Building Models for Marketing Decisions

Building Models for Marketing Decisions
Author: Peter S.H. Leeflang
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 642
Release: 2013-06-29
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 146154050X

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This book is about marketing models and the process of model building. Our primary focus is on models that can be used by managers to support marketing decisions. It has long been known that simple models usually outperform judgments in predicting outcomes in a wide variety of contexts. For example, models of judgments tend to provide better forecasts of the outcomes than the judgments themselves (because the model eliminates the noise in judgments). And since judgments never fully reflect the complexities of the many forces that influence outcomes, it is easy to see why models of actual outcomes should be very attractive to (marketing) decision makers. Thus, appropriately constructed models can provide insights about structural relations between marketing variables. Since models explicate the relations, both the process of model building and the model that ultimately results can improve the quality of marketing decisions. Managers often use rules of thumb for decisions. For example, a brand manager will have defined a specific set of alternative brands as the competitive set within a product category. Usually this set is based on perceived similarities in brand characteristics, advertising messages, etc. If a new marketing initiative occurs for one of the other brands, the brand manager will have a strong inclination to react. The reaction is partly based on the manager's desire to maintain some competitive parity in the mar keting variables.

An Introduction to Stochastic Modeling

An Introduction to Stochastic Modeling
Author: Howard M. Taylor
Publisher: Academic Press
Total Pages: 410
Release: 2014-05-10
Genre: Mathematics
ISBN: 1483269272

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An Introduction to Stochastic Modeling provides information pertinent to the standard concepts and methods of stochastic modeling. This book presents the rich diversity of applications of stochastic processes in the sciences. Organized into nine chapters, this book begins with an overview of diverse types of stochastic models, which predicts a set of possible outcomes weighed by their likelihoods or probabilities. This text then provides exercises in the applications of simple stochastic analysis to appropriate problems. Other chapters consider the study of general functions of independent, identically distributed, nonnegative random variables representing the successive intervals between renewals. This book discusses as well the numerous examples of Markov branching processes that arise naturally in various scientific disciplines. The final chapter deals with queueing models, which aid the design process by predicting system performance. This book is a valuable resource for students of engineering and management science. Engineers will also find this book useful.

Stochastic Models of Buying Behavior

Stochastic Models of Buying Behavior
Author: William F. Massy
Publisher: MIT Press (MA)
Total Pages: 488
Release: 1970
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN:

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Approaches to stochastic modeling; Estimating and testing stochastic models; Brand-choice models; Zero-order models; Two state markov models; Linear learning models for brand choice; A probability diffusion model; Application of the probability diffusion model; Purchase incidence models; Models for purchase timing and market penetration; A stochastic model for monitoring new product adoption; Parameter estimations and some emperical results for STEAM; Extension to STEAM.

Stochastic Models for Learning

Stochastic Models for Learning
Author: Robert R. Bush
Publisher: Martino Fine Books
Total Pages: 382
Release: 2012-07-01
Genre: Mathematics
ISBN: 9781614273196

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2012 Reprint of 1955 Edition. Exact facsimile of the original edition, not reproduced with Optical Recognition Software. A stochastic process is one in which the probabilities of a set of events keep changing with time. Bush and Mosteller make use of the mathematical techniques developed for the study of such processes in building a theory of learning and then apply the theory to explain the results of several learning experiments. Contents: Part I: The mathematical system and the general model -- 1. The basic model -- 2. Stimulus sampling and conditioning -- 3. Sequences of events -- 4. Distributions of response probabilities -- 5. The equal alpha condition -- 6. Approximate methods -- 7. Operators with limits zero and unity -- 8. Commuting operators -- Part II: Applications -- 9. Identification and estimation -- 10. Free-recall verbal learning -- 11. Avoidance training -- 12. An experiment on imitation -- 13. Symmetric choice problems -- 14. Runway experiments -- 15. Evaluations.

Stochastic Modeling

Stochastic Modeling
Author: Nicolas Lanchier
Publisher: Springer
Total Pages: 305
Release: 2017-01-27
Genre: Mathematics
ISBN: 3319500384

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Three coherent parts form the material covered in this text, portions of which have not been widely covered in traditional textbooks. In this coverage the reader is quickly introduced to several different topics enriched with 175 exercises which focus on real-world problems. Exercises range from the classics of probability theory to more exotic research-oriented problems based on numerical simulations. Intended for graduate students in mathematics and applied sciences, the text provides the tools and training needed to write and use programs for research purposes. The first part of the text begins with a brief review of measure theory and revisits the main concepts of probability theory, from random variables to the standard limit theorems. The second part covers traditional material on stochastic processes, including martingales, discrete-time Markov chains, Poisson processes, and continuous-time Markov chains. The theory developed is illustrated by a variety of examples surrounding applications such as the gambler’s ruin chain, branching processes, symmetric random walks, and queueing systems. The third, more research-oriented part of the text, discusses special stochastic processes of interest in physics, biology, and sociology. Additional emphasis is placed on minimal models that have been used historically to develop new mathematical techniques in the field of stochastic processes: the logistic growth process, the Wright –Fisher model, Kingman’s coalescent, percolation models, the contact process, and the voter model. Further treatment of the material explains how these special processes are connected to each other from a modeling perspective as well as their simulation capabilities in C and MatlabTM.

