Surplus Labour and Lewis Turning Points in China

Surplus Labour and Lewis Turning Points in China
Author: Xiaobing Wang
Publisher:
Total Pages: 15
Release: 2013
Genre:
ISBN:

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It has been widely recognized that China has had a large pool of surplus labour. However, despite its significant implications for wage levels and the Chinese economy, the current debates yield conflicting results as to whether the Lewis turning point has been reached. This paper clarifies a theoretical issue about the mechanisms of surplus labour absorption, subsequently indentifies two Lewis turning points, and examines the factors that affect the reaching of these two Lewis turning points. It then applies the framework to China to study the labour absorption process and examines the implications of the removal of the Hukou system in terms of welfare and economic performance.

Chronicle of a Decline Foretold

Chronicle of a Decline Foretold
Author: Ms.Mitali Das
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 21
Release: 2013-01-29
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1475525192

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China is on the eve of a demographic shift that will have profound consequences on its economic and social landscape. Within a few years the working age population will reach a historical peak, and then begin a precipitous decline. This fact, along with anecdotes of rapidly rising migrant wages and episodic labor shortages, has raised questions about whether China is poised to cross the Lewis Turning Point, a point at which it would move from a vast supply of low-cost workers to a labor shortage economy. Crossing this threshold will have far-reaching implications for both China and the rest of the world. This paper empirically assesses when the transition to a labor shortage economy is likely to occur. Our central result is that on current trends, the Lewis Turning Point will emerge between 2020 and 2025. Alternative scenarios—with higher fertility, greater labor participation rates, financial reform or higher productivity—may peripherally delay or accelerate the onset of the turning point, but demographics will be the dominant force driving the depletion of surplus labor.

Chronicle of a Decline Foretold

Chronicle of a Decline Foretold
Author: Ms.Mitali Das
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 21
Release: 2013-01-29
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1475548249

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China is on the eve of a demographic shift that will have profound consequences on its economic and social landscape. Within a few years the working age population will reach a historical peak, and then begin a precipitous decline. This fact, along with anecdotes of rapidly rising migrant wages and episodic labor shortages, has raised questions about whether China is poised to cross the Lewis Turning Point, a point at which it would move from a vast supply of low-cost workers to a labor shortage economy. Crossing this threshold will have far-reaching implications for both China and the rest of the world. This paper empirically assesses when the transition to a labor shortage economy is likely to occur. Our central result is that on current trends, the Lewis Turning Point will emerge between 2020 and 2025. Alternative scenarios—with higher fertility, greater labor participation rates, financial reform or higher productivity—may peripherally delay or accelerate the onset of the turning point, but demographics will be the dominant force driving the depletion of surplus labor.

Debating the Lewis Turning Point in China

Debating the Lewis Turning Point in China
Author: Yiping Huang
Publisher: Routledge
Total Pages: 228
Release: 2016-04-08
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1134925980

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HUANG Yiping is Professor of Economics at the China Center for Economic Research, National School of Development, Peking University, China. He is also an adjunct professor at the Australian National University and a member of the China Finance 40 Forum. His current research focuses on macroeconomic policy, international finance and rural development. CAI Fang is Director, Professor and Fellow at the Institute of Population and Labor Economics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, China. He serves as Vice Chairman of the China Population Association. His current research focuses on China’s labor migration, population and development, economic reform, income distribution and poverty.

China Has Reached the Lewis Turning Point

China Has Reached the Lewis Turning Point
Author: Xiaobo Zhang
Publisher:
Total Pages: 22
Release: 2010
Genre:
ISBN:

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In the past several years, labor shortages in China have become an issue. However, there is heated debate as to whether China has passed the Lewis turning point and moved from a period of unlimited supply to a new era of labor shortage. Most empirical studies on this topic focus on estimation of total labor supply and demand. Yet the poor quality of China's labor statistics leaves the debate open. In this paper, China's position along the Lewis continuum is examined though primary surveys of wage rates, which offer a more reliable statistic than employment data. Our results show a clear rising trend in real wage rates since 2003. The acceleration of real wages even in slack seasons indicates that the era of surplus labor is over. This finding has important policy implications for China's future development.

