Review of the Framework for Data Adequacy Assessment for Surveillance

Review of the Framework for Data Adequacy Assessment for Surveillance
Author: International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 21
Release: 2024-01-05
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN:

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This paper reviews the framework for Data Adequacy Assessment for Surveillance, which is a key element of the policies that govern the requirements for Data Provision to the Fund for Surveillance Purposes, aimed at ensuring high-quality data for economic analysis and policy advice. The Data Adequacy Assessment requires staff to assess, in the context of Article IV consultations, the adequacy of data provided to the Fund for surveillance purposes, the implications of data inadequacies for surveillance, and the need for corrective measures. In line with the recommendation of the Independent Evaluation Office’s report “Behind the Scenes with Data at the IMF: An IEO Evaluation” and previous guidance provided by the IMF Executive Board, this paper introduces a new framework to prepare the Data Adequacy Assessment, ensuring greater objectivity and granularity in the assessment. Data adequacy will become more prominent in the surveillance discussions by including a new Data Issues Annex in the staff report, which will replace the current Statistical Issues Appendix in the Informational Annex. The new framework will facilitate the policy dialogue with country authorities on macro-critical data issues and enhance the integration of surveillance and capacity development.

Review of Data Provision to the Fund for Surveillance Purposes

Review of Data Provision to the Fund for Surveillance Purposes
Author: International Monetary Fund
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 129
Release: 2024-04-12
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN:

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Data provision by member countries is a key input into the IMF’s surveillance activities. The 2024 Review of Data Provision to the Fund for Surveillance Purposes took place against the backdrop of profound shifts in the global economy, highlighting the important need for adequate macroeconomic and financial data to inform analysis and policymaking. This Review achieved a substantial, but manageable, update to the overall envelope of data that members are required to provide to the Fund in the areas of public sector, foreign exchange intervention, and macrofinancial indicators. Addressing these data gaps will reduce blind spots and support even-handedness in Fund surveillance. The Review also introduced a more structured and transparent assessment of data adequacy for surveillance. This strengthened framework will facilitate policy dialogue with the authorities on data issues and improve prioritization of capacity development efforts. Finally, the Review confirmed the long-standing practice of not applying the remedial framework when members do not provide certain data categories that the Fund considers outdated.

Botswana

Botswana
Author: International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 67
Release: 2024-09-10
Genre:
ISBN:

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Botswana is experiencing a significant slowdown from a diamond market contraction in 2023–24. Inflation has declined sharply since the peak of mid-2022 and returned to the central bank’s objective range, where it is expected to remain in the medium term. The authorities plan a fiscal expansion in FY2024 followed by two years of substantial adjustment to reach a fiscal surplus by FY2026. The external position should soften over the medium term, with FX reserves decreasing to 5 months of imports. The financial sector remains sound and stable despite the economic downturn.

Selected Decisions and Selected Documents of the International Monetary Fund

Selected Decisions and Selected Documents of the International Monetary Fund
Author: International Monetary Fund. Legal Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 54
Release: 2024-08-09
Genre:
ISBN:

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A supplement to the Forty-Third Issue of Selected Decisions and Selected Documents of the International Monetary Fund, incorporating items posted after January 1, 2023.

United States

United States
Author: International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 89
Release: 2024-07-18
Genre:
ISBN:

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The U.S. economy has turned in a remarkable performance over the past few years. Hysteresis effects from the pandemic did not materialize and both activity and employment now exceed pre-pandemic expectations. Real incomes were diminished by the unexpected rise in inflation in 2022 but have now risen above prepandemic levels. Job growth has been particularly fast, with 16 million new jobs created since end-2020. However, income and wealth gains have been uneven across the income distribution and poverty remains high, particularly following the expiration of pandemic era support. The outlook is for a continued healthy rate of growth with balanced risks around the baseline forecast.

Indonesia

Indonesia
Author: International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 135
Release: 2024-08-07
Genre:
ISBN:

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Indonesia’s growth remains strong despite external headwinds. Inflation is firmly in the target range and the financial sector is resilient. The authorities have been pursuing an ambitious growth agenda to reach high-income status by 2045. This comprises public spending, institutional reforms, and Industrial Policy (IP). Risks are broadly balanced. Key downside risks include persistent commodity price volatility (e.g., from geopolitical shocks), an abrupt slowdown in Indonesia’s key trading partners, or adverse spillovers from tighter-for-longer global financial conditions. On the domestic side, a weakening of long-standing sound macro-fiscal frameworks could hamper policy credibility. On the upside, stronger-than-anticipated growth in trading partners or faster disinflation in AEs could prop up growth while deep structural reforms would raise growth over the medium term.

Iraq

Iraq
Author: International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 68
Release: 2024-05-16
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN:

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Domestic stability has improved since the new government took office in October 2022. This has facilitated the passage of Iraq’s first three-year budget, which entailed a large fiscal expansion starting in 2023. The non-oil economy has rebounded strongly in 2023 after stalling in 2022 and was largely unaffected by the ongoing conflict in the region. Nonetheless, Iraq remains highly vulnerable to oil price fluctuations and private sector activity is hindered by the large state footprint—including as an employer of first resort—corruption, red tape, underdeveloped infrastructure, and poor access to credit.

Singapore

Singapore
Author: International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 80
Release: 2024-07-31
Genre:
ISBN:

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Following a slowdown in 2023, growth is projected to recover gradually to 2.1 percent in 2024. After reaching 6.1 percent in 2022, inflation has steadily declined to 2.7 percent in April 2024. The pace of disinflation has nonetheless been gradual, with signs of persistent price pressures including from a tight labor market. With risks to global growth now broadly balanced, downside risks to growth outlook have diminished relative to last year, but Singapore remains vulnerable to a deepening of geoeconomic fragmentation. Inflation risks remain tilted to the upside.

Cyprus

Cyprus
Author: International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 79
Release: 2024-05-28
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN:

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Growth moderated in 2023 with slowing consumption growth, lower services exports to Russia, and fading post-pandemic base effects. But growth has remained above the euro area (EA) average, supported by a continued recovery in tourism, expanding financial services and ICT activity, and strong investments. The labor markets are tight, with unemployment at a near two-decade low. Headline inflation dipped below 2 percent, but core inflation has been more persistent. Growth is expected to stabilize in 2024 and rise to 3 percent in the medium term.

Hungary

Hungary
Author: International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 85
Release: 2024-08-02
Genre:
ISBN:

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Hungary is emerging from a period of shocks. The pandemic, Russia’s war in Ukraine, and crisis-related stimulus widened fiscal and external imbalances and triggered double-digit inflation in 2022. Thanks to an effective monetary policy response aided by falling commodity prices and a tighter fiscal stance in 2023, inflation came down significantly, while the labor market and financial sector remained resilient. A large current account deficit in 2022 turned into a surplus, and output is starting to recover. However, significant challenges remain. The fiscal deficit and public-debt-to GDP ratios are well above 2019 levels, and various windfall taxes have created investor uncertainty. Interest rate caps and subsidized lending measures have distorted market rates, and a significant state presence in key sectors impedes competition.