The Recovery Theorem

The Recovery Theorem
Author: Stephen A. Ross
Publisher:
Total Pages: 57
Release: 2011
Genre: Economics
ISBN:

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We can only estimate the distribution of stock returns but we observe the distribution of risk neutral state prices. Risk neutral state prices are the product of risk aversion - the pricing kernel - and the natural probability distribution. The Recovery Theorem enables us to separate these and to determine the market's forecast of returns and the market's risk aversion from state prices alone. Among other things, this allows us to determine the pricing kernel, the market risk premium, the probability of a catastrophe, and to construct model free tests of the efficient market hypothesis.

Empirical Asset Pricing

Empirical Asset Pricing
Author: Wayne Ferson
Publisher: MIT Press
Total Pages: 497
Release: 2019-03-12
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0262039370

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An introduction to the theory and methods of empirical asset pricing, integrating classical foundations with recent developments. This book offers a comprehensive advanced introduction to asset pricing, the study of models for the prices and returns of various securities. The focus is empirical, emphasizing how the models relate to the data. The book offers a uniquely integrated treatment, combining classical foundations with more recent developments in the literature and relating some of the material to applications in investment management. It covers the theory of empirical asset pricing, the main empirical methods, and a range of applied topics. The book introduces the theory of empirical asset pricing through three main paradigms: mean variance analysis, stochastic discount factors, and beta pricing models. It describes empirical methods, beginning with the generalized method of moments (GMM) and viewing other methods as special cases of GMM; offers a comprehensive review of fund performance evaluation; and presents selected applied topics, including a substantial chapter on predictability in asset markets that covers predicting the level of returns, volatility and higher moments, and predicting cross-sectional differences in returns. Other chapters cover production-based asset pricing, long-run risk models, the Campbell-Shiller approximation, the debate on covariance versus characteristics, and the relation of volatility to the cross-section of stock returns. An extensive reference section captures the current state of the field. The book is intended for use by graduate students in finance and economics; it can also serve as a reference for professionals.

Market Pricing Beyond the Efficient Market Hypothesis

Market Pricing Beyond the Efficient Market Hypothesis
Author: Michael S. Rozeff
Publisher:
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2009
Genre:
ISBN:

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The first part of this paper derives the Market Pricing Maxim (MPM): market transaction prices fully reflect available information. This is not the same as the efficient market hypothesis (EMH). The MPM holds whether prices are unbiased estimates of fundamental value, as the EMH hypothesizes, or whether prices depart from fundamental values, as behavioral and noise models suggest. The MPM is put forward as a correct description of market pricing that can't be rejected, that is not an hypothesis, and that needs no testing to be known to be true. The EMH and behavioral models do not conflict over whether or not prices fully reflect available information. Prices have to and they do. They conflict over how prices reflect the information. The argument is over how close prices are to something called “fundamental value.” The paper goes on to discuss how various concepts are interpreted in an MPM world. There is discussion of value, propagation and meaning of information, prices, fundamental value, speculative profits, buying and issuing securities, risk, and a framework for empirical research. Next comes an extensive critique of the EMH (and to some extent behavioral models) in light of the MPM. A great deal of finance thinking that derives from EMH has to be substantially revised. For example, market prices are correct prices in the sense of reflecting all information, but this does not mean that prices are unbiased estimates of the true future prices. It is therefore dangerous to accept current prices at all times as the EMH suggests. Speculation is critical to markets, but the difficulty in making speculative profits arises not because prices are unbiased estimates of the true future prices or because properly discounted present values of assets vibrate randomly. It is because critical elements of the future that influence prices are mostly unknowable in changing ways that are unpredictable. The EMH notion that it is less than ideal (bad) if prices do not fully reflect all available information (that is, allow profits in the EMH view) is faulty. These judgments hinge on the notion that buyers and sellers can or should be able to allocate capital accurately in an efficient market without concern over whether prices are too high or too low. The sufficient conditions thought to produce market efficiency are all untenable, false, and highly misleading. The paper closes with a brief contrast between a more helpful ideal for capital markets than efficient markets, namely, free capital markets.

Alphanomics

Alphanomics
Author: Charles Lee
Publisher: Now Publishers
Total Pages: 212
Release: 2015-12-16
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9781601988928

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Alphanomics: The Informational Underpinnings of Market Efficiency is intended to be a compact introduction to academic research on market efficiency, behavioral finance, and fundamental analysis and is dedicated to the kind of decision-driven and prospectively-focused research that is much needed in a market constantly seeking to become more efficient. The authors refer to this type of research as Alphanomics, the informational economics behind market efficiency. Alpha refers to the abnormal returns, which provide the incentive for some subpopulation of investors to engage in information acquisition and costly arbitrage activities. Nomics refers to the economics of alpha extraction, which encompasses the costs and incentives of informational arbitrage as a sustainable business proposition. Some of the questions that are addressed include: why do we believe markets are efficient?; what problems have this belief engendered?; what factors can impede and/or facilitate market efficiency?; what roles do investor sentiment and costly arbitrage play in determining an equilibrium level of informational efficiency?; what is the essence of value investing?; how is it related to fundamental analysis (the study of historical financial data)?; and how might we distinguish between risk and mispricing based explanations for predictability patterns in returns? The first two sections review the evolution of academic thinking on market efficiency and introduce the noise trader model as a rational alternative. Section 3 surveys the literature on investor sentiment and its role as a source of both risks and returns. Section 4 discusses the role of fundamental analysis in value investing. Section 5 reviews the literature on limits to arbitrage, and section 6 discusses research methodology issues associated with the need to distinguish mispricing from risk.