China’s Economic Growth Prospects

China’s Economic Growth Prospects
Author: Cai Fang
Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing
Total Pages: 247
Release: 2016-01-29
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1781005850

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China has grown rapidly since the reform initiation of the 1970s. China’s Economic Growth Prospects narrates the contribution of demographic transition to recent economic growth in China, and provides suggestions for ways in which it can sustain growth over the next few decades. The expert author provides reasons for the economic slowdown since the second decade of the twenty-first century; explores the challenges facing China’s long-term sustainability of growth with the disappearance of demographic dividend; and proposes policy suggestions. He concludes that, in order to avoid the middle-income trap, economic growth in China must transform from an inputs-driven pattern, to a productivity-driven pattern. Academics, researchers and students of economics and business, particularly those specialising in China, will find this book to be a useful resource. Investment bankers, journalists, politicians and policy makers will find the discussions of past experience and the future potential of the Chinese economy to be of interest.

The China Population and Labor Yearbook, Volume 1

The China Population and Labor Yearbook, Volume 1
Author: Fang Cai
Publisher: BRILL
Total Pages: 328
Release: 2009-05-06
Genre: Social Science
ISBN: 9004180575

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This yearbook is a collection of important articles by demographers and economists from CASS and other top research and policy institutes in China. Several of the articles in this volume are based on major labor and population surveys carried out in recent years.

The Rise of China and India

The Rise of China and India
Author: A. Santos-Paulino
Publisher: Springer
Total Pages: 303
Release: 2010-10-13
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0230282091

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This volume is a timely addition to the emerging literature on the rise of China and India, focusing on how rapid economic growth and geopolitical changes in these countries are reshaping the world economy and global governance. It covers issues such as productivity, labor market, trade competition, and energy.

Understanding China's Economy

Understanding China's Economy
Author: Fang Cai
Publisher: Springer Nature
Total Pages: 278
Release: 2021-03-23
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9813363223

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This book reviews and examines the reform and opening up in China from 1978 to 2011. It analyzes how China avoided to fall into the middle-income trap over those 33 years. The book makes a deep analysis of understanding how Chinese economy became a miracle in the world economic history and its development stages, as well as the overseas erroneous understanding of the existence of Chinese economy. The author analyzes from three aspects: how to break the “impossible triangle”, how to achieve middle-to-high speed growth in L model, and how to release a new dividend of urbanization. After Chinese economy entered the Lewis turning point, China faced the dilemma of labor transformation and the disappearance of demographic dividend, the demographic dividend turned to the reform dividend. The author points out and suggests that a new round of growth should be achieved by improving the total factor productivity in order to find a new way for the Chinese economy. This book plays an important role of comprehending Chinese economy under current complex economic situation. This book helps readers to understand Chinese economy from many aspects: impossible triangle, L model growth, Malthus trap, dual economy, aging problem, demographic dividend, reform dividend, trap of middle income, globalization, etc. The author as an economist aims for the public explaining the professional knowledge in a concise and easy way. This book delivers the information of discerning and understanding the economic trend, and predicting the future.

Demographic Perspective of China’s Economic Development

Demographic Perspective of China’s Economic Development
Author: Cai Fang
Publisher: Routledge
Total Pages: 267
Release: 2020-05-17
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1000052826

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China is historically famous for its high demographic dividend and its huge working population, and this has driven tremendous economic growth over the past few decades. However, that population has begun to shrink and the Lewis turning point whereby surplus rural population has been absorbed into manufacturing is also approaching, leading to great change in the Chinese labor market. Will this negatively affect China’s economic growth? Can the "Middle-Income Trap" be avoided? What reforms should be made on the labor supply side? This book tackles these key questions. This book is a collection of 14 papers presenting the author’s observations, analysis, and opinions of China’s long-term economic development from the demographic perspective, while analysing real economic problems from the past and including policy recommendations. It provides a critical reference for scholars and students interested in Chinese economic development and demographic perspectives on economic development.