The Determinants of China's International Portfolio Equity Allocations

The Determinants of China's International Portfolio Equity Allocations
Author: Isha Agarwal
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 2020
Genre:
ISBN:

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We analyze shifts in the structure of China's capital outflows over the past decade. The composition of gross outflows has shifted from accumulation of foreign exchange reserves by the central bank to nonofficial outflows. Unlocking the enormous pool of domestic savings could have a significant impact on global financial markets as China continues to open up its capital account and as domestic investors look abroad for returns and diversification. We analyze in detail the allocation patterns of Chinese institutional investors (IIs), which constitute the main channel for foreign portfolio investment outflows. We find that, relative to benchmarks based on market capitalization, Chinese IIs underweight developed countries and high-tech sectors in their international portfolio allocations but overinvest in high-tech stocks in developed countries. To further examine Chinese IIs' joint decisions on destination country-sector pairs, we construct continuous measures of revealed relative comparative advantage and disadvantage in a sector for a country based on trade patterns. We find that, in their foreign portfolio allocations, Chinese IIs overweight sectors in which China has a comparative disadvantage. Moreover, Chinese IIs concentrate such investments in countries that have higher relative comparative advantage in those sectors. Diversification and information advantages related to foreign imports to China seem to influence patterns of foreign portfolio allocations, while yield-seeking and learning motives do not.

China's Impact on Global Financial Markets

China's Impact on Global Financial Markets
Author: Isha Agarwal
Publisher:
Total Pages: 79
Release: 2019
Genre: Capital movements
ISBN:

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We analyze shifts in the structure of China's capital outflows over the past decade. The composition of gross outflows has shifted from accumulation of foreign exchange reserves by the central bank to nonofficial outflows. Unlocking the enormous pool of domestic savings could have a significant impact on global financial markets as China continues to open up its capital account and as domestic investors look abroad for returns and diversification. We analyze in detail the allocation patterns of Chinese institutional investors (IIs), which constitute the main channel for foreign portfolio investment outflows. We find that, relative to benchmarks based on market capitalization, Chinese IIs underweight developed countries and high-tech sectors in their international portfolio allocations but overinvest in high-tech stocks in developed countries. To further examine Chinese IIs' joint decisions on destination country-sector pairs, we construct continuous measures of revealed relative comparative advantage and disadvantage in a sector for a country based on trade patterns. We find that, in their foreign portfolio allocations, Chinese IIs overweight sectors in which China has a comparative disadvantage. Moreover, Chinese IIs concentrate such investments in countries that have higher relative comparative advantage in those sectors. Diversification and information advantages related to foreign imports to China seem to influence patterns of foreign portfolio allocations, while yield-seeking and learning motives do not.

Corporations, Foreign Portfolio Investment and the Role of Securities Market Regulation

Corporations, Foreign Portfolio Investment and the Role of Securities Market Regulation
Author: Parul Sharma
Publisher:
Total Pages: 338
Release: 2015
Genre:
ISBN:

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My dissertation examines the effect of capital market regulations on the choices of firms and institutional investors in international financial markets. Chapter 1 asks whether opening China's capital market through the Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor (QFII) Scheme has resulted in a significant reallocation of foreign demand away from globally traded Chinese equities towards domestically traded equities. Using a unique dataset of 5,273 securities, I study differences in shareholdings across investors with and without direct access to China's capital market. I find that direct access is associated with a significant increase in A-sharebased exposure to China. Further, this entire increase represents incremental foreign demand rather than a reallocation of existing demand away from non-A-share equities towards A-shares. Domestically and internationally traded equities are mutually nonsubstitutable and China's capital markets remain segmented from global capital markets. Chapter 2 examines the firm-level determinants of QFII portfolio allocations and the effect of foreign ownership in Chinese listed firms on stock return volatility and stock return synchronicity. Using foreign institutional ownership and financial data for Chinese listed firms for 2003-2012 I find strong evidence that QFII portfolios overweight large firms, firms with low book-to-market ratios, high profitability ratios and high strategic investment by domestic long-term investors while underweighting firms with strategic ownership by controlling shareholders. Foreign ownership is not associated with any significant change in return volatility and is associated with a significant decrease in stock return synchronicity. Chapter 3 empirically examines the extent to which two alternative hypotheses - lossof- competitiveness and voluntary un-bonding - explain foreign deregistrations from U.S. equity markets by testing their predictions regarding the effect of deregistration on a firm's capital raising ability and operating performance. Using a dataset of 141 voluntary deregistrations from U.S. capital markets during 2002-2008 I find that deregistering firms are significantly more profitable and raise significantly lower capital relative to benchmark peers that did not deregister. Higher profitability in the aftermath of deregistration suggests that firms deregister to save the monetary costs of listing while lower capital raising in the aftermath of deregistration suggests that deregistration is perceived as a signal of lower protections for minority investors.

Gaining Currency

Gaining Currency
Author: Eswar Prasad
Publisher: Oxford University Press
Total Pages: 345
Release: 2017
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0190631058

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China's currency, the renminbi, has taken the world by storm. This book documents the renminbi's impressive rise to global prominence in a short period but also shows how much further it has to go before becoming a major international currency. The hype about its inevitable ascendance to global dominance is overblown.

