Sovereign Debt Distress and Corporate Spillover Impacts

Sovereign Debt Distress and Corporate Spillover Impacts
Author: Mansoor Dailami
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 2012
Genre:
ISBN:

Download Sovereign Debt Distress and Corporate Spillover Impacts Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle

In much of the standard corporate finance literature in which sovereign debt is treated as a risk free asset, corporate bond prices are seen to depend on idiosyncratic risk factors specific to the issuing company, with public debt playing an indirect role to the extent that it affects the term structure of interest rates. In the corporate world, however, the ability of a borrower to access international capital markets and the terms according to which it can raise capital depend not only on its own creditworthiness, but also on the financial health of its home-country sovereign. In times of financial stress, when investors lose confidence in the government's ability to use public finances to stabilize the economy or provide a safety net for corporations in distress, markets' assessment of private credit risk takes on a completely different dynamic than during normal times, incorporating an additional risk premium to compensate investors for the potential consequences of sovereign default. Using a new database that covers nearly every emerging-market corporate and sovereign entity that has issued bonds on global markets between 1995 and 2009, this paper investigates the degree to which heightened sovereign default risk perceptions during times of market turmoil influence the determination of corporate bond yield spreads, controlling for specific bond attributes and common global risk factors. Econometric evidence presented confirms that investors' perceptions of sovereign debt problems translate into higher costs of capital for private corporate issuers, with the magnitude of such costs increasing at times when sovereign bonds trade at spreads exceeding a threshold of 1000 bps. The key policy recommendation emerging from the analysis relates to the need to improve sovereign creditworthiness in order to prevent a loss in investor confidence that could trigger a panicky sell-off in sovereign debt with adverse macroeconomic and fiscal consequences. Implications for future research point to the need to develop better models of corporate bond pricing and valuation, recognizing explicitly the role of sovereign credit risk.

The Cost of Aggressive Sovereign Debt Policies

The Cost of Aggressive Sovereign Debt Policies
Author: Christoph Trebesch
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 37
Release: 2009-02-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1451871767

Download The Cost of Aggressive Sovereign Debt Policies Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle

This paper proposes a new empirical measure of cooperative versus conflictual crisis resolution following sovereign default and debt distress. The index of government coerciveness is presented as a proxy for excusable versus inexcusable default behaviour and used to evaluate the costs of default for the domestic private sector, in particular its access to international debt markets. Our findings indicate that unilateral, aggressive sovereign debt policies lead to a strong decline in corporate access to external finance (loans and bond issuance). We conclude that coercive government actions towards external creditors can have strong signalling effects with negative spillovers on domestic firms. "Good faith" debt renegotiations may be crucial to minimize the domestic costs of sovereign defaults.

Sovereign Debt

Sovereign Debt
Author: Rob Quail
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Total Pages: 435
Release: 2011-02-25
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1118017552

Download Sovereign Debt Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle

An intelligent analysis of the dangers, opportunities, and consequences of global sovereign debt Sovereign debt is growing internationally at a terrifying rate, as nations seek to prop up their collapsing economies. One only needs to look at the sovereign risk pressures faced by Greece, Spain, and Ireland to get an idea of how big this problem has become. Understanding this dilemma is now more important than ever, that's why Robert Kolb has compiled Sovereign Debt. With this book as your guide, you'll gain a better perspective on the essential issues surrounding sovereign debt and default through discussions of national defaults, systemic risk, associated costs, and much more. Historical studies are also included to provide a realistic framework of reference. Contains up-to-date research and analysis on sovereign debt from today's leading practitioners and academics Details the dangers of defaults and their associated systemic risks Explores the past, present, and future of sovereign debt The repercussions of a national default are all-encompassing as global markets are intricately interwoven in the modern world. Sovereign Debt examines what it will take to overcome the challenges of this market and how you can deal with the uncertainty surrounding it.

Sovereign Debt Restructurings 1950-2010

Sovereign Debt Restructurings 1950-2010
Author: Mr.Udaibir S. Das
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 128
Release: 2012-08-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1475505531

Download Sovereign Debt Restructurings 1950-2010 Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle

This paper provides a comprehensive survey of pertinent issues on sovereign debt restructurings, based on a newly constructed database. This is the first complete dataset of sovereign restructuring cases, covering the six decades from 1950–2010; it includes 186 debt exchanges with foreign banks and bondholders, and 447 bilateral debt agreements with the Paris Club. We present new stylized facts on the outcome and process of debt restructurings, including on the size of haircuts, creditor participation, and legal aspects. In addition, the paper summarizes the relevant empirical literature, analyzes recent restructuring episodes, and discusses ongoing debates on crisis resolution mechanisms, credit default swaps, and the role of collective action clauses.

