Developments in Macro-Finance Yield Curve Modelling

Developments in Macro-Finance Yield Curve Modelling
Author: Jagjit S. Chadha
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Total Pages: 571
Release: 2014-02-06
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1107662559

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Changes in the shape of the yield curve have traditionally been one of the key macroeconomic indicators of a likely change in economic outlook. However, the recent financial crises have created a challenge to the management of monetary policy, demanding a revision in the way that policymakers model expected changes in the economy. This volume brings together central bank economists and leading academic monetary economists to propose new methods for modelling the behaviour of interest rates. Topics covered include: the analysis and extraction of expectations of future monetary policy and inflation; the analysis of the short-term dynamics of money market interest rates; the reliability of existing models in periods of extreme market volatility and how to adjust them accordingly; and the role of government debt and deficits in affecting sovereign bond yields and spreads. This book will interest financial researchers and practitioners as well as academic and central bank economists.

The Macroeconomy and the Yield Curve

The Macroeconomy and the Yield Curve
Author: Francis X. Diebold
Publisher:
Total Pages: 22
Release: 2004
Genre: Interest rate futures
ISBN:

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We estimate a model that summarizes the yield curve using latent factors (specifically, level, slope, and curvature) and also includes observable macroeconomic variables (specifically, real activity, inflation, and the monetary policy instrument). Our goal is to provide a characterization of the dynamic interactions between the macroeconomy and the yield curve. We find strong evidence of the effects of macro variables on future movements in the yield curve and evidence for a reverse influence as well. We also relate our results to the expectations hypothesis.

Yield Curve Dynamics and Spillovers in Central and Eastern European Countries

Yield Curve Dynamics and Spillovers in Central and Eastern European Countries
Author: Ms.Anita Tuladhar
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 61
Release: 2010-02-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1451963327

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This paper applies the models used to study yield curve dynamics and spillovers in the U.S. and other countries to Central and Eastern European countries (CEE countries). Using the Diebold, Rudebusch, and Aruoba (2006) dynamic version of the Nelson-Siegel representation of the yield curve, the paper finds that the two-way relationship between macroeconomic and financial variables in the CEE countries is similar to the one in mature economies. However, inflation shocks have very little persistence in the CEE countries, owing to the strong convergence trends in these countries-which tend to re-anchor expectations faster. Increased convergence in policies and market integration over time are associated with a stronger correlation between the levels of the yield curves, while the curves slopes are more driven by idiosyncratic factors. Shifts in the euro yield curve are transmitted both to interest rates and inflation expectations in the CEE countries-and transmission is stronger after 2004.

The Yield Curve and Financial Risk Premia

The Yield Curve and Financial Risk Premia
Author: Felix Geiger
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 320
Release: 2011-08-17
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 3642215750

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The determinants of yield curve dynamics have been thoroughly discussed in finance models. However, little can be said about the macroeconomic factors behind the movements of short- and long-term interest rates as well as the risk compensation demanded by financial investors. By taking on a macro-finance perspective, the book’s approach explicitly acknowledges the close feedback between monetary policy, the macroeconomy and financial conditions. Both theoretical and empirical models are applied in order to get a profound understanding of the interlinkages between economic activity, the conduct of monetary policy and the underlying macroeconomic factors of bond price movements. Moreover, the book identifies a broad risk-taking channel of monetary transmission which allows a reassessment of the role of financial constraints; it enables policy makers to develop new guidelines for monetary policy and for financial supervision of how to cope with evolving financial imbalances.

The Impact of Macroeconomic Factors on the Yield Curve in Emerging Markets

The Impact of Macroeconomic Factors on the Yield Curve in Emerging Markets
Author: Joe Delvaux
Publisher:
Total Pages: 55
Release: 2018
Genre:
ISBN:

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We investigate the impact of local and global macroeconomic factors on Eurobonds and local currency issued bonds in Sub-Saharan Africa, at different points on the yield curve. Using a unique proprietary data set collected from local authorities, central banks and independent international sources over the period 2001-2016, we find the local monetary policy interest rate and the balance of trade to impact both local currency bond yields and Eurobonds; global risk aversion, as proxied by the VIX index, to impact only the Eurobonds and much more the commodity importing countries; and the explanatory power of most models to be high.

Global Factors in the Term Structure of Interest Rates

Global Factors in the Term Structure of Interest Rates
Author: Mirko Abbritti
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 41
Release: 2013-11-05
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1475513313

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This paper introduces global factors within a FAVAR framework in an empirical affine term structure model. We apply our method to a panel of international yield curves and show that global factors account for more than 80 percent of term premia in advanced economies. In particular they tend to explain long-term dynamics in yield curves, as opposed to domestic factors which are instead more relevant to short-run movements. We uncover the key role for global curvature in shaping term premia dynamics. We show that this novel factor precedes global economic and financial instability. In particular, it coincides with immediate expectations of permanent expansionary monetary policy during the recent crisis.

Monetary and Fiscal Policies and the Dynamics of the Yield Curve in Morocco

Monetary and Fiscal Policies and the Dynamics of the Yield Curve in Morocco
Author: Mr.Calixte Ahokpossi
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 31
Release: 2016-08-16
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1475526296

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We estimate the latent factors that underlie the dynamics of the sovereign bond yield curve in Morocco during 2004–14 based on the Dynamic Nelson-Siegel model. On this basis, we explore the interaction between macroeconomic variables and the yield curve, which is of direct relevance to macroeconomic policy-making. In Morocco’s context, we find that tighter monetary policy increases short-end maturities, and that the impact is small and short-lived. Economic activity is also briefly but significantly impacted, suggesting that even under a pegged exchange rate, monetary policy autonomy and effectiveness can be increased through greater central bank independence. Fiscal improvements significantly lower yield levels. Policy conclusions are that improvement in the fiscal and monetary policy frameworks, as well as greater financial sector development and inclusion, could benefit Morocco and strengthen the transmission mechanisms and effectiveness of macroeconomic policies.