Statistically Sound Machine Learning for Algorithmic Trading of Financial Instruments

Statistically Sound Machine Learning for Algorithmic Trading of Financial Instruments
Author: David Aronson
Publisher: Createspace Independent Publishing Platform
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2013
Genre: Algorithmus
ISBN: 9781489507716

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This book serves two purposes. First, it teaches the importance of using sophisticated yet accessible statistical methods to evaluate a trading system before it is put to real-world use. In order to accommodate readers having limited mathematical background, these techniques are illustrated with step-by-step examples using actual market data, and all examples are explained in plain language. Second, this book shows how the free program TSSB (Trading System Synthesis & Boosting) can be used to develop and test trading systems. The machine learning and statistical algorithms available in TSSB go far beyond those available in other off-the-shelf development software. Intelligent use of these state-of-the-art techniques greatly improves the likelihood of obtaining a trading system whose impressive backtest results continue when the system is put to use in a trading account. Among other things, this book will teach the reader how to: Estimate future performance with rigorous algorithms Evaluate the influence of good luck in backtests Detect overfitting before deploying your system Estimate performance bias due to model fitting and selection of seemingly superior systems Use state-of-the-art ensembles of models to form consensus trade decisions Build optimal portfolios of trading systems and rigorously test their expected performance Search thousands of markets to find subsets that are especially predictable Create trading systems that specialize in specific market regimes such as trending/flat or high/low volatility More information on the TSSB program can be found at TSSBsoftware dot com.

Hands-On Machine Learning for Algorithmic Trading

Hands-On Machine Learning for Algorithmic Trading
Author: Stefan Jansen
Publisher: Packt Publishing Ltd
Total Pages: 668
Release: 2018-12-31
Genre: Computers
ISBN: 1789342716

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Explore effective trading strategies in real-world markets using NumPy, spaCy, pandas, scikit-learn, and Keras Key FeaturesImplement machine learning algorithms to build, train, and validate algorithmic modelsCreate your own algorithmic design process to apply probabilistic machine learning approaches to trading decisionsDevelop neural networks for algorithmic trading to perform time series forecasting and smart analyticsBook Description The explosive growth of digital data has boosted the demand for expertise in trading strategies that use machine learning (ML). This book enables you to use a broad range of supervised and unsupervised algorithms to extract signals from a wide variety of data sources and create powerful investment strategies. This book shows how to access market, fundamental, and alternative data via API or web scraping and offers a framework to evaluate alternative data. You'll practice the ML workflow from model design, loss metric definition, and parameter tuning to performance evaluation in a time series context. You will understand ML algorithms such as Bayesian and ensemble methods and manifold learning, and will know how to train and tune these models using pandas, statsmodels, sklearn, PyMC3, xgboost, lightgbm, and catboost. This book also teaches you how to extract features from text data using spaCy, classify news and assign sentiment scores, and to use gensim to model topics and learn word embeddings from financial reports. You will also build and evaluate neural networks, including RNNs and CNNs, using Keras and PyTorch to exploit unstructured data for sophisticated strategies. Finally, you will apply transfer learning to satellite images to predict economic activity and use reinforcement learning to build agents that learn to trade in the OpenAI Gym. What you will learnImplement machine learning techniques to solve investment and trading problemsLeverage market, fundamental, and alternative data to research alpha factorsDesign and fine-tune supervised, unsupervised, and reinforcement learning modelsOptimize portfolio risk and performance using pandas, NumPy, and scikit-learnIntegrate machine learning models into a live trading strategy on QuantopianEvaluate strategies using reliable backtesting methodologies for time seriesDesign and evaluate deep neural networks using Keras, PyTorch, and TensorFlowWork with reinforcement learning for trading strategies in the OpenAI GymWho this book is for Hands-On Machine Learning for Algorithmic Trading is for data analysts, data scientists, and Python developers, as well as investment analysts and portfolio managers working within the finance and investment industry. If you want to perform efficient algorithmic trading by developing smart investigating strategies using machine learning algorithms, this is the book for you. Some understanding of Python and machine learning techniques is mandatory.

