Taking Stock of IMF Capacity Development on Monetary Policy Forecasting and Policy Analysis Systems

Taking Stock of IMF Capacity Development on Monetary Policy Forecasting and Policy Analysis Systems
Author: John C. Odling-Smee
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 68
Release: 1993
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 155775327X

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This paper takes stock of forecasting and policy analysis system capacity development (FPAS CD), drawing extensively on the experience and lessons learned from developing FPAS capacity in the central banks. By sharing the insights gained during FPAS CD delivery and outlining the typical tools developed in the process, the paper aims to facilitate the understanding of FPAS CD within the IMF and to inform future CD on building macroeconomic frameworks. As such, the paper offers a qualitative assessment of the experience with FPAS CD delivery and the use of FPAS in the decision-making process in central banks.

Evolving Monetary Policy Frameworks in Low-Income and Other Developing Countries

Evolving Monetary Policy Frameworks in Low-Income and Other Developing Countries
Author: International Monetary Fund
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 74
Release: 2015-10-23
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1498344062

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Over the past two decades, many low- and lower-middle income countries (LLMICs) have improved control over fiscal policy, liberalized and deepened financial markets, and stabilized inflation at moderate levels. Monetary policy frameworks that have helped achieve these ends are being challenged by continued financial development and increased exposure to global capital markets. Many policymakers aspire to move beyond the basics of stability to implement monetary policy frameworks that better anchor inflation and promote macroeconomic stability and growth. Many of these LLMICs are thus considering and implementing improvements to their monetary policy frameworks. The recent successes of some LLMICs and the experiences of emerging and advanced economies, both early in their policy modernization process and following the global financial crisis, are valuable in identifying desirable features of such frameworks. This paper draws on those lessons to provide guidance on key elements of effective monetary policy frameworks for LLMICs.

Quarterly Projection Model for the Bank of Ghana

Quarterly Projection Model for the Bank of Ghana
Author: Philip Abradu-Otoo
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 39
Release: 2022-09-02
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN:

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The paper describes the Quarterly Projection Model (QPM) that underlies the Bank of Ghana Forecasting and Policy Analysis System (FPAS). The New Keynesian semi-structural model incorporates the main features of the Ghanaian economy, transmission channels and policy framework, including an inflation targeting central bank and aggregate demand effects of fiscal policy. The shock propagation mechanisms embedded in the calibrated QPM demonstrate its theoretical consistency, while out-of-sample forecasting accuracy validates its empirical robustness. Another important part of the QPM is endogenous policy credibility, which may aggravate policy trade-offs in the model and make it more realistic for developing economies. Historical track record of real time policy analysis and medium-term forecasting conducted with the QPM – as a component of the broader FPAS analytical organization – establishes its critical role in supporting the Bank’s forward-looking monetary policy framework.

Quarterly Projection Model for India

Quarterly Projection Model for India
Author: Mr.Jaromir Benes
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 41
Release: 2017-02-13
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1475578709

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This paper outlines the key features of the production version of the quarterly projection model (QPM), which is a forward-looking open-economy gap model, calibrated to represent the Indian case, for generating forecasts and risk assessment as well as conducting policy analysis. QPM incorporates several India-specific features like the importance of the agricultural sector and food prices in the inflation process; features of monetary policy transmission and implications of an endogenous credibility process for monetary policy formulation. The paper also describes key properties and historical decompositions of some important macroeconomic variables.

Monetary Policy Implementation: Operational Issues for Countries with Evolving Monetary Policy Frameworks

Monetary Policy Implementation: Operational Issues for Countries with Evolving Monetary Policy Frameworks
Author: Nils Mæhle
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 57
Release: 2020-02-07
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1513526855

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This paper discusses operational issues for countries that want to reform their monetary policy frameworks. It argues that stabilizing short-term interest rates on a day-to-day basis has significant advantages, and thus that short-term interest rates, not reserve money, in most cases should be the daily operating target, including for countries relying on a money targeting policy strategy. The paper discusses how a policy formulation framework based on monetary aggregates can be combined with an operational framework that ensures more stable and predictable short-term rates to enhance policy transmission. It also discusses how to best configure an interest-rate-based operational framework when markets are underdeveloped and liqudity management capacity is weak.

International Monetary Fund Annual Report 2021

International Monetary Fund Annual Report 2021
Author: International Monetary Fund. Secretary's Department
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 74
Release: 2021-10-04
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1513568817

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A recovery is underway, but the economic fallout from the global pandemic could be with us for years to come. With the crisis exacerbating prepandemic vulnerabilities, country prospects are diverging. Nearly half of emerging market and developing economies and some middle-income countries are now at risk of falling further behind, undoing much of the progress made toward achieving the UN Sustainable Development Goals.

Republic of Armenia

Republic of Armenia
Author: International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 36
Release: 2023-12-14
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN:

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Republic of Armenia: Selected Issues

Monetary and Exchange System Reforms in China

Monetary and Exchange System Reforms in China
Author: Mr.Bernard Laurens
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 108
Release: 1996-09-26
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9781557755629

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In 1978, China embarked on a gradual but far-reaching reform of its economic system. This paper focuses on the achievements so far in reforming the financial sector, the legal framework for financial transactions, the payments system, and the monetary policy and foreign exchange system. It also analyzes the tasks ahead to achieve the goals set in these areas for the year 2000.

An Extended Quarterly Projection Model for the Central Bank of Jordan

An Extended Quarterly Projection Model for the Central Bank of Jordan
Author: Adel Al-Sharkas
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 84
Release: 2023-08-25
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN:

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The Central Bank of Jordan (CBJ) has developed a Forecasting and Policy Analysis System (FPAS) to serve as a reliable analytical framework for macroeconomic analysis, forecasting and decision-making under a pegged exchange rate regime. At the heart of the FPAS is the CBJ’s extended Jordan Analysis Model (JAM2.0). The model captures the monetary transmission mechanism and provides a consistent monetary policy framework that uses the exchange rate as an effective nominal anchor. This paper outlines the structure and properties of JAM2.0 and emphasizes the enhanced interplay and tradeoffs among monetary, fiscal, and foreign exchange management policies. Simulation and forecasting exercises demonstrate JAM2.0’s ability to match key stylized facts of the Jordanian economy, produce accurate forecasts of important macroeconomic variables, and explain the critical relationships among policies.