Technical Trading and the Volatility of Exchange Rates

Technical Trading and the Volatility of Exchange Rates
Author: Bernhard Herz
Publisher:
Total Pages: 37
Release: 2007
Genre:
ISBN:

Download Technical Trading and the Volatility of Exchange Rates Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle

The microeconomic structure of foreign exchange markets can cause excessive volatility in flexible exchange rate regimes. The market entry of chartists changes the composition of the foreign exchange market and leads to excessive volatility. Our chartist model predicts a continuum of equilibria and an U-shaped relation between exchange rate volatility and the measured trend, which is supported by the empirical evidence. The data show a positive nonlinear relation between trend and volatility, as predicted by the model. In such a situation monetary policy may be able to smooth the exchange rate without changing macroeconomic fundamentals.

Technical Trading, Monetary Policy, and Exchange Rate Regimes

Technical Trading, Monetary Policy, and Exchange Rate Regimes
Author: Bernhard Herz
Publisher:
Total Pages: 31
Release: 2007
Genre:
ISBN:

Download Technical Trading, Monetary Policy, and Exchange Rate Regimes Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle

The paper extends and empirically tests the noise trader exchange rate model of Jeanne and Rose (2002). We introduce technical trading in the exchange market as a source of noise and explicitly incorporate monetary and exchange rate policy. With these modifications it is possible to directly test the model's prediction of an U shaped relation between exchange trend and volatility. We find strong empirical evidence supporting the implications of the model. As a corollary we develop a measure of excess exchange rate volatility and categorize exchange rate regimes based on the de facto behavior of the exchange rates.The paper extends and empirically tests the noise trader exchange rate model of Jeanne and Rose (2002). We introduce technical trading in the exchange market as a source of noise and explicitly incorporate monetary and exchange rate policy. With these modifications it is possible to directly test the model's prediction of an U shaped relation between exchange trend and volatility. We find strong empirical evidence supporting the implications of the model. As a corollary we develop a measure of excess exchange rate volatility and categorize exchange rate regimes based on the de facto behavior of the exchange rates.

Noise Trading, Central Bank Interventions, and the Informational Content of Foreign Currency Options

Noise Trading, Central Bank Interventions, and the Informational Content of Foreign Currency Options
Author: Christian Pierdzioch
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 232
Release: 2001-12-06
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9783540427452

Download Noise Trading, Central Bank Interventions, and the Informational Content of Foreign Currency Options Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle

A flexible instrument to insure against adverse exchange rate movements are options on foreign currency. Often a relatively simple foreign currency option valuation model is used to address issues related to the pricing and hedging of such options. The results of many empirical studies document that real-world foreign currency option premia deviate from those predicted by the baseline model. In the first part of the book, it is shown that a noise trader model can help to explain the observed mispricing of the baseline foreign currency option pricing model. In the second part of the book, it is studied how policymakers can exploit the pricing errors of the baseline model. In particular, it is examined how option pricing theory can be applied to assess the effectiveness of central bank interventions in the foreign exchange market. To this end, a model is constructed to analyze the effectiveness of the interventions conducted by the Deutsche Bundesbank during the Louvre period.

Charting the Major Forex Pairs

Charting the Major Forex Pairs
Author: James Lauren Bickford
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Total Pages: 258
Release: 2007-04-10
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0470139285

Download Charting the Major Forex Pairs Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle

A revolutionary approach to analyzing the foreign exchange markets All markets move in patterns. Being able to visualize and analyze those patterns can offer powerful advantages for traders in every market. Traditionally, though, technical analysis has been the preferred technique for Forex traders. In this pioneering book, Michael Archer and James Bickford expand upon the use of technical indicators by studying and charting the most commonly traded currency pairs. Featuring numerous historical charts generated by proprietary software and charting system, Charting the Major Forex Pairs provides Forex traders with a graphical interpretation of the markets, enabling them to instantly see patterns, and to enter into and exit positions with confidence.

Handbook of Exchange Rates

Handbook of Exchange Rates
Author: Jessica James
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Total Pages: 674
Release: 2012-05-29
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1118445775

Download Handbook of Exchange Rates Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle

Praise for Handbook of Exchange Rates “This book is remarkable. I expect it to become the anchor reference for people working in the foreign exchange field.” —Richard K. Lyons, Dean and Professor of Finance, Haas School of Business, University of California Berkeley “It is quite easily the most wide ranging treaty of expertise on the forex market I have ever come across. I will be keeping a copy close to my fingertips.” —Jim O’Neill, Chairman, Goldman Sachs Asset Management How should we evaluate the forecasting power of models? What are appropriate loss functions for major market participants? Is the exchange rate the only means of adjustment? Handbook of Exchange Rates answers these questions and many more, equipping readers with the relevant concepts and policies for working in today’s international economic climate. Featuring contributions written by leading specialists from the global financial arena, this handbook provides a collection of original ideas on foreign exchange (FX) rates in four succinct sections: • Overview introduces the history of the FX market and exchange rate regimes, discussing key instruments in the trading environment as well as macro and micro approaches to FX determination. • Exchange Rate Models and Methods focuses on forecasting exchange rates, featuring methodological contributions on the statistical methods for evaluating forecast performance, parity relationships, fair value models, and flow–based models. • FX Markets and Products outlines active currency management, currency hedging, hedge accounting; high frequency and algorithmic trading in FX; and FX strategy-based products. • FX Markets and Policy explores the current policies in place in global markets and presents a framework for analyzing financial crises. Throughout the book, topics are explored in-depth alongside their founding principles. Each chapter uses real-world examples from the financial industry and concludes with a summary that outlines key points and concepts. Handbook of Exchange Rates is an essential reference for fund managers and investors as well as practitioners and researchers working in finance, banking, business, and econometrics. The book also serves as a valuable supplement for courses on economics, business, and international finance at the upper-undergraduate and graduate levels.

