Inflation, Nominal Interest Rates, and the Variability of Output

Inflation, Nominal Interest Rates, and the Variability of Output
Author: Mr.Bankim Chadha
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 36
Release: 1996-10-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1451853165

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This paper examines the distribution of output around capacity when money demand is a nonlinear function of the nominal interest rate such that nominal interest rates cannot become negative. When fluctuations in output result primarily from disturbances to the money market, the variance of output is shown to be an increasing function of the trend inflation rate. When they result from disturbances to the goods market, the variance of output is a decreasing function of the trend inflation rate. When both disturbances are significant, there exists, in general, a critical non-zero trend inflation rate that minimizes the variance of output.

Money, Interest Rates, and Inflation

Money, Interest Rates, and Inflation
Author: Frederic S. Mishkin
Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing
Total Pages: 360
Release: 1993
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN:

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Frederick Mishkin's work has been dedicated to understanding the relationship between money, interest rates and inflation. The 15 essays in this collection - unabashedly empirical and rigorous - include much of Professor Mishkin's most highly regarded work. Money, Interst Rates and Inflation offers a coherent and informative assessment of how monetary policy affects the economy. In addition, the essays in this collection illustrate how rational expectations econometrics can be used to answer basic questions in the monetary-macroeconomics and finance areas.

Reducing Inflation

Reducing Inflation
Author: Christina D. Romer
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
Total Pages: 434
Release: 2007-12-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0226724832

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While there is ample evidence that high inflation is harmful, little is known about how best to reduce inflation or how far it should be reduced. In this volume, sixteen distinguished economists analyze the appropriateness of low inflation as a goal for monetary policy and discuss possible strategies for reducing inflation. Section I discusses the consequences of inflation. These papers analyze inflation's impact on the tax system, labor market flexibility, equilibrium unemployment, and the public's sense of well-being. Section II considers the obstacles facing central bankers in achieving low inflation. These papers study the precision of estimates of equilibrium unemployment, the sources of the high inflation of the 1970s, and the use of non-traditional indicators in policy formation. The papers in section III consider how institutions can be designed to promote successful monetary policy, and the importance of institutions to the performance of policy in the United States, Germany, and other countries. This timely volume should be read by anyone who studies or conducts monetary policy.

Inflation Expectations

Inflation Expectations
Author: Peter J. N. Sinclair
Publisher: Routledge
Total Pages: 402
Release: 2009-12-16
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1135179778

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Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.

The Non-adjustment of Nominal Interest Rates

The Non-adjustment of Nominal Interest Rates
Author: Lawrence H. Summers
Publisher:
Total Pages: 80
Release: 1982
Genre: Econometrics
ISBN:

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This paper critically re-examines theory and evidence on the relation- ship between interest rates and inflation. It concludes that there is no evidence that interest rates respond to inflation in the way that classical or Keynesian theories suggest, For the period 1860-1940, it does not appear that inflationary expectations had any significant impact on rates of inflation in the short or long run. During the post-war period interest rates do appear to be affected by inflation. However, the effect is much smaller than any theory which recognizes tax effects would predict. Further- more, all the power in the inflation interest rate relationship comes from the 1965-1971 period. Within the 1950's or 1970's, the relationship is both statistically and substantively insignificant. Various explanations for the failure of the theoretically predicted relationship to hold are considered. The relationship between inflation and interest rates remains weak at the even low frequencies. This is taken as evidence that cyclical factors or errors in measuring inflation expectations cannot account for the failure of the results to bear out Fisher's theoretical prediction. Rather, comparison of real interest rates and stock market yields suggests that Fisher was correct in pointing to money illusion as the cause of the imperfect adjustment of interest rates to expected inflation.

The Benefits of Low Inflation

The Benefits of Low Inflation
Author: Brian O'Reilly
Publisher:
Total Pages: 86
Release: 1998
Genre: Inflation (Finance)
ISBN: 9780662268390

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This paper surveys the empirical literature on the benefits of low inflation, emphasizing contributions since 1990. It follows a framework that examines the costs of inflation, or the benefits of price stability, in the context of four themes: inflation creates uncertainty about the future; there are costs of having to cope with inflation; inflation affects equity and fairness; and living with inflation is no answer. The section on each theme begins with a brief summary of points raised in the Bank of Canada's 1990 annual report, where that framework was presented. The empirical literature is reviewed extensively enough to establish a context. This is followed by discussion of those benefits of low inflation that have been quantified in the literature and those that have not; how the literature on the issue has advanced since 1990; and what areas might benefit from more research in the future.