Stochastic Ocean Forecasting with the Dynamically Orthogonal Primitive Equations

Stochastic Ocean Forecasting with the Dynamically Orthogonal Primitive Equations
Author: Kyprianos Agioub Gkirgkis
Publisher:
Total Pages: 255
Release: 2021
Genre:
ISBN:

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The present work focuses on applying the Dynamically Orthogonal Primitive Equations (DO-PE) for realistic high-resolution stochastic ocean forecasting in regions with complex ocean dynamics. In the first part, we identify and test a streamlined process to create multi-region initial conditions for the DO-PE framework, starting from temporally and spatially sparse historical data. The process presented allows us to start from a relatively small but relevant set of measured temperature and salinity historical vertical profiles (on the order of hundreds) and to generate a massive set of initial conditions (on the order of millions) in a stochastic subspace, while still ensuring that the initial statistics respect the physical processes, modeled complex dynamics, and uncertain initial conditions of the examined domain. To illustrate the methodology, two practical examples-one in the Gulf of Mexico and another in the Alboran Sea--are provided, along with a review of the ocean dynamics for each region. In the second part, we present a case study of three massive stochastic DO-PE forecasts, corresponding to ensembles of one million members, in the Gulf of Mexico region. We examine the effect of adding more dynamic DO modes (i.e., stochastic dimensions) and show that it tends to statistical convergence along with an enhancement of the uncertainty captured by the DO forecast realizations, both by increasing the variance of already existing features as well as by adding new uncertain features. We also use this case study to validate the DO-PE methodology for realistic high-resolution probabilistic ocean forecasting. We show good accuracy against equivalent deterministic simulations, starting from the same initial conditions and simulated with the same assumptions, setup, and original ocean model equations. Importantly, by comparing the reduced-order realizations against their deterministic counterparts, we show that the errors due to the DO subspace truncation are much smaller and growing slower than the fields themselves are evolving in time, both in the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) sense as well as in the 3D multivariate ocean field sense. Based on these observations, we conclude that the DO-PE realizations closely match their full-order equivalents, thus enabling massive forecast ensembles with practically low numerical errors at a tractable computational cost.

Probabilistic Regional Ocean Predictions

Probabilistic Regional Ocean Predictions
Author: Deepak Narayanan Subramani
Publisher:
Total Pages: 268
Release: 2018
Genre:
ISBN:

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The coastal ocean is a prime example of multiscale nonlinear fluid dynamics. Ocean fields in such regions are complex, with multiple spatial and temporal scales and nonstationary heterogeneous statistics. Due to the limited measurements, there are multiple sources of uncertainties, including the initial conditions, boundary conditions, forcing, parameters, and even the model parameterizations and equations themselves. To reduce uncertainties and allow long-duration measurements, the energy consumption of ocean observing platforms need to be optimized. Predicting the distributions of reachable regions, time-optimal paths, and risk-optimal paths in uncertain, strong and dynamic flows is also essential for their optimal and safe operations. Motivated by the above needs, the objectives of this thesis are to develop and apply the theory, schemes, and computational systems for: (i) Dynamically Orthogonal ocean primitive-equations with a nonlinear free-surface, in order to quantify uncertainties and predict probabilities for four-dimensional (time and 3-d in space) coastal ocean states, respecting their nonlinear governing equations and non-Gaussian statistics; (ii) Stochastic Dynamically Orthogonal level-set optimization to rigorously incorporate realistic ocean flow forecasts and plan energy-optimal paths of autonomous agents in coastal regions; (iii) Probabilistic predictions of reachability, time-optimal paths and risk-optimal paths in uncertain, strong and dynamic flows. For the first objective, we further develop and implement our Dynamically Orthogonal (DO) numerical schemes for idealized and realistic ocean primitive equations with a nonlinear free-surface. The theoretical extensions necessary for the free-surface are completed. DO schemes are researched and DO terms, functions, and operations are implemented, focusing on: state variable choices; DO norms; DO condition for flows with a dynamic free-surface; diagnostic DO equations for pressure, barotropic velocities and density terms; non-polynomial nonlinearities; semi-implicit time-stepping schemes; and re-orthonormalization consistent with leap-frog time marching. We apply the new DO schemes, as well as their theoretical extensions and efficient serial implementation to forecast idealized-to-realistic stochastic coastal ocean dynamics. For the realistic simulations, probabilistic predictions for the Middle Atlantic Bight region, Northwest Atlantic, and northern Indian ocean are showcased. For the second objective, we integrate data-driven ocean modeling with our stochastic DO level-set optimization to compute and study energy-optimal paths, speeds, and headings for ocean vehicles in the Middle Atlantic Bight region. We compute the energy-optimal paths from among exact time-optimal paths. For ocean currents, we utilize a data-assimilative multiscale re-analysis, combining observations with implicit two-way nested multi-resolution primitive-equation simulations of the tidal-to-mesoscale dynamics in the region. We solve the reduced-order stochastic DO level-set partial differential equations (PDEs) to compute the joint probability of minimum arrival-time, vehicle-speed time-series, and total energy utilized. For each arrival time, we then select the vehicle-speed time-series that minimize the total energy utilization from the marginal probability of vehicle-speed and total energy. The corresponding energy-optimal path and headings be obtained through a particle backtracking equation. For the missions considered, we analyze the effects of the regional tidal currents, strong wind events, coastal jets, shelfbreak front, and other local circulations on the energy-optimal paths. For the third objective, we develop and apply stochastic level-set PDEs that govern the stochastic time-optimal reachability fronts and paths for vehicles in uncertain, strong, and dynamic flow fields. To solve these equations efficiently, we again employ their dynamically orthogonal reduced-order projections. We develop the theory and schemes for risk-optimal planning by combining decision theory with our stochastic time-optimal planning equations. The risk-optimal planning proceeds in three steps: (i) obtain predictions of the probability distribution of environmental flows, (ii) obtain predictions of the distribution of exact time-optimal paths for the forecast flow distribution, and (iii) compute and minimize the risk of following these uncertain time-optimal paths. We utilize the new equations to complete stochastic reachability, time-optimal and risk-optimal path planning in varied stochastic quasi-geostrophic flows. The effects of the flow uncertainty on the reachability fronts and time-optimal paths is explained. The risks of following each exact time-optimal path is evaluated and risk-optimal paths are computed for different risk tolerance measures. Key properties of the risk-optimal planning are finally discussed. Theoretically, the present methodologies are PDE-based and compute stochastic ocean fields, and optimal path predictions without heuristics. Computationally, they are several orders of magnitude faster than direct Monte Carlo. Such technologies have several commercial and societal applications. Specifically, the probabilistic ocean predictions can be input to a technical decision aide for a sustainable fisheries co-management program in India, which has the potential to provide environment friendly livelihoods to millions of marginal fishermen. The risk-optimal path planning equations can be employed in real-time for efficient ship routing to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and save operational costs.