Informational Efficiency in Developing Equity Markets

Informational Efficiency in Developing Equity Markets
Author: Mr.Paul Cashin
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 38
Release: 1995-06
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN:

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The issue of informational efficiency in the evolution of asset prices is examined using data on equity markets in Jordan, Turkey and Pakistan over the period 1986–93. The analysis is carried out in two steps. The parameters of agents’ dynamic consumption and investment decisions are first estimated, and then the implied equity market price, based on market fundamentals, is compared with the actual evolution of equity market prices. While the informational efficiency of each of the three markets is found to be deficient, the causes of market inefficiency are varied. For Jordan it appears that a large negative shock to economic activity in the late 1980s caused agents to discount market fundamentals. For Turkey and Pakistan it is likely that institutional and legal rigidities in equity and banking markets resulted in these markets being illiquid, although this lack of market depth did reduce in severity for Turkey over the sample period, as liberalization of financial markets occurred.

Asset Pricing

Asset Pricing
Author: John H. Cochrane
Publisher: Princeton University Press
Total Pages: 560
Release: 2009-04-11
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1400829135

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Winner of the prestigious Paul A. Samuelson Award for scholarly writing on lifelong financial security, John Cochrane's Asset Pricing now appears in a revised edition that unifies and brings the science of asset pricing up to date for advanced students and professionals. Cochrane traces the pricing of all assets back to a single idea--price equals expected discounted payoff--that captures the macro-economic risks underlying each security's value. By using a single, stochastic discount factor rather than a separate set of tricks for each asset class, Cochrane builds a unified account of modern asset pricing. He presents applications to stocks, bonds, and options. Each model--consumption based, CAPM, multifactor, term structure, and option pricing--is derived as a different specification of the discounted factor. The discount factor framework also leads to a state-space geometry for mean-variance frontiers and asset pricing models. It puts payoffs in different states of nature on the axes rather than mean and variance of return, leading to a new and conveniently linear geometrical representation of asset pricing ideas. Cochrane approaches empirical work with the Generalized Method of Moments, which studies sample average prices and discounted payoffs to determine whether price does equal expected discounted payoff. He translates between the discount factor, GMM, and state-space language and the beta, mean-variance, and regression language common in empirical work and earlier theory. The book also includes a review of recent empirical work on return predictability, value and other puzzles in the cross section, and equity premium puzzles and their resolution. Written to be a summary for academics and professionals as well as a textbook, this book condenses and advances recent scholarship in financial economics.

A Behavioral Approach to Asset Pricing

A Behavioral Approach to Asset Pricing
Author: Hersh Shefrin
Publisher: Elsevier
Total Pages: 636
Release: 2008-05-19
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0080482244

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Behavioral finance is the study of how psychology affects financial decision making and financial markets. It is increasingly becoming the common way of understanding investor behavior and stock market activity. Incorporating the latest research and theory, Shefrin offers both a strong theory and efficient empirical tools that address derivatives, fixed income securities, mean-variance efficient portfolios, and the market portfolio. The book provides a series of examples to illustrate the theory. The second edition continues the tradition of the first edition by being the one and only book to focus completely on how behavioral finance principles affect asset pricing, now with its theory deepened and enriched by a plethora of research since the first edition

Financial Valuation And Econometrics (2nd Edition)

Financial Valuation And Econometrics (2nd Edition)
Author: Kian Guan Lim
Publisher: World Scientific Publishing Company
Total Pages: 604
Release: 2015-04-15
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 981464403X

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This book is an introduction to financial valuation and financial data analyses using econometric methods. It is intended for advanced finance undergraduates and graduates. Most chapters in the book would contain one or more finance application examples where finance concepts, and sometimes theory, are taught.This book is a modest attempt to bring together several important domains in financial valuation theory, in econometrics modelling, and in the empirical analyses of financial data. These domains are highly intertwined and should be properly understood in order to correctly and effectively harness the power of data and statistical or econometrics methods for investment and financial decision-making.The contribution in this book, and at the same time, its novelty, is in employing materials in basic econometrics, particularly linear regression analyses, and weaving into it threads of foundational finance theory, concepts, ideas, and models. It provides a clear pedagogical approach to allow very effective learning by a finance student who wants to be well equipped in both theory and ability to research the data.This is a handy book for finance professionals doing research to easily access the key techniques in data analyses using regression methods. Students learn all 3 skills at once — finance, econometrics, and data analyses. It provides for very solid and useful learning for advanced undergraduate and graduate students who wish to work in financial analyses, risk analyses, and financial research areas.