Strategic Foresight for Multilateral Policy

Strategic Foresight for Multilateral Policy
Author: Lars Brozus
Publisher:
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2019
Genre:
ISBN:

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Zusammenfassung: Increasingly, states are openly and assertively pursuing their national interests in international politics. The US, for instance, is revoking important international agreements on disarmament, trade and climate change. Other countries with a claim to global power, such as China and Russia, are pursuing an aggressive territorial policy. The withdrawal of the UK from the European Union (EU) would mean the loss of an important partner, undermining its ability to implement a strategic and self-confident course of action at the international level. This is all the more worrying since any erosion of the rules-based international order requires a forward-looking and effective policy for shaping the future. Every time a binding international agreement is called into question or revoked, the threshold for uncoordinated unilateral action is lowered. Unexpected crises and conflicts might therefore occur more frequently in the future. Consequently, governments wanting to promote multilateralism should invest in joint strategic foresight. A multiperspective approach appears to be promising for identifying situations in which coordinated action with like-minded partners offers opportunities to proactively shape international affairs

2021 Strategic Foresight Report

2021 Strategic Foresight Report
Author:
Publisher:
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2021
Genre:
ISBN: 9789276411390

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The European Union is charting a strategic path to becoming the first climate-neutral continent by 2050, grasping the opportunities of the digital age, building an economy that works for people, promoting the European way of life, strengthening our unique brand of responsible global leadership, and nurturing, protecting and strengthening our democracy. Openness, as well as rules-based international and multilateral cooperation, are strategic choices. They stimulate prosperity, fairness, stability, competitiveness and dynamism within the EU and beyond. The history of the European project demonstrates the benefits of well-managed interdependence and open strategic autonomy based on shared values, cohesion, strong multilateral governance and rules-based cooperation. The pandemic has only strengthened the case for international cooperation to address global challenges. This 2021 Strategic Foresight Report presents a forward-looking and multi-disciplinary perspective on the EU's capacity and freedom to act in the coming decades. Based on an expertled, cross-sectoral foresight process, it presents global trends, uncertainties and choices that will shape Europe's future. The report provides the context for possible policy responses. It builds on the 2020 Strategic Foresight Report, which introduced resilience as a new compass for EU policymaking.

Strategic Foresight at the International Monetary Fund

Strategic Foresight at the International Monetary Fund
Author: Mr. Alberto Behar
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 41
Release: 2021-12-22
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1513593862

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This note explains the value of strategic foresight and provides implementation advice based on the IMF’s experience with scenario planning and policy gaming. Section II provides an overview of strategic foresight and some of its tools. Scenario planning and policy gaming have been the Fund’s main foresight techniques so far, though other tools have been complementary. Accordingly, section III focuses on the scenario planning by illustrating applications before detailing the methods we have been using, while section IV describes policy gaming including the matrix policy gaming approach with which we have experimented so far. Section V summarizes the key points. In so doing, the note extends an invitation to those in the economics and finance fields (e.g., researchers, policymakers) to incorporate strategic foresight in their analysis and decision making.

Futures Thinking in Asia and the Pacific

Futures Thinking in Asia and the Pacific
Author: Asian Development Bank
Publisher: Asian Development Bank
Total Pages: 201
Release: 2020-04-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9292621823

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Futures thinking and foresight is a powerful planning approach that can help Asia and the Pacific countries meet economic, political, social, and environmental and climate change challenges. This publication shows how the Asian Development Bank (ADB) piloted this approach to understand entry points to support transformational change in the region. It compiles lessons from an ADB initiative to apply futures and foresight tools in Armenia, Cambodia, Kazakhstan, Mongolia, the People's Republic of China, the Philippines, and Timor-Leste. Futures terminology is introduced as are specific tools such as emerging issues analysis, scenario planning, and backcasting. It also describes how futures and foresight tools were applied in the countries.

Global Trends 2040

Global Trends 2040
Author: National Intelligence Council
Publisher: Cosimo Reports
Total Pages: 158
Release: 2021-03
Genre:
ISBN: 9781646794973

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"The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic marks the most significant, singular global disruption since World War II, with health, economic, political, and security implications that will ripple for years to come." -Global Trends 2040 (2021) Global Trends 2040-A More Contested World (2021), released by the US National Intelligence Council, is the latest report in its series of reports starting in 1997 about megatrends and the world's future. This report, strongly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, paints a bleak picture of the future and describes a contested, fragmented and turbulent world. It specifically discusses the four main trends that will shape tomorrow's world: - Demographics-by 2040, 1.4 billion people will be added mostly in Africa and South Asia. - Economics-increased government debt and concentrated economic power will escalate problems for the poor and middleclass. - Climate-a hotter world will increase water, food, and health insecurity. - Technology-the emergence of new technologies could both solve and cause problems for human life. Students of trends, policymakers, entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades, will find this report, with colored graphs, essential reading.

