The Challenge of Nuclear-Armed Regional Adversaries

The Challenge of Nuclear-Armed Regional Adversaries
Author: David Ochmanek
Publisher: Rand Corporation
Total Pages: 79
Release: 2008-03-26
Genre: Political Science
ISBN: 0833045911

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Deterrence of nuclear use through the threat of retaliation could be highly problematic in many plausible conflict scenarios with nuclear-armed regional adversaries. This could compel U.S. leaders to temper their military and political objectives if they come into conflict with these states. This book examines the reasons behind this important shift in the international security environment and its strategic and force planning implications.

Confronting Emergent Nuclear-armed Regional Adversaries

Confronting Emergent Nuclear-armed Regional Adversaries
Author: Forrest E. Morgan
Publisher: Rand Corporation
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2015
Genre: History
ISBN:

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Discusses the challenges associated with potential confrontations between the United States and hostile states with small nuclear arsenals.

Nuclear-Armed Regional Adversaries: How Deterrable are They Likely to Be?.

Nuclear-Armed Regional Adversaries: How Deterrable are They Likely to Be?.
Author:
Publisher:
Total Pages: 4
Release: 2008
Genre:
ISBN:

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The United States and other members of the international community are striving to convince North Korea, Iran, and other states to forgo the development of nuclear weapons. If they do not succeed, the consequences for U.S. and allied security could be profound. This research brief describes a RAND Project Air Force Study on nuclear-armed regional adversaries, which encompasses an examination of the historical record, evaluations of the strategies and statements of potential nuclear-armed regional adversaries, and politico-military gaming. This analysis suggests that future U.S. policy makers and commanders will need to develop and field capabilities that can prevent (rather than simply deter) the enemy's use of nuclear weapons.

Fighting a Nuclear-Armed Regional Opponent

Fighting a Nuclear-Armed Regional Opponent
Author: Department of Defense
Publisher:
Total Pages: 88
Release: 2017-11-10
Genre:
ISBN: 9781973270805

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In order to sustain the current international system organized around American-led alliances, the United States may need to be able to confront challenges posed by revisionist powers armed with nuclear weapons. Immature or transitional nuclear powers are likely to pose especially pressing problems for US strategy and military planning over the coming decades. In light of this probability, the United States should develop the capability both to confront and, at least in a limited sense, defeat such powers while also preventing or deterring them from employing nuclear weapons for decisive effect. Such a balancing act will require a sophisticated set of capabilities and equally sophisticated planning, posturing, and action. This study will examine several different possible responses, each with a correlative set of capability requirements. The first option is to maintain the status quo with its brittle binary responses to nuclear threats: inaction or nuclear retaliation. The second option would invest in capabilities that allow the US to defeat an adversary witling to use its nascent nuclear arsenal. The last option is an extensive program intended to permit the US to conduct operations across the military spectrum in the face of significant nuclear use by an opponent. The bottom line is quite simple: the United States should have military and technological options to deal with emerging nuclear powers. However, investing in meaningful response options would require the US political leadership to acknowledge that the current status quo strategy - with its focus on preparing for strictly conventional regional contingencies - is dangerously inadequate. This may be especially true in dealing with emerging nuclear states, such as the Islamic Republic of Iran, that have a strongly revisionist geo-strategic agenda. On the other hand, if the United States decides against making the investment to adapt to these emerging nuclear powers, it calls into question the central rationale for continuing a massive and sustained investment in high technology conventional capabilities since few will wish to fight the United States on its own terms. In a world of nuclear-armed adversaries, forces optimized to fight only conventionally-armed regional powers would seem to have little utility. The Range of Regional Nuclear Threats * Nascent or Tier One Capabilities: Limited Retaliatory Capability * Militarily Operational or Tier Two Capabilities: Multi-Salvo Capability * Mature Tier Three Capabilities: Assured Retaliatory Capability * The Shield/Sword Challenge * US National Military Response Options * The Status Quo, Option A * Moderate Adaptation Strategy, Option B * Aggressive Adaptation Strategy, Option C * Overview * I. THEMES FROM THE HISTORY OF NUCLEAR PROLIFERATION * II. THE STRATEGIC CHALLENGE OF EMERGING NUCLEAR POWERS * III. ALTERNATIVE NATIONAL SECURITY RESPONSES * Option A * Doctrine and Concepts of Operation * Option B * Doctrine and Concepts of Operation * Option C * Doctrine and Concepts of Operation * IV. Preparing for Nuclear Operations: Cold War Lessons Learned * V. RESPONDING TO A REGIONAL NUCLEAR CHALLENGE: THE STATUS QUO, OPTION A * Enhanced Counterforce Investments * All Weather Precision Guided Munitions * Persistent Attack Munitions * All Weather Precision and Persistent Surveillance and Targeting * Enhanced Active Defense Investments * The National Security Space (NSS) Architecture * On EMP and High Altitude Nuclear Detonation (HAND) * Enhanced R&D and Training * Enhanced Expeditionary Capability * An Overview * VI. "DEFEATING" A NUCLEAR-ARMED REGIONAL POWER: A MODERATE ADAPTATION STRATEGY, OPTION B * Requirements for Option B * The Dynamic Regional Nuclear Threat * Counter-Nuclear Campaign Requirements * Persistent Reconnaissance-Strike * A New Generation of Earth Penetration Warheads * Resurrecting Joint Counter-Nuclear Campaign Training * Active Defenses * More Robust C4ISR * Preparing for EMP and HAND Attacks