Stochastic Modelling in Physical Oceanography

Stochastic Modelling in Physical Oceanography
Author: Robert Adler
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 473
Release: 2012-12-06
Genre: Mathematics
ISBN: 1461224306

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The study of the ocean is almost as old as the history of mankind itself. When the first seafarers set out in their primitive ships they had to understand, as best they could, tides and currents, eddies and vortices, for lack of understanding often led to loss of live. These primitive oceanographers were, of course, primarily statisticians. They collected what empirical data they could, and passed it down, ini tially by word of mouth, to their descendants. Data collection continued throughout the millenia, and although data bases became larger, more re liable, and better codified, it was not really until surprisingly recently that mankind began to try to understand the physics behind these data, and, shortly afterwards, to attempt to model it. The basic modelling tool of physical oceanography is, today, the partial differential equation. Somehow, we all 'know" that if only we could find the right set of equations, with the right initial and boundary conditions, then we could solve the mysteries of ocean dynamics once and for all.

Ocean Forecasting

Ocean Forecasting
Author: Nadia Pinardi
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 502
Release: 2013-06-29
Genre: Science
ISBN: 3662226480

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The Advanced Study Courses in the field of Marine Science and Technology were part of the training programme developed from 1989 until 1999 within MAST, the Marine Science and Technology Programme of the European Union. They were related to the core topics of MAST Programme, marine systems research, extreme marine environments, regional Sea research, coastal systems research and engineering, and marine technology. The main objectives of these study courses were to further advance education in topics at the forefront of scien tific and technological development in Europe, and to improve the communication between students and experienced scientists on a European and international level. Over the years the Programme sponsored around 30 Advanced Study Courses. They took place in ten different member states of the European Union and their contribution in the formation of a European scientific community was significant. They also encouraged exchanges and contacts with several countries around the world such as United States, the third Mediterranean countries and others. The Course on Ocean Forecasting was one ofthe most successful with regard to its con tent, number of applications for participation and students satisfaction. When considering the need for the Advanced Study Course on Ocean Forecast ing, it is important to remember that the Oceans and Seas have always played a central role throughout the history of mankind. This is seen from the times of the ancient civilizations ofEgypt and Greece with the Phoenician traders, to the Viking voyages of exploration and discovery in medieval times.

