Structural and Cyclical Forces in the Labor Market During the Great Recession

Structural and Cyclical Forces in the Labor Market During the Great Recession
Author: Luca Sala
Publisher:
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2012
Genre: Economics
ISBN:

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We use an estimated monetary business cycle model with search and matching frictions in the labor market and nominal price and wage rigidities to study four countries (the U.S., the U.K., Sweden, and Germany) during the financial crisis and the Great Recession. We estimate the model over the period prior to the financial crisis and use the model to interpret movements in GDP, unemployment, vacancies, and wages in the period from 2007 until 2011. We show that contractionary financial factors and reduced efficiency in labor market matching were largely responsible for the experience in the U.S. Financial factors were also important in the U.K., but less so in Sweden and Germany. Reduced matching efficiency was considerably less important in the U.K. and Sweden than in the U.S., but matching efficiency improved in Germany, helping to keep unemployment low. A counterfactual experiment suggests that unemployment in Germany would have been substantially higher if the German labor market had been more similar to that in the U.S.

To Fire or to Hoard? Explaining Japan’s Labor Market Response in the Great Recession

To Fire or to Hoard? Explaining Japan’s Labor Market Response in the Great Recession
Author: Mr.Masato Nakane
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 31
Release: 2011-01-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1455212512

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The Great Recession pushed Japan’s unemployment rate to historic highs, but the increase has been small by international standards and small relative to the large output shock. This paper explores Japan’s cyclical labor market response to the global financial crisis. Our findings suggest that: (i) employment responsiveness has been historically low but rising over time with the increasing importance of the non-regular workforce; (ii) the labor market response was consistent with historical patterns once we control for the size of the output shock; and (iii) the comparatively lower employment response vis-à-vis other countries can in part be explained by the quick implementation of an employment subsidy program, a more flexible wage system, and a corporate governance structure that places workers rights above shareholders.

Labor Force Participation and Monetary Policy in the Wake of the Great Recession

Labor Force Participation and Monetary Policy in the Wake of the Great Recession
Author: Christopher J. Erceg
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 60
Release: 2013-12-16
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1484301455

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In this paper, we provide compelling evidence that cyclical factors account for the bulk of the post-2007 decline in the U.S. labor force participation rate. We then proceed to formulate a stylized New Keynesian model in which labor force participation is essentially acyclical during “normal times” (that is, in response to small or transitory shocks) but drops markedly in the wake of a large and persistent aggregate demand shock. Finally, we show that these considerations can have potentially crucial implications for the design of monetary policy, especially under circumstances in which adjustments to the short-term interest rate are constrained by the zero lower bound.

Regional Labor Market Adjustments in the United States

Regional Labor Market Adjustments in the United States
Author: Mai Dao
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 51
Release: 2014-11-25
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1498380433

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We examine patterns of regional adjustments to shocks in the US during the past four decades. We find that the response of interstate migration to relative labor market conditions has decreased, while the role of the unemployment rate as absorber of regional shocks has increased. However, the response of net migration to regional shocks is stronger during aggregate downturns and increased particularly during the Great Recession. We offer a potential explanation for the cyclical pattern of migration response based on the variation in consumption risk sharing.

Economic Modeling in the Post Great Recession Era

Economic Modeling in the Post Great Recession Era
Author: John E. Silvia
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Total Pages: 354
Release: 2016-12-14
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1119350824

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Reality-based modeling for today's unique economic recovery Economic Modeling in the Post Great Recession Era presents a more realistic approach to modeling, using direct statistical applications to address the characteristics and trends central to current market behaviors. This book's unique focus on the reality of today's markets makes it an invaluable resource for students and practitioners seeking a comprehensive guide to more accurate forecasting. While most books treat the economy as if it were in a vacuum, building models around idealized or perception-biased behaviors, this book deals with the economy as it currently stands—in a state of recovery, limited by financial constraints, imperfect information, and lags and disparities in price movements. The authors identify how these characteristics impact various markets' behaviors, and quantify those behaviors using SAS as the primary statistical tool. Today's economy bears a number of unique attributes that usual modeling methods fail to consider. This book describes how to approach modeling based on real-world, observable data in order to make better-informed decisions in today's markets. Discover the three economic characteristics with the greatest impact on various markets Create economic models that mirror the current post-recession reality Adopt statistical methods that identify and adapt to structural breaks and lags Factor real-world imperfections into modeling for more accurate forecasting The past few years have shown a clear demarcation between policymakers' forecasts and actual outcomes. As the dust settles on the Great Recession, after-effects linger—and impact our current recovery in ways that diverge from past experience and theoretical expectations. Economic Modeling in the Post Great Recession Era provides comprehensive guidance grounded in reality for today's economic decision-makers.