Statistical Arbitrage

Statistical Arbitrage
Author: Andrew Pole
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Total Pages: 230
Release: 2011-07-07
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1118160738

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While statistical arbitrage has faced some tough times?as markets experienced dramatic changes in dynamics beginning in 2000?new developments in algorithmic trading have allowed it to rise from the ashes of that fire. Based on the results of author Andrew Pole?s own research and experience running a statistical arbitrage hedge fund for eight years?in partnership with a group whose own history stretches back to the dawn of what was first called pairs trading?this unique guide provides detailed insights into the nuances of a proven investment strategy. Filled with in-depth insights and expert advice, Statistical Arbitrage contains comprehensive analysis that will appeal to both investors looking for an overview of this discipline, as well as quants looking for critical insights into modeling, risk management, and implementation of the strategy.

Advances in Financial Machine Learning

Advances in Financial Machine Learning
Author: Marcos Lopez de Prado
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Total Pages: 400
Release: 2018-01-23
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1119482119

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Machine learning (ML) is changing virtually every aspect of our lives. Today ML algorithms accomplish tasks that until recently only expert humans could perform. As it relates to finance, this is the most exciting time to adopt a disruptive technology that will transform how everyone invests for generations. Readers will learn how to structure Big data in a way that is amenable to ML algorithms; how to conduct research with ML algorithms on that data; how to use supercomputing methods; how to backtest your discoveries while avoiding false positives. The book addresses real-life problems faced by practitioners on a daily basis, and explains scientifically sound solutions using math, supported by code and examples. Readers become active users who can test the proposed solutions in their particular setting. Written by a recognized expert and portfolio manager, this book will equip investment professionals with the groundbreaking tools needed to succeed in modern finance.

Machine Learning in Finance

Machine Learning in Finance
Author: Matthew F. Dixon
Publisher: Springer Nature
Total Pages: 565
Release: 2020-07-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 3030410684

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This book introduces machine learning methods in finance. It presents a unified treatment of machine learning and various statistical and computational disciplines in quantitative finance, such as financial econometrics and discrete time stochastic control, with an emphasis on how theory and hypothesis tests inform the choice of algorithm for financial data modeling and decision making. With the trend towards increasing computational resources and larger datasets, machine learning has grown into an important skillset for the finance industry. This book is written for advanced graduate students and academics in financial econometrics, mathematical finance and applied statistics, in addition to quants and data scientists in the field of quantitative finance. Machine Learning in Finance: From Theory to Practice is divided into three parts, each part covering theory and applications. The first presents supervised learning for cross-sectional data from both a Bayesian and frequentist perspective. The more advanced material places a firm emphasis on neural networks, including deep learning, as well as Gaussian processes, with examples in investment management and derivative modeling. The second part presents supervised learning for time series data, arguably the most common data type used in finance with examples in trading, stochastic volatility and fixed income modeling. Finally, the third part presents reinforcement learning and its applications in trading, investment and wealth management. Python code examples are provided to support the readers' understanding of the methodologies and applications. The book also includes more than 80 mathematical and programming exercises, with worked solutions available to instructors. As a bridge to research in this emergent field, the final chapter presents the frontiers of machine learning in finance from a researcher's perspective, highlighting how many well-known concepts in statistical physics are likely to emerge as important methodologies for machine learning in finance.

Detecting Regime Change in Computational Finance

Detecting Regime Change in Computational Finance
Author: Jun Chen
Publisher: CRC Press
Total Pages: 165
Release: 2020-09-14
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1000220168

