Shock Propagation Across The Futures Term Structure
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Author | : Delphine Lautier |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 42 |
Release | : 2018 |
Genre | : |
ISBN | : |
Download Shock Propagation Across the Futures Term Structure Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle
To what extent are futures prices interconnected across the maturity curve? Where in the term structure do price shocks originate, and which maturities do they reach? We propose a new approach, based on information theory, to study these cross-maturity linkages and the extent to which connectedness is impacted by market events. We introduce the concepts of backward and forward information flows, and propose a novel type of directed graph, to investigate the propagation of price shocks across the WTI term structure. Using daily data, we show that the mutual information shared by contracts with different maturities increases substantially starting in 2004, falls back sharply in 2011-2014, and recovers thereafter. Our findings point to a puzzling re-segmentation by maturity of the WTI market in 2012-2014. We document that, on average, short-dated futures emit more information than do backdated contracts. Importantly, however, we also show that significant amounts of information flow backwards along the maturity curve - almost always from intermediate maturities, but at times even from far-dated contracts. These backward flows are especially strong and far-reaching amid the 2007-2008 oil price boom/bust.
Author | : Bassam Fattouh |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 25 |
Release | : 2012 |
Genre | : Petroleum products |
ISBN | : 9781907555442 |
Download The Role of Speculation in Oil Markets Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle
Author | : Mr. Kangni R Kpodar |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 34 |
Release | : 2021-11-12 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1616356154 |
Download The Distributional Implications of the Impact of Fuel Price Increases on Inflation Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle
This paper investigates the response of consumer price inflation to changes in domestic fuel prices, looking at the different categories of the overall consumer price index (CPI). We then combine household survey data with the CPI components to construct a CPI index for the poorest and richest income quintiles with the view to assess the distributional impact of the pass-through. To undertake this analysis, the paper provides an update to the Global Monthly Retail Fuel Price Database, expanding the product coverage to premium and regular fuels, the time dimension to December 2020, and the sample to 190 countries. Three key findings stand out. First, the response of inflation to gasoline price shocks is smaller, but more persistent and broad-based in developing economies than in advanced economies. Second, we show that past studies using crude oil prices instead of retail fuel prices to estimate the pass-through to inflation significantly underestimate it. Third, while the purchasing power of all households declines as fuel prices increase, the distributional impact is progressive. But the progressivity phases out within 6 months after the shock in advanced economies, whereas it persists beyond a year in developing countries.
Author | : Takatoshi Ito |
Publisher | : University of Chicago Press |
Total Pages | : 346 |
Release | : 2011-03 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 0226386899 |
Download Commodity Prices and Markets Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle
Fluctuations of commodity prices, most notably of oil, capture considerable attention and have been tied to important economic effects. This book advances our understanding of the consequences of these fluctuations, providing both general analysis and a particular focus on the countries of the Pacific Rim.
Author | : John B. Taylor |
Publisher | : North Holland |
Total Pages | : 596 |
Release | : 1999-12-13 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : |
Download Handbook of Macroeconomics Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle
This text aims to provide a survey of the state of knowledge in the broad area that includes the theories and facts of economic growth and economic fluctuations, as well as the consequences of monetary and fiscal policies for general economic conditions.
Author | : Kamruzzaman, Joarder |
Publisher | : IGI Global |
Total Pages | : 299 |
Release | : 2006-03-31 |
Genre | : Computers |
ISBN | : 1591406722 |
Download Artificial Neural Networks in Finance and Manufacturing Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle
"This book presents a variety of practical applications of neural networks in two important domains of economic activity: finance and manufacturing"--Provided by publisher.
Author | : Tobias Adrian |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 40 |
Release | : 2018-08-02 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1484372867 |
Download The Term Structure of Growth-at-Risk Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle
Using panel quantile regressions for 11 advanced and 10 emerging market economies, we show that the conditional distribution of GDP growth depends on financial conditions, with growth-at-risk (GaR)—defined as growth at the lower 5th percentile—more responsive than the median or upper percentiles. In addition, the term structure of GaR features an intertemporal tradeoff: GaR is higher in the short run; but lower in the medium run when initial financial conditions are loose relative to typical levels, and the tradeoff is amplified by a credit boom. This shift in the growth distribution generally is not incorporated when solving dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models with macrofinancial linkages, which suggests downside risks to GDP growth are systematically underestimated.
Author | : Mr.Luis Brandao-Marques |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 54 |
Release | : 2020-02-21 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1513529730 |
Download Monetary Policy Transmission in Emerging Markets and Developing Economies Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle
Central banks in emerging and developing economies (EMDEs) have been modernizing their monetary policy frameworks, often moving toward inflation targeting (IT). However, questions regarding the strength of monetary policy transmission from interest rates to inflation and output have often stalled progress. We conduct a novel empirical analysis using Jordà’s (2005) approach for 40 EMDEs to shed a light on monetary transmission in these countries. We find that interest rate hikes reduce output growth and inflation, once we explicitly account for the behavior of the exchange rate. Having a modern monetary policy framework—adopting IT and independent and transparent central banks—matters more for monetary transmission than financial development.
Author | : Laurent Ferrara |
Publisher | : Springer |
Total Pages | : 300 |
Release | : 2018-06-13 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 3319790757 |
Download International Macroeconomics in the Wake of the Global Financial Crisis Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle
This book collects selected articles addressing several currently debated issues in the field of international macroeconomics. They focus on the role of the central banks in the debate on how to come to terms with the long-term decline in productivity growth, insufficient aggregate demand, high economic uncertainty and growing inequalities following the global financial crisis. Central banks are of considerable importance in this debate since understanding the sluggishness of the recovery process as well as its implications for the natural interest rate are key to assessing output gaps and the monetary policy stance. The authors argue that a more dynamic domestic and external aggregate demand helps to raise the inflation rate, easing the constraint deriving from the zero lower bound and allowing monetary policy to depart from its current ultra-accommodative position. Beyond macroeconomic factors, the book also discusses a supportive financial environment as a precondition for the rebound of global economic activity, stressing that understanding capital flows is a prerequisite for economic-policy decisions.
Author | : Frank J. Fabozzi |
Publisher | : John Wiley & Sons |
Total Pages | : 324 |
Release | : 1997-12-15 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 9781883249236 |
Download Treasury Securities and Derivatives Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle
Treasury securities represent the largest sector of interest rate markets. This book will provide securities newcomers with the tools they need to get up to speed and seasoned professionals with a valuable reference source. The book covers every aspect of the market, including: the basics, valuation techniques, risk analysis, and utilizing derivatives to control interest rate risk.