The Chinese Approach to Capital Inflows

The Chinese Approach to Capital Inflows
Author: Mr.Eswar Prasad
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 63
Release: 2005-04-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1451860986

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In this paper, we adopt a cross-country perspective to examine the evolution of capital flows into China, both in terms of volumes and composition. China's inflows have generally been dominated by foreign direct investment (FDI), a pattern that appears to be favorable in light of the recent literature on the experiences of developing countries with financial globalization. We provide a detailed documentation of the evolution of China's capital controls, a proximate determinant of the pattern of capital inflows. We also discuss a number of other intriguing hypotheses that attempt to capture the "deeper" causes underlying China's approach to capital flows. In particular, we argue that some popular mercantilist-type arguments are inconsistent with the facts. We also analyze the recent rapid rise of China's international reserves and discuss its implications. Contrary to some popular perceptions, the dramatic surge in foreign exchange reserves since 2001 is mainly attributable to non-FDI capital inflows, rather than current account surpluses or FDI.

Strategic Asset Allocation

Strategic Asset Allocation
Author: John Y. Campbell
Publisher: OUP Oxford
Total Pages: 272
Release: 2002-01-03
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 019160691X

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Academic finance has had a remarkable impact on many financial services. Yet long-term investors have received curiously little guidance from academic financial economists. Mean-variance analysis, developed almost fifty years ago, has provided a basic paradigm for portfolio choice. This approach usefully emphasizes the ability of diversification to reduce risk, but it ignores several critically important factors. Most notably, the analysis is static; it assumes that investors care only about risks to wealth one period ahead. However, many investors—-both individuals and institutions such as charitable foundations or universities—-seek to finance a stream of consumption over a long lifetime. In addition, mean-variance analysis treats financial wealth in isolation from income. Long-term investors typically receive a stream of income and use it, along with financial wealth, to support their consumption. At the theoretical level, it is well understood that the solution to a long-term portfolio choice problem can be very different from the solution to a short-term problem. Long-term investors care about intertemporal shocks to investment opportunities and labor income as well as shocks to wealth itself, and they may use financial assets to hedge their intertemporal risks. This should be important in practice because there is a great deal of empirical evidence that investment opportunities—-both interest rates and risk premia on bonds and stocks—-vary through time. Yet this insight has had little influence on investment practice because it is hard to solve for optimal portfolios in intertemporal models. This book seeks to develop the intertemporal approach into an empirical paradigm that can compete with the standard mean-variance analysis. The book shows that long-term inflation-indexed bonds are the riskless asset for long-term investors, it explains the conditions under which stocks are safer assets for long-term than for short-term investors, and it shows how labor income influences portfolio choice. These results shed new light on the rules of thumb used by financial planners. The book explains recent advances in both analytical and numerical methods, and shows how they can be used to understand the portfolio choice problems of long-term investors.

Chinese Investment in Latin America: Sectoral Complementarity and the Impact of China’s Rebalancing

Chinese Investment in Latin America: Sectoral Complementarity and the Impact of China’s Rebalancing
Author: Ding Ding
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 32
Release: 2021-06-07
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1513573349

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Over the last decade China’s investment in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) has increased substantially in volume and become more diversified from natural resources to other industries. Using cross-border mergers and acquisitions data, we demonstrate that since mid-2010s China’s overseas investment has tilted toward sectors where China has a comparative advantage in the global markets, a trend similar to that of other major foreign direct investment (FDI) source countries. Moreover, China’s rising overseas investment can be linked to the rebalancing of Chinese economy, and LAC stands to benefit from its complementarity vis-à-vis China in sectors where the rising Chinese overseas investment can be met with LAC’s own investment gaps. The COVID-19 pandemic could have a long-lasting impact on global value chains and FDI flows, which poses both challenges and opportunities to LAC in attracting FDI, including from China, to support the region’s long-run economic development.

International Capital Flows

International Capital Flows
Author: Martin Feldstein
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
Total Pages: 500
Release: 2007-12-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0226241807

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Recent changes in technology, along with the opening up of many regions previously closed to investment, have led to explosive growth in the international movement of capital. Flows from foreign direct investment and debt and equity financing can bring countries substantial gains by augmenting local savings and by improving technology and incentives. Investing companies acquire market access, lower cost inputs, and opportunities for profitable introductions of production methods in the countries where they invest. But, as was underscored recently by the economic and financial crises in several Asian countries, capital flows can also bring risks. Although there is no simple explanation of the currency crisis in Asia, it is clear that fixed exchange rates and chronic deficits increased the likelihood of a breakdown. Similarly, during the 1970s, the United States and other industrial countries loaned OPEC surpluses to borrowers in Latin America. But when the U.S. Federal Reserve raised interest rates to control soaring inflation, the result was a widespread debt moratorium in Latin America as many countries throughout the region struggled to pay the high interest on their foreign loans. International Capital Flows contains recent work by eminent scholars and practitioners on the experience of capital flows to Latin America, Asia, and eastern Europe. These papers discuss the role of banks, equity markets, and foreign direct investment in international capital flows, and the risks that investors and others face with these transactions. By focusing on capital flows' productivity and determinants, and the policy issues they raise, this collection is a valuable resource for economists, policymakers, and financial market participants.