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Based on interdisciplinary research into "Directional Change", a new data-driven approach to financial data analysis, Detecting Regime Change in Computational Finance: Data Science, Machine Learning and Algorithmic Trading applies machine learning to financial market monitoring and algorithmic trading. Directional Change is a new way of summarising price changes in the market. Instead of sampling prices at fixed intervals (such as daily closing in time series), it samples prices when the market changes direction ("zigzags"). By sampling data in a different way, this book lays out concepts which enable the extraction of information that other market participants may not be able to see. The book includes a Foreword by Richard Olsen and explores the following topics: Data science: as an alternative to time series, price movements in a market can be summarised as directional changes Machine learning for regime change detection: historical regime changes in a market can be discovered by a Hidden Markov Model Regime characterisation: normal and abnormal regimes in historical data can be characterised using indicators defined under Directional Change Market Monitoring: by using historical characteristics of normal and abnormal regimes, one can monitor the market to detect whether the market regime has changed Algorithmic trading: regime tracking information can help us to design trading algorithms It will be of great interest to researchers in computational finance, machine learning and data science. About the Authors Jun Chen received his PhD in computational finance from the Centre for Computational Finance and Economic Agents, University of Essex in 2019. Edward P K Tsang is an Emeritus Professor at the University of Essex, where he co-founded the Centre for Computational Finance and Economic Agents in 2002.

Artificial Intelligence in Finance

Artificial Intelligence in Finance
Author: Yves Hilpisch
Publisher: O'Reilly Media
Total Pages: 477
Release: 2020-10-14
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1492055409

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The widespread adoption of AI and machine learning is revolutionizing many industries today. Once these technologies are combined with the programmatic availability of historical and real-time financial data, the financial industry will also change fundamentally. With this practical book, you'll learn how to use AI and machine learning to discover statistical inefficiencies in financial markets and exploit them through algorithmic trading. Author Yves Hilpisch shows practitioners, students, and academics in both finance and data science practical ways to apply machine learning and deep learning algorithms to finance. Thanks to lots of self-contained Python examples, you'll be able to replicate all results and figures presented in the book. In five parts, this guide helps you: Learn central notions and algorithms from AI, including recent breakthroughs on the way to artificial general intelligence (AGI) and superintelligence (SI) Understand why data-driven finance, AI, and machine learning will have a lasting impact on financial theory and practice Apply neural networks and reinforcement learning to discover statistical inefficiencies in financial markets Identify and exploit economic inefficiencies through backtesting and algorithmic trading--the automated execution of trading strategies Understand how AI will influence the competitive dynamics in the financial industry and what the potential emergence of a financial singularity might bring about

Statistically Sound Indicators For Financial Market Prediction

Statistically Sound Indicators For Financial Market Prediction
Author: Timothy Masters
Publisher:
Total Pages: 394
Release: 2019-10-22
Genre:
ISBN: 9781698339993

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In my decades of professional experience as a statistical consultant in the field of financial market trading, the single most important lesson that I've learned about trading is this: the quality of the indicators is vastly more important than the quality of the trading algorithm or predictive model. If you are sloppy about your indicator computation, no high-tech model or algorithm is going to bail you out. Garbage in, garbage out still rules. This book presents numerous traditional and modern indicators that have been shown to carry significant predictive information. But it will do far more than just that. In addition to a wealth of useful indicators, you will see the following issues discussed: There are simple tests that let you measure the potential information-carrying capacity of an indicator. If your proposed indicator fails this information-capacity test, you should consider revising it. This book describes simple transformations that raise the information-carrying capacity of your indicators and make them more useful for algorithmic trading. You will learn how to locate the regions in your indicator's domain where maximum predictive power occurs so that you can focus on these important values. You will learn how to compute statistically sound probabilities to help you decide whether the performance of an indicator is legitimate or just the product of random good luck. Most traditional indicators examine one market at a time. But you will learn how examining pairs of markets, or even large collections of markets simultaneously, can provide valuable indicators that quantify complex inter-market relationships. Govinda Khalsa devised a powerful indicator called the Follow-Through Index which reveals how likely it is that an existing trend will continue. This indicator is extremely useful to trend-following traders, but due to its complexity it is not widely employed. This book presents its essential theory and implementation in C++. Gary Anderson developed a detailed and profound theory of market behavior that he calls The JANUS Factor. This theory enables computation of several powerful indicators that tell us, among other things, when trading opportunities are most likely to be profitable and when we should stay out of the market. This book provides the fundamental theory behind The JANUS Factor along with extensive C++ code. Whether you compute a few indicators and trade by watching their plots on a computer screen, or do simple automated algorithmic trading, or employ sophisticated predictive models, this book provides tools that help you take your trading to a higher, more profitable level.

