Foreign Exchange Intervention Rules for Central Banks: A Risk-based Framework

Foreign Exchange Intervention Rules for Central Banks: A Risk-based Framework
Author: Romain Lafarguette
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 33
Release: 2021-02-12
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1513569406

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This paper presents a rule for foreign exchange interventions (FXI), designed to preserve financial stability in floating exchange rate arrangements. The FXI rule addresses a market failure: the absence of hedging solution for tail exchange rate risk in the market (i.e. high volatility). Market impairment or overshoot of exchange rate between two equilibria could generate high volatility and threaten financial stability due to unhedged exposure to exchange rate risk in the economy. The rule uses the concept of Value at Risk (VaR) to define FXI triggers. While it provides to the market a hedge against tail risk, the rule allows the exchange rate to smoothly adjust to new equilibria. In addition, the rule is budget neutral over the medium term, encourages a prudent risk management in the market, and is more resilient to speculative attacks than other rules, such as fixed-volatility rules. The empirical methodology is backtested on Banco Mexico’s FXIs data between 2008 and 2016.

The Effectiveness of Central Bank Interventions in the Foreign Exchange Market

The Effectiveness of Central Bank Interventions in the Foreign Exchange Market
Author: Dave Arnold Seerattan
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 2012
Genre:
ISBN:

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The global foreign exchange market is the largest financial market with turnover in this market often outstripping the GDP of countries in which they are located. The dynamics in the foreign exchange market, especially price dynamics, have huge implications for financial asset values, financial returns and volatility in the international financial system. It is therefore an important area of study. Exchange rates have often departed significantly from the level implied by fundamentals and exhibit excessive volatility. This reality creates a role for central bank intervention in this market to keep the rate in line with economic fundamentals and the overall policy mix, to stabilize market expectations and to calm disorderly markets. Studies that attempt to measure the effectiveness of intervention in the foreign exchange market in terms of exchange rate trends and volatility have had mixed results. This, in many cases, reflects the unavailability of data and the weaknesses in the empirical frameworks used to measure effectiveness. This thesis utilises the most recent data available and some of the latest methodological advances to measure the effectiveness of central bank intervention in the foreign exchange markets of a variety of countries. It therefore makes a contribution in the area of applied empirical methodologies for the measurement of the dynamics of intervention in the foreign exchange market. It demonstrates that by using high frequency data and more robust and appropriate empirical methodologies central bank intervention in the foreign exchange market can be effective. Moreover, a framework that takes account of the interactions between different central bank policy instruments and price dynamics, the reaction function of the central bank, different states of the market, liquidity in the market and the profitability of the central bank can improve the effectiveness of measuring the impact of central bank policy in the foreign exchange market and provide useful information to policy makers.

The Cost of Foreign Exchange Intervention

The Cost of Foreign Exchange Intervention
Author: Gustavo Adler
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 37
Release: 2016-04-12
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 148433230X

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The accumulation of large foreign asset positions by many central banks through sustained foreign exchange (FX) intervention has raised questions about its associated fiscal costs. This paper clarifies conceptual issues regarding how to measure these costs both from an ex-post and an ex-ante (relevant for decision making) perspective, and estimates both marginal and total costs for 73 countries over the period 2002-13. We find ex-ante marginal costs for the median emerging market economy (EME) in the inter-quartile range of 2-5.5 percent per year; while ex-ante total costs (of sustaining FX positions) in the range of 0.2-0.7 percent of GDP per year for light interveners and 0.3-1.2 percent of GDP per year for heavy interveners. These estimates indicate that fiscal costs of sustained FX intervention (via expanding central bank balance sheets) are not negligible.

Official Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market

Official Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market
Author: Roberto Pereira Guimarães
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 45
Release: 2003-07-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 145185711X

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This paper offers guidance on the operational aspects of official intervention in the foreign exchange market, particularly in developing countries with flexible exchange rate regimes. A brief survey of the literature and country experience is followed by an analysis of the objectives, timing, amount, degree of transparency, and choice of markets and counterparties in conducting intervention. The analysis highlights the difficulty of detecting exchange rate misalignments and disorderly markets, and argues in favor of parsimony in official intervention. Determining the timing and amount of intervention is a highly subjective excercise, and some degree of discretion is almost necessary, though policy rules may serve as "rules of thumb."

