Testing the Efficiency of African Markets

Testing the Efficiency of African Markets
Author: Daniel N. Simons
Publisher:
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2006
Genre:
ISBN:

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In this paper, we employ various tests to investigate the weak form of the efficient market hypothesis for four African stock markets - Ghana, Mauritius, Egypt and South Africa. The results of both parametric and non-parametric tests show that the South African stock market is weak form efficient, whereas that of Ghana, Mauritius and Egypt are weak form inefficient. This implies that successive security returns on the South African market are independent and follow a random walk. The same cannot be said of the other three markets. Consequently, we also fitted an ARIMA model to the excess return data for Ghana, Mauritius and Egypt using the Box-Jenkins method. The ARIMA models are then used to generate one-period ahead forecasts for the subsequent 12 periods for these three countries. The ARIMA forecasts in all three countries outperformed the naïve model, corroborating our initial inefficiency results from the earlier tests.

Efficient Market Hypothesis in Africa's Sub-Saharan Stock Markets

Efficient Market Hypothesis in Africa's Sub-Saharan Stock Markets
Author: Sebastian Groh
Publisher: GRIN Verlag
Total Pages: 69
Release: 2009-10-03
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 3640438531

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Bachelor Thesis from the year 2009 in the subject Economics - Case Scenarios, grade: 1,3, University of Mannheim (Lehrstuhl für Volkswirtschaftslehre, insbes. Ökonometrie), course: Bachelorarbeit, language: English, abstract: In recent years foreign aid was often conditioned on good institutions. Due to this course the development of financial institutions has been considered vital for the development process. This thesis points in its theoretical part to the positive effects of efficient stock markets on economic growth and examines empirically the efficiency of Africa's sub-Saharan stock markets. Results are then compared with the same tests on four emerging markets in Asia and as a benchmark on S&P 500 and DAX. It discusses further the relationship between market efficiency and financial crisis and comes to the conclusion that a crisis worsens the respective efficiency level. Nevertheless, all African markets are at least able to pass the critical lowest hurdle of market efficiency. However, conclusions from the research propose, that the Asian markets perform better than the African markets, although the study comes to some inconclusive results. Limits to the efficient market hypothesis itself and its empirical analysis are shown throughout the paper. The study suggests that former reforms need to be intensified in order to avoid a further increase in overall income inequalities.

Efficient Market Hypothesis in Africa’s Sub-Saharan Stock Markets

Efficient Market Hypothesis in Africa’s Sub-Saharan Stock Markets
Author: Sebastian Groh
Publisher: GRIN Verlag
Total Pages: 63
Release: 2009-10-02
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 3640438663

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Bachelor Thesis from the year 2009 in the subject Economics - Case Scenarios, grade: 1,3, University of Mannheim (Lehrstuhl für Volkswirtschaftslehre, insbes. Ökonometrie), course: Bachelorarbeit, language: English, abstract: In recent years foreign aid was often conditioned on good institutions. Due to this course the development of financial institutions has been considered vital for the development process. This thesis points in its theoretical part to the positive effects of efficient stock markets on economic growth and examines empirically the efficiency of Africa’s sub-Saharan stock markets. Results are then compared with the same tests on four emerging markets in Asia and as a benchmark on S&P 500 and DAX. It discusses further the relationship between market efficiency and financial crisis and comes to the conclusion that a crisis worsens the respective efficiency level. Nevertheless, all African markets are at least able to pass the critical lowest hurdle of market efficiency. However, conclusions from the research propose, that the Asian markets perform better than the African markets, although the study comes to some inconclusive results. Limits to the efficient market hypothesis itself and its empirical analysis are shown throughout the paper. The study suggests that former reforms need to be intensified in order to avoid a further increase in overall income inequalities.