Machine Learning and Data Science Blueprints for Finance

Machine Learning and Data Science Blueprints for Finance
Author: Hariom Tatsat
Publisher: "O'Reilly Media, Inc."
Total Pages: 432
Release: 2020-10-01
Genre: Computers
ISBN: 1492073008

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Over the next few decades, machine learning and data science will transform the finance industry. With this practical book, analysts, traders, researchers, and developers will learn how to build machine learning algorithms crucial to the industry. You’ll examine ML concepts and over 20 case studies in supervised, unsupervised, and reinforcement learning, along with natural language processing (NLP). Ideal for professionals working at hedge funds, investment and retail banks, and fintech firms, this book also delves deep into portfolio management, algorithmic trading, derivative pricing, fraud detection, asset price prediction, sentiment analysis, and chatbot development. You’ll explore real-life problems faced by practitioners and learn scientifically sound solutions supported by code and examples. This book covers: Supervised learning regression-based models for trading strategies, derivative pricing, and portfolio management Supervised learning classification-based models for credit default risk prediction, fraud detection, and trading strategies Dimensionality reduction techniques with case studies in portfolio management, trading strategy, and yield curve construction Algorithms and clustering techniques for finding similar objects, with case studies in trading strategies and portfolio management Reinforcement learning models and techniques used for building trading strategies, derivatives hedging, and portfolio management NLP techniques using Python libraries such as NLTK and scikit-learn for transforming text into meaningful representations

Learn Algorithmic Trading

Learn Algorithmic Trading
Author: Sebastien Donadio
Publisher: Packt Publishing Ltd
Total Pages: 378
Release: 2019-11-07
Genre: Computers
ISBN: 1789342147

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Understand the fundamentals of algorithmic trading to apply algorithms to real market data and analyze the results of real-world trading strategies Key FeaturesUnderstand the power of algorithmic trading in financial markets with real-world examples Get up and running with the algorithms used to carry out algorithmic trading Learn to build your own algorithmic trading robots which require no human interventionBook Description It’s now harder than ever to get a significant edge over competitors in terms of speed and efficiency when it comes to algorithmic trading. Relying on sophisticated trading signals, predictive models and strategies can make all the difference. This book will guide you through these aspects, giving you insights into how modern electronic trading markets and participants operate. You’ll start with an introduction to algorithmic trading, along with setting up the environment required to perform the tasks in the book. You’ll explore the key components of an algorithmic trading business and aspects you’ll need to take into account before starting an automated trading project. Next, you’ll focus on designing, building and operating the components required for developing a practical and profitable algorithmic trading business. Later, you’ll learn how quantitative trading signals and strategies are developed, and also implement and analyze sophisticated trading strategies such as volatility strategies, economic release strategies, and statistical arbitrage. Finally, you’ll create a trading bot from scratch using the algorithms built in the previous sections. By the end of this book, you’ll be well-versed with electronic trading markets and have learned to implement, evaluate and safely operate algorithmic trading strategies in live markets. What you will learnUnderstand the components of modern algorithmic trading systems and strategies Apply machine learning in algorithmic trading signals and strategies using Python Build, visualize and analyze trading strategies based on mean reversion, trend, economic releases and more Quantify and build a risk management system for Python trading strategies Build a backtester to run simulated trading strategies for improving the performance of your trading botDeploy and incorporate trading strategies in the live market to maintain and improve profitability Who this book is for This book is for software engineers, financial traders, data analysts, and entrepreneurs. Anyone who wants to get started with algorithmic trading and understand how it works; and learn the components of a trading system, protocols and algorithms required for black box and gray box trading, and techniques for building a completely automated and profitable trading business will also find this book useful.