Introduction to Stochastic Models

Introduction to Stochastic Models
Author: Roe Goodman
Publisher: Courier Corporation
Total Pages: 370
Release: 2006-01-01
Genre: Mathematics
ISBN: 0486450376

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Newly revised by the author, this undergraduate-level text introduces the mathematical theory of probability and stochastic processes. Using both computer simulations and mathematical models of random events, it comprises numerous applications to the physical and biological sciences, engineering, and computer science. Subjects include sample spaces, probabilities distributions and expectations of random variables, conditional expectations, Markov chains, and the Poisson process. Additional topics encompass continuous-time stochastic processes, birth and death processes, steady-state probabilities, general queuing systems, and renewal processes. Each section features worked examples, and exercises appear at the end of each chapter, with numerical solutions at the back of the book. Suggestions for further reading in stochastic processes, simulation, and various applications also appear at the end.

Stochastic Modeling

Stochastic Modeling
Author: Barry L. Nelson
Publisher: Courier Corporation
Total Pages: 338
Release: 2012-10-11
Genre: Mathematics
ISBN: 0486139948

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Coherent introduction to techniques also offers a guide to the mathematical, numerical, and simulation tools of systems analysis. Includes formulation of models, analysis, and interpretation of results. 1995 edition.

Optimization of Stochastic Models

Optimization of Stochastic Models
Author: Georg Ch. Pflug
Publisher: Springer
Total Pages: 382
Release: 1997-10-14
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9781461286318

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Stochastic models are everywhere. In manufacturing, queuing models are used for modeling production processes, realistic inventory models are stochastic in nature. Stochastic models are considered in transportation and communication. Marketing models use stochastic descriptions of the demands and buyer's behaviors. In finance, market prices and exchange rates are assumed to be certain stochastic processes, and insurance claims appear at random times with random amounts. To each decision problem, a cost function is associated. Costs may be direct or indirect, like loss of time, quality deterioration, loss in production or dissatisfaction of customers. In decision making under uncertainty, the goal is to minimize the expected costs. However, in practically all realistic models, the calculation of the expected costs is impossible due to the model complexity. Simulation is the only practicable way of getting insight into such models. Thus, the problem of optimal decisions can be seen as getting simulation and optimization effectively combined. The field is quite new and yet the number of publications is enormous. This book does not even try to touch all work done in this area. Instead, many concepts are presented and treated with mathematical rigor and necessary conditions for the correctness of various approaches are stated. Optimization of Stochastic Models: The Interface Between Simulation and Optimization is suitable as a text for a graduate level course on Stochastic Models or as a secondary text for a graduate level course in Operations Research.

Stochastic Modelling of Social Processes

Stochastic Modelling of Social Processes
Author: Andreas Diekmann
Publisher: Academic Press
Total Pages: 352
Release: 2014-05-10
Genre: Mathematics
ISBN: 1483266567

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Stochastic Modelling of Social Processes provides information pertinent to the development in the field of stochastic modeling and its applications in the social sciences. This book demonstrates that stochastic models can fulfill the goals of explanation and prediction. Organized into nine chapters, this book begins with an overview of stochastic models that fulfill normative, predictive, and structural–analytic roles with the aid of the theory of probability. This text then examines the study of labor market structures using analysis of job and career mobility, which is one of the approaches taken by sociologists in research on the labor market. Other chapters consider the characteristic trends and patterns from data on divorces. This book discusses as well the two approaches of stochastic modeling of social processes, namely competing risk models and semi-Markov processes. The final chapter deals with the practical application of regression models of survival data. This book is a valuable resource for social scientists and statisticians.

An Introduction to Stochastic Modeling

An Introduction to Stochastic Modeling
Author: Howard M. Taylor
Publisher: Academic Press
Total Pages: 579
Release: 2014-05-10
Genre: Mathematics
ISBN: 1483220443

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An Introduction to Stochastic Modeling, Revised Edition provides information pertinent to the standard concepts and methods of stochastic modeling. This book presents the rich diversity of applications of stochastic processes in the sciences. Organized into nine chapters, this book begins with an overview of diverse types of stochastic models, which predicts a set of possible outcomes weighed by their likelihoods or probabilities. This text then provides exercises in the applications of simple stochastic analysis to appropriate problems. Other chapters consider the study of general functions of independent, identically distributed, nonnegative random variables representing the successive intervals between renewals. This book discusses as well the numerous examples of Markov branching processes that arise naturally in various scientific disciplines. The final chapter deals with queueing models, which aid the design process by predicting system performance. This book is a valuable resource for students of engineering and management science. Engineers will also find this book useful.