Introduction to Ocean Circulation and Modeling

Introduction to Ocean Circulation and Modeling
Author: Avijit Gangopadhyay
Publisher: CRC Press
Total Pages: 528
Release: 2022-02-14
Genre: Science
ISBN: 1000539059

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Introduction to Ocean Circulation and Modeling provide basics for physical oceanography covering ocean properties, ocean circulations and their modeling. First part of the book explains concepts of oceanic circulation, geostrophy, Ekman, Sverdrup dynamics, Stommel and Munk problems, two-layer dynamics, stratification, thermal and salt diffusion, vorticity/instability, and so forth. Second part highlights basic implementation framework for ocean models, discussion of different models, and their unique differences from the common framework with basin-scale modeling, regional modeling, and interdisciplinary modeling at different space and time scales. Features: Covers ocean properties, ocean circulations and their modeling. Explains the centrality of a rotating earth and its implications for ocean and atmosphere in a simple manner. Provides basic facts of ocean dynamics. Illustrative diagrams for clear understanding of key concepts. Outlines interdisciplinary and complex models for societal applications. The book aims at Senior Undergraduate Students, Graduate Students and Researchers in Ocean Science and Engineering, Ocean Technology, Physical Oceanography, Ocean Circulation, Ocean Modeling, Dynamical Oceanography and Earth Science.

Springer Handbook of Ocean Engineering

Springer Handbook of Ocean Engineering
Author: Manhar R. Dhanak
Publisher: Springer
Total Pages: 1344
Release: 2016-07-23
Genre: Technology & Engineering
ISBN: 3319166492

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This handbook is the definitive reference for the interdisciplinary field that is ocean engineering. It integrates the coverage of fundamental and applied material and encompasses a diverse spectrum of systems, concepts and operations in the maritime environment, as well as providing a comprehensive update on contemporary, leading-edge ocean technologies. Coverage includes an overview on the fundamentals of ocean science, ocean signals and instrumentation, coastal structures, developments in ocean energy technologies and ocean vehicles and automation. It aims at practitioners in a range of offshore industries and naval establishments as well as academic researchers and graduate students in ocean, coastal, offshore and marine engineering and naval architecture. The Springer Handbook of Ocean Engineering is organized in five parts: Part A: Fundamentals, Part B: Autonomous Ocean Vehicles, Subsystems and Control, Part C: Coastal Design, Part D: Offshore Technologies, Part E: Energy Conversion

Stochastically Excited Nonlinear Ocean Structures

Stochastically Excited Nonlinear Ocean Structures
Author: Michael F. Shlesinger
Publisher: World Scientific
Total Pages: 340
Release: 1998
Genre: Technology & Engineering
ISBN: 9789810233921

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Ocean structures, including ships, boats, piers, docks, rigs and platforms, are subject to fair weather wind and waves, as well as violent storms. A scientific analysis of these structures, under varying conditions, requires a mix of civil engineering, physics and applied mathematics. Chapters by experts in these fields are presented which explore the nonlinear responses of ocean structures to stochastic forcing. Theoretical methods calculate aspects of time, frequency and phase space responses. Probabilities governed by stochastic differential equations arc investigated directly or through moment correlations, such as power spectra. Calculations can also involve level crossing statistics and first passage times. Tiffs book will help scientists study stochastic nonlinear equations and help engineers design for short term survivability of structures in storms and long life in the face of everyday fatigue.

Synoptic and Dynamic Climatology

Synoptic and Dynamic Climatology
Author: Roger G. Barry
Publisher: Routledge
Total Pages: 633
Release: 2013-03-07
Genre: Science
ISBN: 1134969740

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Synoptic and Dynamic Climatology provides the first comprehensive account of the dynamical behaviour and mechanisms of the global climate system and its components, together with a modern survey of synoptic-scale weather systems in the tropics and extratropics, and of the methods and applications of synoptic climate classification. It is unrivalled in the scope and detail of its contents. The work is thoroughly up to date, with extensive bibliographies by chapter. It is illustrated with nearly 300 figures and plates. *Part 1 provides an introduction to the global climate system and the space-time scales of weather and climate processes, followed by a chapter on climate data and their analysis *Part 2 describes and explains the characteristics of the general circulation of the global atmosphere and includes the nature and causes of global teleconnection patterns *Part 3 discusses synoptic weather systems in the extratropics and tropics and satellite-based climatologies of synoptic features. It also describes the applications of synoptic climatology and summarises current climatic research and its directions.

Ocean Weather Forecasting

Ocean Weather Forecasting
Author: Eric P. Chassignet
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 573
Release: 2006-07-08
Genre: Science
ISBN: 1402040288

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This volume covers a wide range of topics and summarizes our present knowledge in ocean modeling, ocean observing systems, and data assimilation. The Global Ocean Data Assimilation Experiment (GODAE) provides a framework for these efforts: a global system of observations, communications, modeling, and assimilation that will deliver regular, comprehensive information on the state of the oceans, engendering wide utility and availability for maximum benefit to the community.

Stochastic Modeling of Ocean Dynamics

Stochastic Modeling of Ocean Dynamics
Author: Igorʹ Evgenʹevich Timchenko
Publisher: Routledge
Total Pages: 328
Release: 1984
Genre: Science
ISBN:

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