Sovereign Debt and the Financial Crisis

Sovereign Debt and the Financial Crisis
Author: Carlos A. Primo Braga
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Total Pages: 528
Release: 2010-11-16
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0821385437

Download Sovereign Debt and the Financial Crisis Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle

The book presents and discusses policy-relevant research on the current debt challenges which developing, emerging market and developed countries face. Its value added lies in the integrated approach of drawing on theoretical research and evidence from practitioners' experience in developing and emerging market countries.

The Dynamics of Spillover Effects During the European Sovereign Debt Crisis

The Dynamics of Spillover Effects During the European Sovereign Debt Crisis
Author: Adrian Alter
Publisher:
Total Pages: 54
Release: 2013
Genre:
ISBN:

Download The Dynamics of Spillover Effects During the European Sovereign Debt Crisis Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle

In this paper we develop empirical measures for the strength of spillover effects. Modifying and extending the framework by Diebold and Yilmaz (2011), we quantify spillovers between sovereign credit markets and banks in the euro area. Spillovers are estimated recursively from a vector autoregressive model of daily CDS spread changes, with exogenous common factors. We account for interdependencies between sovereign and bank CDS spreads and we derive generalised impulse response functions. Specifically, we assess the systemic effect of an unexpected shock to the creditworthiness of a particular sovereign or country-specific bank index to other sovereign or bank CDSs between October 2009 and July 2012. Channels of transmission from or to sovereigns and banks are aggregated as a Contagion Index (CI). This index is disentangled into four components, the average potential spillover: i) amongst sovereigns, ii) amongst banks, iii) from sovereigns to banks, and iv) vice-versa. We highlight the impact of policy-related events along the different components of the contagion index. The systemic contribution of each sovereign or banking group is quantified as the net spillover weight in the total net-spillover measure. Finally, the captured time-varying interdependence between banks and sovereigns emphasises the evolution of their strong nexus.

Managing the Sovereign-Bank Nexus

Managing the Sovereign-Bank Nexus
Author: Mr.Giovanni Dell'Ariccia
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 54
Release: 2018-09-07
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1484359623

Download Managing the Sovereign-Bank Nexus Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle

This paper reviews empirical and theoretical work on the links between banks and their governments (the bank-sovereign nexus). How significant is this nexus? What do we know about it? To what extent is it a source of concern? What is the role of policy intervention? The paper concludes with a review of recent policy proposals.

News Spillovers in the Sovereign Debt Market

News Spillovers in the Sovereign Debt Market
Author: Amar Gande
Publisher:
Total Pages: 42
Release: 2012
Genre:
ISBN:

Download News Spillovers in the Sovereign Debt Market Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle

We study the effect of a sovereign credit rating change of one country on the sovereign credit spreads of other countries from 1991 to 2000. We find evidence of spillover effects, that is, a ratings change in one country has a significant effect on sovereign credit spreads of other countries. This effect is asymmetric: positive ratings events abroad have no discernable impact on sovereign spreads, whereas negative ratings events are associated with an increase in spreads. On average, a one-notch downgrade of a sovereign bond is associated with a 12 basis point increase in spreads of sovereign bonds of other countries. Interestingly, the magnitude of the spillover effect following a negative ratings change is amplified by recent ratings changes in other countries. We distinguish between common information and differential components of spillovers. While common information spillovers imply that sovereign spreads move in tandem, differential spillovers are expected to result in opposite effects of ratings events across countries. Despite the predominance of common information spillovers, we also find evidence of differential spillovers among countries with highly negatively correlated capital flows or trade flows vis-agrave;-vis the United States. That is, spreads in these countries generally fall in response to a downgrade of a country with highly negatively correlated capital or trade flows. Variables proxying for cultural or institutional linkages (e.g., common language, formal trade blocs, common-law legal systems), physical proximity, or rule of law traditions across countries do not seem to affect estimated spillover effects.

Sovereign Default Risk and Private Sector Access to Capital in Emerging Markets

Sovereign Default Risk and Private Sector Access to Capital in Emerging Markets
Author: Mr. Udaibir S. Das
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 41
Release: 2010-01-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1451918593

Download Sovereign Default Risk and Private Sector Access to Capital in Emerging Markets Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle

Top down spillovers of sovereign default risk can have serious consequences for the private sector in emerging markets. This paper analyzes the effects of these spillovers using firm-level data from 31 emerging market economies. We assess how sovereign risk affects corporate access to international capital markets, in the form of external credit (loans and bond issuances) and equity issuances. The study first analyzes the impact of sovereign debt crises during the 1980s and 1990s. It goes on to examine the 1993 to 2007 period, using additional measures of sovereign risk-sovereign bond spreads and sovereign ratings-as explanatory variables. Overall, we find that sovereign default risk is a crucial determinant of private sector access to capital, be it external debt or equity. We also find that crisis resolution patterns matter and that defaults towards private creditors have stronger adverse consequences than defaults to official creditors.