Foreign Exchange Intervention as a Monetary Policy Instrument

Foreign Exchange Intervention as a Monetary Policy Instrument
Author: Felix Hüfner
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 180
Release: 2012-12-06
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 3790826723

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Foreign exchange intervention is frequently being used by central banks in countries which have a floating exchange rate. Most theoretical monetary policy models, however, do not take this phenomenon into account. This book contributes to close this gap between theory and practice by interpreting foreign exchange intervention as an additional monetary policy instrument for inflation targeting central banks. In-depth empirical analyses of the foreign exchange operations and interest rate policy of five inflation targeting countries (Australia, Canada, New Zealand, Sweden and the United Kingdom) demonstrate how foreign exchange intervention is used in practice.

Official Foreign Exchange Intervention

Official Foreign Exchange Intervention
Author: Mr.Jorge Iván Canales Kriljenko
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 58
Release: 2006-03-02
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9781589064218

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Despite increasing exchange rate flexibility, central banks in emerging markets still intervene in their foreign exchange markets for several reasons. In doing so, they face many operational questions, including on the degree of transparency and the choice of markets and counterparties. This paper identifies elements of best practice in official foreign exchange intervention, presents survey evidence on intervention practices in developing countries, and assesses the effectiveness of intervention in Mexico and Turkey.

The Effectiveness of Central Bank Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Markets in Selected Flexible Exchange Rate Regime Countries in the Caribbean

The Effectiveness of Central Bank Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Markets in Selected Flexible Exchange Rate Regime Countries in the Caribbean
Author: Dave Seerattan
Publisher:
Total Pages: 22
Release: 2004
Genre: Caribbean Area
ISBN:

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This paper analyses the effectiveness of central bank intervention in the foreign exchange markets of floating exchange rate regime countries in the region in terms of the level and volatility of the exchange rate. The paper reviews the literature on foreign exchange market intervention, outlines the structure of the foreign exchange markets in these jurisdictions and the modus operandi of intervention by central banks in these markets and estimates the impact of intervention on target variables. Policy recommendations for best practices on intervention in these foreign exchange markets are then suggested.

Exchange Rate Management in Interdependent Economies

Exchange Rate Management in Interdependent Economies
Author: Silke Fabian
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 175
Release: 2012-12-06
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 3642500293

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With the breakdown of the Bretton Woods System and the begin of floating between the major currencies, central banks have been formally freed from their obligations to defend the fixed parities of bilateral exchange rates. Nev ertheless, since then there have been countless occasions on which monetary authorities have officially intervened in the foreign exchange market. More over, numerous studies indicate that exchange rates have been much more variable than originally anticipated - in real and in nominal, as well as in short run and longer run measures (see for example Hesse and Braasch [1989] and Marston [1988]). Through the experience of high real sector costs, the topic of optimal exchange rate management soon reentered policy discussions. The term exchange rate management encompasses both the choice of ex change rate regime as well as active intervention policies within the given 1 system. Much of the recent policy discussion has focussed on the first issue, in particular proposals of how to reform the present international monetary order. And new systems such as the European Monetary System (EMS) have emerged for subgroups of countries. However, the question of finding the optimal system has not yet been resolved.

Noise Trading, Central Bank Interventions, and the Informational Content of Foreign Currency Options

Noise Trading, Central Bank Interventions, and the Informational Content of Foreign Currency Options
Author: Christian Pierdzioch
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 232
Release: 2001-12-06
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9783540427452

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A flexible instrument to insure against adverse exchange rate movements are options on foreign currency. Often a relatively simple foreign currency option valuation model is used to address issues related to the pricing and hedging of such options. The results of many empirical studies document that real-world foreign currency option premia deviate from those predicted by the baseline model. In the first part of the book, it is shown that a noise trader model can help to explain the observed mispricing of the baseline foreign currency option pricing model. In the second part of the book, it is studied how policymakers can exploit the pricing errors of the baseline model. In particular, it is examined how option pricing theory can be applied to assess the effectiveness of central bank interventions in the foreign exchange market. To this end, a model is constructed to analyze the effectiveness of the interventions conducted by the Deutsche Bundesbank during the Louvre period.