The Causes of Structural Unemployment

The Causes of Structural Unemployment
Author: Thomas Janoski
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Total Pages: 190
Release: 2014-06-27
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0745684130

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There is a specter haunting advanced industrial countries: structural unemployment. Recent years have seen growing concern over declining jobs, and though corporate profits have picked up after the Great Recession of 2008, jobs have not. It is possible that “jobless recoveries” could become a permanent feature of Western economies. This illuminating book focuses on the employment futures of advanced industrial countries, providing readers with the sociological imagination to appreciate the bigger picture of where workers fit in the new international division of labor. The authors piece together a puzzle that reveals deep structural forces underlying unemployment: skills mismatches caused by a shift from manufacturing to service jobs; increased offshoring in search of lower wages; the rise of advanced communication and automated technologies; and the growing financialization of the global economy that aggravates all of these factors. Weaving together varied literatures and data, the authors also consider what actions and policy initiatives societies might take to alleviate these threats. Addressing a problem that should be front and center for political economists and policymakers, this book will be illuminating reading for students of the sociology of work, labor studies, inequality, and economic sociology.

Hysteresis and Business Cycles

Hysteresis and Business Cycles
Author: Ms.Valerie Cerra
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 50
Release: 2020-05-29
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1513536990

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Traditionally, economic growth and business cycles have been treated independently. However, the dependence of GDP levels on its history of shocks, what economists refer to as “hysteresis,” argues for unifying the analysis of growth and cycles. In this paper, we review the recent empirical and theoretical literature that motivate this paradigm shift. The renewed interest in hysteresis has been sparked by the persistence of the Global Financial Crisis and fears of a slow recovery from the Covid-19 crisis. The findings of the recent literature have far-reaching conceptual and policy implications. In recessions, monetary and fiscal policies need to be more active to avoid the permanent scars of a downturn. And in good times, running a high-pressure economy could have permanent positive effects.

Output and Unemployment Dynamics during the Great Recession

Output and Unemployment Dynamics during the Great Recession
Author: Francis Vitek
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 22
Release: 2010-08-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1455202193

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This paper analyzes the sources of output and unemployment dynamics in the world economy during the Great Recession. This analysis is based on a panel unobserved components model of the world economy, disaggregated into its fifteen largest national economies. We find that excess supply pressure was primarily transmitted from the output market to the labor market by economy specific combinations of negative domestic or foreign output demand shocks, mitigated to varying degrees by countercyclical labor market policies or institutions.

Labor Markets and Business Cycles

Labor Markets and Business Cycles
Author: Robert Shimer
Publisher: Princeton University Press
Total Pages: 189
Release: 2010-04-12
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1400835232

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Labor Markets and Business Cycles integrates search and matching theory with the neoclassical growth model to better understand labor market outcomes. Robert Shimer shows analytically and quantitatively that rigid wages are important for explaining the volatile behavior of the unemployment rate in business cycles. The book focuses on the labor wedge that arises when the marginal rate of substitution between consumption and leisure does not equal the marginal product of labor. According to competitive models of the labor market, the labor wedge should be constant and equal to the labor income tax rate. But in U.S. data, the wedge is strongly countercyclical, making it seem as if recessions are periods when workers are dissuaded from working and firms are dissuaded from hiring because of an increase in the labor income tax rate. When job searches are time consuming and wages are flexible, search frictions--the cost of a job search--act like labor adjustment costs, further exacerbating inconsistencies between the competitive model and data. The book shows that wage rigidities can reconcile the search model with the data, providing a quantitatively more accurate depiction of labor markets, consumption, and investment dynamics. Developing detailed search and matching models, Labor Markets and Business Cycles will be the main reference for those interested in the intersection of labor market dynamics and business cycle research.

Recession

Recession
Author: Fouad Sabry
Publisher: One Billion Knowledgeable
Total Pages: 473
Release: 2024-01-10
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN:

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What is Recession A contraction of the business cycle that takes place when there is a broad reduction in economic activity is referred to as a recession in the field of economic sciences. When there is a significant decrease in expenditure across the board, recessions are likely to emerge. A variety of occurrences, including but not limited to a financial crisis, an external trade shock, an unfavorable supply shock, the collapse of an economic bubble, or a large-scale natural or manmade calamity, have the potential to set this off. How you will benefit (I) Insights, and validations about the following topics: Chapter 1: Recession Chapter 2: Reaganomics Chapter 3: Economy of the United States Chapter 4: Economic depression Chapter 5: Business cycle Chapter 6: Deficit spending Chapter 7: Stagflation Chapter 8: Austerity Chapter 9: Early 1990s recession Chapter 10: National Bureau of Economic Research Chapter 11: Household debt Chapter 12: Economic stagnation Chapter 13: Deleveraging Chapter 14: Great Recession Chapter 15: Depression of 1920-1921 Chapter 16: Unemployment in the United States Chapter 17: Great Recession in the United States Chapter 18: Political debates about the United States federal budget Chapter 19: Abenomics Chapter 20: Balance sheet recession Chapter 21: Causes of unemployment in the United States (II) Answering the public top questions about recession. (III) Real world examples for the usage of recession in many fields. Who this book is for Professionals, undergraduate and graduate students, enthusiasts, hobbyists, and those who want to go beyond basic knowledge or information for any kind of recession.