Are African Stock Markets Inefficient Or Adaptive? Empirical Literature

Are African Stock Markets Inefficient Or Adaptive? Empirical Literature
Author: Paul-Francois Muzindutsi
Publisher:
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2019
Genre: Economics
ISBN:

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This chapter reviews empirical studies on weak form of efficiency with the aim of establishing whether the African market is inefficient or adaptive. The reviewed studies are categorised based on their methodological approaches to compare the power of linear and non-linear models in testing for weak-form efficiency. The studies on calendar anomalies, an indication of weak-form inefficiency, are reviewed to assess whether these anomalies are adaptive as portrayed by the relatively recent theory of adaptive market hypothesis (AMH). The scope of reviewed studies is also extended to developed and emerging markets to gain a broad comparison of the findings. This review revealed that non-linear dependence has been revealed in stock returns suggesting that non-linear models are best fit to test for the stock market efficiency. Reviewed studies produced contradictory findings with some supporting and others rejecting weak-form efficiency. Thus, most studies support the AMH, which suggests that market efficiencies and anomalies are time changing. This chapter concludes that most of the existing studies on AMH have been carried out in markets other than Africa, and hence, further empirical studies on the evolving and changing nature of efficiency in African stock markets are recommended.

The Emergence of Land Markets in Africa

The Emergence of Land Markets in Africa
Author: Stein T Holden
Publisher: Routledge
Total Pages: 337
Release: 2010-09-30
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1136523537

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This book is the first systematic attempt to address emerging land markets and their implications for poverty, equity, and efficiency across a number of African countries. The high incidence of poverty and the need for increased agricultural productivity remain acute in rural areas of sub-Saharan Africa, where a lack of secure land rights and a growing scarcity of land relative to the size of the population are becoming increasingly critical issues. Indeed, land issues in the region are high on the international policy agenda. Yet our knowledge about land tenure security and other rural factor markets (such as labor, oxen, manure, purchased inputs, and credit) is far from adequate to formulate sensible policies. The case studies in the book show that, while land markets and especially informal markets have been rapidly emerging in densely populated parts of Africa - and have generally been to the benefit of the poor--their functions remain imperfect. This is due to policy-induced tenure insecurity and the fragmentation of agricultural land. Applying rigorous quantitative analyses, the book provides a basis for taking into account the role of land markets in national land policies. All too often, the authors argue, land policies have been extreme, either prohibiting all land transactions or giving unrestricted freehold rights to a small elite at the expense of the poor. From the long experience in Asia, it is known that such policies are detrimental to both production efficiency and equity of land use. The authors argue that future policies in Africa should work with the markets. Regulations should be imposed only with careful testing that they are having the intended effects. The Emergence of Land Markets in Africa is a resource for teaching in developed and developing countries, as it provides both comprehensive reviews of the literature and detailed case studies. It is intended to facilitate the dialogue between researchers and policymakers, as well as inspire researchers to go further in their investigations and build an even stronger basis for good policies. The Emergence of Land Markets in Africa is the first publication in the new Environment for Development (EfD) book series. EfD books focus on research and applications in environmental and natural resource economics as they are relevant to poverty reduction and environmental problems in developing countries. The EfD book series is part of the EfD initiative. (www.environmentfordevelopment.org)

The Efficiency of African Stock Markets

The Efficiency of African Stock Markets
Author: Magnús Árni Magnússon
Publisher:
Total Pages: 212
Release: 1998
Genre: Efficient market theory
ISBN:

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Efficiency, Competition, and Welfare in African Agricultural Markets

Efficiency, Competition, and Welfare in African Agricultural Markets
Author: Lauren Falcao Bergquist
Publisher:
Total Pages: 165
Release: 2017
Genre:
ISBN:

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African agricultural markets are characterized by large variation in prices across regions and over the course of the season, suggesting poor market integration. This thesis explores the barriers that prevent various market actors from engaging in ecient arbitrage. Using exper- imental evidence and original survey data, I test for the existence of market failures that may limit integration and measure the ecacy of potential remedies to these market failures. In the first chapter, I quantify the degree of competition among the intermediates responsible for agricultural trade. In the second chapter, I explore whether entry by new intermediaries can enhance market competition. In the final chapter, Marshall Burke, Edward Miguel, and I test whether missing credit markets contribute to farmers' inability to arbitrage sea- sonal price fluctuations. Together, these three essays contribute to our understanding of agricultural market eciency, competition, and barriers to arbitrage. Each chapter employs experimental tests motivated by - and designed to speak directly to - economic theory. The first two chapters use randomized controlled trials to identify model parameters, while the third uses these trials to quantify general equilibrium effects and measure how such effects can shape the individual-level impacts of interventions. Methodologically, these essays exploit the clean causal identification generated by randomized controlled trials in new ways, in an attempt to shed light on the underlying organization of market institutions. The first chapter of this thesis estimates the level of competition among intermediaries in Kenyan agricultural markets. There has long been concern that the wedge between the low price farmers receive for their produce and the high price consumers pay for their food - and the resulting loss in producer and consumer welfare - are driven in part by imperfect competition among the intermediaries that connect them. However, there has been little definitive evidence on the market structure in which these intermediates are acting. A lack of record-keeping on the part of traders precludes accounting assessments of profits. Further, identifying clean cost shocks and tracing pass-through is made dicult by the ubiquitous nature of production and consumption of agricultural commodities, which drives co-movement in supply and demand. The first chapter overcomes these challenges by providing experimental estimates of pass- through and demand, key parameters governing the competitive environment of these markets. I identify these parameters using two randomized control trials that are tightly linked to a model of market competition. In the first experiment, I reduce the marginal costs of traders in randomly selected markets by offering to traders a subsidy per bag sold. I find that only 22% of this cost reduction is passed through to consumers. A second experiment offers randomized price discounts to consumers and measures corresponding quantities purchased in order to elicit the curvature of demand that traders face. I employ these estimates in a structural model of competition and optimal pricing to identify the level of competition among intermediaries. This exercise reveals a high degree of collusion among intermediaries, with large implied losses to consumer welfare and overall market efficiency. The second chapter explores the impact of one natural policy response to this low level of competition: greater firm entry. In order to identify the impact of firm entry on competition, I randomly incentivize the entry of new traders into markets. I find limited benefit for consumers, as prices decrease only 1% in response to entry by one new trader. By capturing the resulting effect on local market prices, I identify the implied change in the competitive environment due to entry. This is most consistent with a model in which entrants are able to readily enter into collusive agreements with incumbents, suggesting that market power is robust to entry in this context. The third chapter explores the barriers that limit arbitrage by farmers. Large and regular seasonal price fluctuations in local grain markets appear to offer African farmers substantial inter-temporal arbitrage opportunities, but these opportunities remain largely unexploited: small-scale farmers are commonly observed to "sell low and buy high" rather than the reverse. In a field experiment in Kenya, Marshall Burke, Edward Miguel, and I show that credit market imperfections limit farmers' abilities to move grain intertemporally, and that providing timely access to credit allows farmers to purchase at lower prices and sell at higher prices, increasing farm profits. To understand general equilibrium effects of these changes in behavior, we vary the density of loan offers across locations. We document significant effects of the credit intervention on seasonal price dispersion in local grain markets, and show that these general equilibrium effects strongly affect our individual level profitability estimates. In contrast to existing experimental work, our results indicate a setting in which microcredit can improve firm profitability, and suggest that general equilibrium effects can substantially shape estimates of microcredit's effectiveness. Taken together, these results suggest that considerable ineciencies exist in African agricultural markets. I find that agricultural traders in Kenya have considerable market power, and that marginal changes in market entry are unlikely to induce significant changes in competition. We further find that incomplete credit markets limit farmers' ability to arbitrage seasonal price fluctuations, and that the isolation of local markets reduces the sustainability of the financial products that may be necessary to encourage such arbitrage. These results have implications for the incidence of technological and infrastructure changes in African agriculture and for the policy responses aimed at improving the market environment.

The Efficiency of Emerging Stock Markets

The Efficiency of Emerging Stock Markets
Author: Abdelmoneim Youssef
Publisher:
Total Pages: 18
Release: 2013
Genre:
ISBN:

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This paper examines the efficiency in pricing securities as well as the relation between exchange rate and dynamics of equity returns in a number of emerging stock markets from Africa and Asia,. This study utilizes methodologies based on Single variance ratio test of Lo and Mackinlay (1988), multiple variance tests of Chow and Denning (1993), individual variance test based on ranks and signs of Wright (2000), Wild bootstrap test of Chow and Denning introduced by Kim (2006), and joint version of sign test of Wright by Kim and Shamsuddin (2008). Results shows that Egyptian, Moroccan and Indian exchanges are not in conformity with the Random Walk Hypothesis (RWH) from the perspective of both local and international investors. Whereas the first two markets are considered inefficient in pricing equities, from the perspective of both local and international investors, when monthly returns are employed. The Indian market supports that testing for RWH is sensitive to the frequency of data used. It is worth mentioning that empirical results demonstrate also insensitivity of testing of RWH to exchange rate changes. The main significance of our study is the use of the latest test methodologies in analyzing an investment area that is growing in the emerging stock markets.