The cost of COVID-19 on the Indonesian economy: A Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) multiplier approach

The cost of COVID-19 on the Indonesian economy: A Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) multiplier approach
Author: Pradesha, Angga
Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Total Pages: 11
Release: 2020-07-30
Genre: Political Science
ISBN:

Download The cost of COVID-19 on the Indonesian economy: A Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) multiplier approach Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle

Sustained economic growth and a declining trend in poverty over the years in Indonesia potentially will come to a halt this year. This development cost comes as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic outbreak that recently hit the country. Like in many other countries, one of the largest costs of COVID-19 comes from the social distancing policy, which is a proven public health measure to reduce the spread of the virus by limiting people’s movements and interactions for a certain period of time. The government of Indonesia adopted this approach by gradually introducing in certain regions the Large-scale Social Restriction (PSBB) policy from early April 2020. PSBB restricts non-essential economic activities and people’s movement in order to contain the virus. IFPRI, the National Development Planning Agency of Indonesia (BAPPENAS), and IPB University used a SAM multiplier model to measure the economic impact of PSBB if restrictions were to be in place for four weeks and to explore potential recovery processes after the policy ends. Some of the key findings were: • National GDP is estimated to fall by 24 percent during the four-week PSBB period, • External sector shocks – reduced export demand, lower remittances, and lower foreign investments – contribute around one-third of total GDP losses; • The GDP of Indonesia’s agri-food system falls by 13 percent despite agriculture activities being excluded from restrictive measures; • National poverty is expected to jump by 13 percentage points – an additional 36 million people will fall into poverty during the four-week PSBB period; and • By the end of 2020, due to COVID-19 the annual GDP growth is expected to be between 5.3 and 7.3 percent lower than under a baseline scenario without COVID-19.

The short-run economic costs of COVID-19 in developing countries in 2020: A synthesis of results from a multi-country modeling exercise

The short-run economic costs of COVID-19 in developing countries in 2020: A synthesis of results from a multi-country modeling exercise
Author: Pauw, Karl
Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Total Pages: 29
Release: 2021-06-04
Genre: Political Science
ISBN:

Download The short-run economic costs of COVID-19 in developing countries in 2020: A synthesis of results from a multi-country modeling exercise Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle

As COVID-19 spread across the globe in early 2020, governments had to make difficult policy choices to balance the socioeconomic costs of social distancing and lockdown measures, on the one hand, and the human costs of increased morbidity and mortality of an unchecked pandemic, on the other. The challenge was particularly daunting for developing countries with their often illequipped and underfunded health systems coupled with general skepticism about the effectiveness of economic restrictions to curb viral spread, especially in densely populated informal urban communities (The Economist 2020). Poorer developing country populations also tend to be less resilient to income shocks, while the social protection measures needed to mitigate against income losses are costly. With developing country governments already heavily indebted before the pandemic (Onyekwena and Ekeruche 2019), and with further anticipated losses in tax revenues due to COVID-related economic restrictions, their ability to finance palliative measures without sacrificing much-needed, longer-term public investments has remained a major concern.

Economic Dimensions of Covid-19 in Indonesia

Economic Dimensions of Covid-19 in Indonesia
Author: Blane D. Lewis
Publisher: ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute
Total Pages: 236
Release: 2021-04-19
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9814951463

Download Economic Dimensions of Covid-19 in Indonesia Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle

Beginning in December 2019, the coronavirus swept quickly through all regions of the world. COVID 19 has wreaked social, political and economic havoc everywhere and has shown few signs of entirely abating. The recent development and approval of new vaccines against the virus, however, now provides some hope that we may be coming to the beginning of the end of the pandemic. This volume collects papers from a conference titled Economic Dimensions of COVID 19 in Indonesia: Responding to the Crisis, organised by the Australian National University’s Indonesia Project and held online 7–10 September 2020. Collectively, the chapters in this volume focus for the most part on the economic elements of COVID 19 in Indonesia. The volume considers both macro- and micro-economic effects across a variety of dimensions, and short- and long-term impacts as well. It constitutes the first comprehensive analysis of Indonesia’s initial response to the crisis from an economic perspective.

COVID-19 in Indonesia

COVID-19 in Indonesia
Author: Lili Yan Ing
Publisher: Routledge
Total Pages: 270
Release: 2022-03-28
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1000583678

Download COVID-19 in Indonesia Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle

This book assesses the impacts of COVID-19 on the Indonesian economy, particularly on employment, education, poverty, trade, and macroeconomy. The chapters explain how fiscal and monetary stimulus work and the roles of local governments in managing stimulus. It also presents paths to recovery and lessons learned from countries that have found success in mitigating the economic impacts of the pandemic (China, Germany, Singapore, and Vietnam). This text will be a useful reference for policy makers, scholars, students, and public audience working or interested in the fields of development economics, trade, health economics, economics, and East Asia.

Coronaviruses: Transmission, Frontliners, Nanotechnology and Economy

Coronaviruses: Transmission, Frontliners, Nanotechnology and Economy
Author: Pasupuleti Visweswara Rao
Publisher: Universiti Malaysia Sabah Press
Total Pages: 150
Release: 2022-01-31
Genre: Health & Fitness
ISBN: 9672738188

Download Coronaviruses: Transmission, Frontliners, Nanotechnology and Economy Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle

With the huge experience more than a decade as an author, co-author and reviewer, the editors decided to share the knowledge on the current problem which is COVID-19. The information about corona virus and its impact on various aspects including society, economy and the quality of life is clearly given in this book. The virus has been spread across the globe and troubling the mankind. Till date, several countries have been damaged literally not only with the lives, but also with the loss of economy, mental ability, psychological issues etc. More variants of this virus have also been observed with more severity and damage to the humans. This pandemic affected the life of the people socially, economically, physically, and mentally. The human loss through this pandemic cannot be recovered. The awareness about the virus, its transmission and precautions, causative ways, different methods of drugs etc. needs to be provided to the layman and as whole to the community. This book mainly aims to answer all the above raised issues and worked out thoroughly. Thus, this book is a comprehensive information with basic knowledge about different aspects surrounding COVID-19. Layman, Young researchers, basic science graduates, medical and clinical sciences graduates, students, hospital workers, nurses, doctors, engineers, and every professional area of people can benefit from this book.