World Public Sector Report 2023

World Public Sector Report 2023
Author: Department of Economic and Social Affairs
Publisher: Stylus Publishing, LLC
Total Pages: 395
Release: 2023-10-25
Genre: Political Science
ISBN: 9213585683

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This report examines the role that national institutional and governance innovations and changes that emerged during the COVID-19 pandemic can play in advancing progress towards the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. The consequences of the pandemic threaten to derail progress and make the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) more difficult to achieve. Yet the pandemic also sparked rapid innovation in government institutions and public administration that could be capitalized on. Against this backdrop, the report focuses on how governments can reshape their relationship with people and other actors to enhance trust and promote the changes required for more sustainable and peaceful societies. How they can assess competing priorities and address difficult policy trade-offs that have emerged since 2020. And what assets and innovations they can mobilize to transform the public sector and achieve the SDGs. The e-book for this publication has been converted into an accessible format for the visually impaired and people with print reading disabilities. It is fully compatible with leading screen-reader technologies such as JAWS and NVDA.

The Evolution of Strategic Foresight

The Evolution of Strategic Foresight
Author: Tuomo Kuosa
Publisher: Routledge
Total Pages: 220
Release: 2016-03-16
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1317032497

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Embracing the theory and practice of strategic foresight and illuminating how different schools of thought regard its role in policy making, Tuomo Kuosa describes how something not traditionally considered an independent discipline, is steadily becoming one. In The Evolution of Strategic Foresight he explains how the practice of strategic foresight has long been closely associated with the military and politics. Linking strategic thinking more broadly to futurology, however, it is quite new. Since strategic foresight refers to the practice of generating analyses of alternative futures and strategies, based on available intelligence and foreknowledge, the practice can and should be applied to companies, business sectors, national and trans-national agencies of all descriptions, and to all aspects of public policy making. The author explains its practice in terms of structure, process, and knowledge domains, and examines its methodologies and systems, along with how strategic foresight can be used to produce better knowledge and be more effectively linked to policy making. Using examples from 30 different countries and with access to interviews and workshops involving key experts, The Evolution of Strategic Foresight will be valuable to scholars, educators, students engaged in strategy and future studies, long-range, public policy and urban planners, analysts; risk assessment experts, and consultants, managers and decision makers in many organisations, public and private.

Strategic Analysis in Support of International Policy Making

Strategic Analysis in Support of International Policy Making
Author: Thomas Juneau
Publisher: Rowman & Littlefield
Total Pages: 299
Release: 2017-02-02
Genre: Political Science
ISBN: 1442257636

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The book aims to improve our understanding of what it means to create high-quality analytical products by focusing on the concept of relevance for policy-makers. Despite variations in context, strategic analysts in different sectors (in both intelligence and non-intelligence government organizations, private consultancies, think tanks, and academia) face similar problems in identifying the needs of their clients and setting up organizations with the mandates, structures, and personnel necessary to address those needs. The objective is therefore to identify these common challenges, compare solutions, and share lessons learned. To do so, broader thematic reflections on strategic analysis are combined with innovative case studies of how organizations have worked to successfully produce relevant analysis. The first section explores challenges to achieving relevance at the level of the analyst, while the remainder of the book analyses cases at the level of organizations.

OECD Public Governance Reviews Anticipatory Innovation Governance Model in Finland Towards a New Way of Governing

OECD Public Governance Reviews Anticipatory Innovation Governance Model in Finland Towards a New Way of Governing
Author: OECD
Publisher: OECD Publishing
Total Pages: 351
Release: 2022-10-06
Genre:
ISBN: 9264491414

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This report examined how Finland has been incorporating anticipatory functions within its governance system to deal with complex and future challenges in a systemic way. The report applies a new model of anticipatory innovation governance (AIG), developed by the OECD, addressing a considerable gap in prior knowledge and guidance on how governments prepare for unknowable futures.