The End of Strategic Stability?

The End of Strategic Stability?
Author: Lawrence Rubin
Publisher: Georgetown University Press
Total Pages: 328
Release: 2018-09-03
Genre: Political Science
ISBN: 1626166048

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During the Cold War, many believed that the superpowers shared a conception of strategic stability, a coexistence where both sides would compete for global influence but would be deterred from using nuclear weapons. In actuality, both sides understood strategic stability and deterrence quite differently. Today’s international system is further complicated by more nuclear powers, regional rivalries, and nonstate actors who punch above their weight, but the United States and other nuclear powers still cling to old conceptions of strategic stability. The purpose of this book is to unpack and examine how different states in different regions view strategic stability, the use or non-use of nuclear weapons, and whether or not strategic stability is still a prevailing concept. The contributors to this volume explore policies of current and potential nuclear powers including the United States, Russia, China, India, Iran, Israel, Pakistan, and Saudi Arabia. This volume makes an important contribution toward understanding how nuclear weapons will impact the international system in the twenty-first century and will be useful to students, scholars, and practitioners of nuclear weapons policy.

Coercive Nuclear Campaigns in the 21st Century

Coercive Nuclear Campaigns in the 21st Century
Author: Kier A. Lieber
Publisher:
Total Pages: 46
Release: 2013
Genre: Deterrence (Strategy)
ISBN:

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This report examines why and how regional powers armed with nuclear weapons may employ those weapons coercively against the United States or U.S. allies during a conventional war. We argue that the problem of intra-war deterrence, preventing nuclear-armed adversaries from escalating during a conventional conflict, is arguably the most important deterrence challenge facing the United States in the 21st century. In today's world, relatively weaker adversaries face a range of incentives and options to use nuclear weapons coercively during conventional conflicts. Facing conventionally superior foes, regional nuclear-armed states will worry deeply about the consequences of military defeat. Recent history shows that such defeats are often extraordinarily costly for adversary leadership. Therefore, regional adversaries face powerful incentives to employ nuclear weapons coercively to stalemate their opponents before suffering major battlefield defeats and the attendant catastrophic consequences. The principallimplications of this study for U.S. policy makers can be summarized in five points.

The End of Strategic Stability?