Poverty and food insecurity during COVID-19: Telephone survey evidence from mothers in rural and urban Myanmar

Poverty and food insecurity during COVID-19: Telephone survey evidence from mothers in rural and urban Myanmar
Author: Headey, Derek D.
Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Total Pages: 28
Release: 2020-10-07
Genre: Political Science
ISBN:

Download Poverty and food insecurity during COVID-19: Telephone survey evidence from mothers in rural and urban Myanmar Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle

Myanmar had one of the lowest confirmed COVID-19 caseloads in the world in mid-2020 and was one of the few developing countries not projected to go into economic recession. However, macroeconomic projections are likely to be a poor guide to individual and household welfare in a fast-moving crisis that has involved disruption to an unusually wide range of sectors and livelihoods. To explore the impacts of COVID-19 disruptions on household poverty and coping strategies, as well as maternal food insecurity experiences, this study used a telephone survey conducted in June and July 2020 covering 2,017 mothers of nutritionally vulnerable young children in urban Yangon and rural villages of Myanmar’s Dry Zone. Stratifying results by location, livelihoods, and asset-levels, and using retrospective questions on pre-COVID-19 incomes and various COVID-19 impacts, we find that the vast majority of households have been adversely affected from loss of income and employment. Over three-quarters cite income/job losses as the main impact of COVID-19 – median incomes declined by one third and $1.90/day income-based poverty rose by around 27 percentage points between January and June 2020. Falling into poverty was most strongly associated with loss of employment (including migrant employment), but also with recent childbirth. The poor commonly coped with income losses through taking loans/credit, while better-off households drew down on savings and reduced non-food expenditures. Self-reported food insecurity experiences were much more common in the urban sample than in the rural sample, even though income-based and asset-based poverty were more prevalent in rural areas. In urban areas, around one quarter of respondents were worried about food quantities and quality, and around 10 percent stated that there were times when they had run out of food or gone hungry. Respondents who stated that their household had lost income or experienced food supply problems due to COVID-19 were more likely to report a variety of different food insecurity experiences. These results raise the concern that the welfare impacts of the COVID-19 crisis are much more serious and widespread than macroeconomic projections would suggest. Loss of employment and casual labor are major drivers of increasing poverty. Consequently, economic recovery strategies must emphasize job creation to revitalize damaged livelihoods. However, a strengthened social protection strategy should also be a critical component of economic recovery to prevent adversely affected households from falling into poverty traps and to avert the worst forms of food insecurity and malnutrition, particularly among households with pregnant women and young children. The recent second wave of COVID-19 infections in Myanmar from mid-August onwards makes the expansion of social protection even more imperative.

Estimating the economic impacts of the first wave of COVID-19 in Pakistan using a SAM Multiplier Model

Estimating the economic impacts of the first wave of COVID-19 in Pakistan using a SAM Multiplier Model
Author: Moeen, Muhammad Saad
Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Total Pages: 42
Release: 2021-02-13
Genre: Political Science
ISBN:

Download Estimating the economic impacts of the first wave of COVID-19 in Pakistan using a SAM Multiplier Model Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle

Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) multiplier analysis has been employed to assess the impacts of COVID-19 on various macroeconomic variables including Gross Domestic Product (GDP), employment, and poverty in Pakistan. SAM multiplier models are well-suited to estimate the direct and indirect effects of unanticipated demand-side shocks and short-term fluctuations on various sectors and agents in the economy, such as those caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. The results show that Pakistan’s GDP declined by 26.4 percent from mid-March to the end of June 2020 (14 weeks) compared to a non-COVID scenario. Services were hit the hardest, registering losses of 17.6 percent, followed by industry with losses of 6.7 percent. Agriculture turned out to be resilient and remained relatively unhurt, falling by 2.1 percent. All households witnessed a reduction in incomes, but higher-income quartiles appeared to have lost more than lower-income ones. Our approach for economic impact with mitigation measures is to assess the effectiveness of Emergency Response Packages (ERP) by altering the remittances to levels that reflect the magnitude of the support from the government. The total government expenditures were directed towards different kinds of households of PKR 318.6 billion (USD 2.12 billion). This led to a reduction of about USD 3.1 billion in GDP losses, which, compared to the amount spent implied a multiplier of 1.4 in GDP per PKR spent. The national poverty rate soared to 43 percent and 38.7 percent in April and May respectively. The Government’s cash transfers program proved highly effective and led to 11 percent reduction in poverty rate during the pandemic. The recovery scenarios indicate a cumulative GDP loss of USD 11.8 billion and 11.1 USD billion under slow and fast recovery scenarios, respectively, by December 2020. Our estimates show that Pakistan’s annual GDP (at market prices) will register a decline of 4.6 percent in the year 2020 due to negative effects of the pandemic and sluggish economic recovery. Poverty is expected to stabilize at 27.6 percent and 27.4 percent for the two recovery scenarios by December 2020.