic variables, have increased during these decades. To this end, we generalize the model of excess comovement, originated by Pindyck and Rotemberg (1990) and extended by Deb, Trivedi, and Varangis (1996), to develop the STDCC (smooth-transition dynamic conditional correlation) model that can capture long-run trends and short-run dynamics in excess comovement. Using monthly commodity returns data from 1983 to 2011, we find significant increasing long-run trends in excess comovement have appeared since around 2000 in all pairs of agricultural raw materials, beverages, metals, and oils. We then examine the possibility of non-monotonic trends, and find that in most cases, excess comovement continue to increase even after the financial crisis in 2008 and hence the increasing trends in excess comovement among commodity returns are not an artifact produced by the recent financial crisis, but the intrinsic nature of the excess comovement during the period including the post-crisis era. We also confirm that the increasing long-run trends of excess comovement are robust to the change in the sensitivities of commodity returns to common macroeconomic factors. Moreover, unlike the results above, we find no significant increasing trends in excess comovements among off-index commodity returns. Finally, we find that our results are robust for global macroeconomic shocks. That is, taking account of global macroeconomic variables, we still find significant, though a bit weaker, long-run increasing trends in commodity excess comovement. Those findings provide additional evidence for the recent debates about the increasing commodity-return correlations.