Mastering the Currency Market: Forex Strategies for High and Low Volatility Markets

Mastering the Currency Market: Forex Strategies for High and Low Volatility Markets
Author: Jay Norris
Publisher: McGraw Hill Professional
Total Pages: 319
Release: 2009-12-04
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0071713700

Download Mastering the Currency Market: Forex Strategies for High and Low Volatility Markets Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle

Make Volatility and Risk Work for You with Forex Trading! “This book should be in every trader/investor’s library. As we come out of this depressed market . . . this book can be your companion, helping you avoid mistakes and enhance your trading/investment program.” —Bill M. Williams, author of Trading Chaos “Whether you’re just getting started trading the world’s most exciting financial market, or you’re looking to add to your trading edge, [the authors] have written an engaging book packed with powerful techniques that you can use right now.” —Rob Booker, trader, author, educator, and founder and host of TraderRadio.net The foreign exchange market is the largest trading market in the world, with average daily volume well into the trillions. Because the market is always characterized by high liquidity, forex traders benefit most from volatile markets—making it the ideal investment approach today and well into the future. Mastering the Currency Market is a comprehensive guide to currency and futures trading strategies and techniques for both highly volatile and nonvolatile markets. Putting to work their vast and highly diverse experience in forex trading, the authors explain how to take advantage of the many benefits of foreign exchange trading, including its low cost of entry afforded by margin, and the dynamic pricing by nature of the competitive marketplace. Mastering the Currency Market is divided into five sections covering: The basics of trading currencies Fundamental analysis of price valuation Technical analysis and trading charts Trading philosophy and psychological discipline Volatility and risk management With four decades of combined experience, the authors clearly communicate to you a trading method that will give you the confidence to both analyze markets and execute trades successfully, regardless of underlying market conditions. As 2008 introduced nightmare scenarios for investors around the world, it was Al Gaskill’s most productive period of his trading career. He used the same trading methods spelled out in this book. Apply the lessons inside and you’ll see profits rise during periods of high market volatility, and when the market slows down, you can downshift to countertrending methods. It’s a win-win investing method, and Mastering the Currency Market leads you through it every step of the way.

Technical Analysis of the Currency Market

Technical Analysis of the Currency Market
Author: Boris Schlossberg
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Total Pages: 224
Release: 2006-07-28
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0471973068

Download Technical Analysis of the Currency Market Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle

Proven currency-specific trading strategies from one of today's top currency analysts "If you trade currency, then you need to have this book on your desk. It's the only book you need for technical analysis of the fastest-moving market on the planet." -Rob Booker, Currency Trader, W.R. Booker & Company "In plain English, Schlossberg lays out the basics in using technical analysis to trade foreign currencies, from the fundamentals of how the FX market works to the variety of technical strategies and trade management techniques traders can employ. Along the way, he offers entertaining examples and observations as well as simple, easy-to-read charts and diagrams. Anyone interested in getting started in the hugely popular FX market would do well to begin with this book." -Sarah Rudolph, Executive Editor, SFO Magazine "Boris Schlossberg has done a fabulous job with this book. It's packed with insightful tips and strategies that are sure to save traders a lot of time and money." -Cory Janssen, CoFounder, Investopedia.com "Schlossberg's book is a great resource for traders just starting out in currency markets. His focus on simplicity is critical for a new trader's education on how to make money." -Andrew B. Busch, Global FX Strategist, BMO Financial Group

Volatility-Based Technical Analysis

Volatility-Based Technical Analysis
Author: Kirk Northington
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Total Pages: 480
Release: 2009-08-11
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0470522305

Download Volatility-Based Technical Analysis Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle

A framework for creating volatility-based technical analysis and trading it for profit Volatility-Based Technical Analysis bridges the advantage gap between resource rich institutions and individual traders. It is a no-calculus, plain-English text that reveals original, highly technical, mathematical-based volatility indicators, complete with MetaStock® and TradeStation® code. With this in hand, any trader can "trade the invisible" by seeing a hidden mathematical structure on the price chart. Author Kirk Northington reveals his proprietary volatility indicators that serve as a market early warning system. Northington extensively teaches you how to build your own indicators, test them, and incorporate your original components into your specific trading methods. Walks traders through the mathematical techniques needed to create indicators that fit their own style Illustrates volatility-based entries and exits with over 170 descriptive chart examples Introduces two new concepts in technical analysis: Volatility Shift and PIV Written with the serious trader in mind, Volatility-Based Technical Analysis has what you need to successfully trade today's institutionally dominated markets.

Essentials of Foreign Exchange Trading

Essentials of Foreign Exchange Trading
Author: James Chen
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Total Pages: 202
Release: 2009-03-11
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0470464003

Download Essentials of Foreign Exchange Trading Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle

This currency trading book provides readers with real, practical information on how to trade the foreign exchange market effectively. It begins by covering introductory information on the forex market, including basic trading mechanics and the benefits of forex trading, and then goes on to describe specific currency trading methods and skills in step-by-step detail. This includes highly practical information on technical and fundamental analysis, risk and money management, and powerful forex trading strategies. These strategies have proven extremely effective in helping traders play the forex game to win. JAMES CHEN, CTA, CMT (Montville, NJ) is Chief Technical Strategist at FX Solutions, a leading foreign exchange broker. An expert on forex trading and technical analysis, he is also a registered Commodity Trading Advisor (CTA) and a Chartered Market Technician (CMT). Mr. Chen writes daily currency analysis, leads forex trading seminars, and has authored numerous articles on currency trading strategy and technical analysis for major financial publications. These include Forbes.com, Futures Magazine, Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities Magazine, and Stocks, Futures and Options (SFO) Magazine.