The End of Strategic Stability?
Author: Lawrence Rubin
Publisher: Georgetown University Press
Total Pages: 323
Release: 2018-09-03
Genre: Political Science
ISBN: 162616603X

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During the Cold War, many believed that the superpowers shared a conception of strategic stability, a coexistence where both sides would compete for global influence but would be deterred from using nuclear weapons. In actuality, both sides understood strategic stability and deterrence quite differently. Today’s international system is further complicated by more nuclear powers, regional rivalries, and nonstate actors who punch above their weight, but the United States and other nuclear powers still cling to old conceptions of strategic stability. The purpose of this book is to unpack and examine how different states in different regions view strategic stability, the use or non-use of nuclear weapons, and whether or not strategic stability is still a prevailing concept. The contributors to this volume explore policies of current and potential nuclear powers including the United States, Russia, China, India, Iran, Israel, Pakistan, and Saudi Arabia. This volume makes an important contribution toward understanding how nuclear weapons will impact the international system in the twenty-first century and will be useful to students, scholars, and practitioners of nuclear weapons policy.

Facing a Nuclear Armed Adversary in a Regional Contingency: Implications for the Joint Commander

Facing a Nuclear Armed Adversary in a Regional Contingency: Implications for the Joint Commander
Author:
Publisher:
Total Pages: 25
Release: 1995
Genre:
ISBN:

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Among the many challenges facing the United States in the post-Cold War world, none will be more difficult or complex than facing a nuclear armed adversary in a regional contingency. One need only read today's headlines to acknowledge the validity of this threat and to contemplate the awesome responsibilities and risks that would be borne by a joint commander tasked to engage such an adversary. Despite years of experience conducting conventional operations and planning for Cold War nuclear contingencies, the nature of the new threat coupled with the unique destructive power and political implications of nuclear weapons will pose problems whose synergistic affect on the campaign is not yet clearly understood, and for which the commander is unprepared. The possibility of nuclear use will complicate campaign planning, affect course of action development and selection, and alter conventional war fighting doctrine and operations. The time is now for joint commanders to seriously consider and prepare for the nasty business of engaging a nuclear-armed regional adversary. Presidential tasking and deterrence credibility demand it. (MM).

U.S. nuclear policy in the 21st century a fresh look at national strategy and requirements: final report

U.S. nuclear policy in the 21st century a fresh look at national strategy and requirements: final report
Author:
Publisher: DIANE Publishing
Total Pages: 262
Release: 1998
Genre:
ISBN: 1428981322

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Sweeping changes are occurring in the international system, presenting the United States with both opportunities and challenges. The East-West strategic rivalry that dominated the global security environment for over forty years has been fundamentally and, in a number of critical ways, irreversibly altered. Yet the world continues to be unpredictable and dangerous. Relations with Russia and China have improved dramatically in the last ten years but remain uncertain. Both states continue to emphasize and modernize their nuclear arsenals. In other regions of vital interest to the United States, potential adversaries increasingly have at their disposal advanced conventional and unconventional capabilities, as well as weapons of mass destruction and the means for their delivery. Together, these and other factors, such as the ongoing revolution in military technology, have engendered major adjustments in U.S. national security policy and in the strategy and forces that support U.S. security interests. A series of U.S. government analyses, including the Nuclear Posture Review and the Quadrennial Defense Review, has guided the restructuring of U.S. conventional forces and provided the basis for the late 1997 Presidential Decision Directive on nuclear weapons policy. Further analyses and adjustments will certainly follow. As a contribution to this dynamic process, this report assesses the rationale and requirements for U.S. nuclear weapons, and the infrastructure and people that are critical to their sustainment, in the current and future security environment. By so doing, the report is intended to promote greater understanding of the issues and the measures that will be necessary to sustain deterrence in an uncertain future. The American public and its leadership in both the Executive and Legislative branches must remain informed, involved, and supportive. Absent concerted and continuing high-level attention to the policies and programs supporting its nuclear forces, 7.