Representing Uncertain Knowledge

Representing Uncertain Knowledge
Author: Paul Krause
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 287
Release: 2012-12-06
Genre: Computers
ISBN: 9401120846

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The representation of uncertainty is a central issue in Artificial Intelligence (AI) and is being addressed in many different ways. Each approach has its proponents, and each has had its detractors. However, there is now an in creasing move towards the belief that an eclectic approach is required to represent and reason under the many facets of uncertainty. We believe that the time is ripe for a wide ranging, yet accessible, survey of the main for malisms. In this book, we offer a broad perspective on uncertainty and approach es to managing uncertainty. Rather than provide a daunting mass of techni cal detail, we have focused on the foundations and intuitions behind the various schools. The aim has been to present in one volume an overview of the major issues and decisions to be made in representing uncertain knowl edge. We identify the central role of managing uncertainty to AI and Expert Systems, and provide a comprehensive introduction to the different aspects of uncertainty. We then describe the rationales, advantages and limitations of the major approaches that have been taken, using illustrative examples. The book ends with a review of the lessons learned and current research di rections in the field. The intended readership will include researchers and practitioners in volved in the design and implementation of Decision Support Systems, Ex pert Systems, other Knowledge-Based Systems and in Cognitive Science.

Reasoning about Uncertainty, second edition

Reasoning about Uncertainty, second edition
Author: Joseph Y. Halpern
Publisher: MIT Press
Total Pages: 505
Release: 2017-04-07
Genre: Computers
ISBN: 0262533804

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Formal ways of representing uncertainty and various logics for reasoning about it; updated with new material on weighted probability measures, complexity-theoretic considerations, and other topics. In order to deal with uncertainty intelligently, we need to be able to represent it and reason about it. In this book, Joseph Halpern examines formal ways of representing uncertainty and considers various logics for reasoning about it. While the ideas presented are formalized in terms of definitions and theorems, the emphasis is on the philosophy of representing and reasoning about uncertainty. Halpern surveys possible formal systems for representing uncertainty, including probability measures, possibility measures, and plausibility measures; considers the updating of beliefs based on changing information and the relation to Bayes' theorem; and discusses qualitative, quantitative, and plausibilistic Bayesian networks. This second edition has been updated to reflect Halpern's recent research. New material includes a consideration of weighted probability measures and how they can be used in decision making; analyses of the Doomsday argument and the Sleeping Beauty problem; modeling games with imperfect recall using the runs-and-systems approach; a discussion of complexity-theoretic considerations; the application of first-order conditional logic to security. Reasoning about Uncertainty is accessible and relevant to researchers and students in many fields, including computer science, artificial intelligence, economics (particularly game theory), mathematics, philosophy, and statistics.

Uncertainty and Vagueness in Knowledge Based Systems

Uncertainty and Vagueness in Knowledge Based Systems
Author: Rudolf Kruse
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 495
Release: 2012-12-06
Genre: Computers
ISBN: 3642767028

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The primary aim of this monograph is to provide a formal framework for the representation and management of uncertainty and vagueness in the field of artificial intelligence. It puts particular emphasis on a thorough analysis of these phenomena and on the development of sound mathematical modeling approaches. Beyond this theoretical basis the scope of the book includes also implementational aspects and a valuation of existing models and systems. The fundamental ambition of this book is to show that vagueness and un certainty can be handled adequately by using measure-theoretic methods. The presentation of applicable knowledge representation formalisms and reasoning algorithms substantiates the claim that efficiency requirements do not necessar ily require renunciation of an uncompromising mathematical modeling. These results are used to evaluate systems based on probabilistic methods as well as on non-standard concepts such as certainty factors, fuzzy sets or belief functions. The book is intended to be self-contained and addresses researchers and practioneers in the field of knowledge based systems. It is in particular suit able as a textbook for graduate-level students in AI, operations research and applied probability. A solid mathematical background is necessary for reading this book. Essential parts of the material have been the subject of courses given by the first author for students of computer science and mathematics held since 1984 at the University in Braunschweig.

Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence

Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence
Author: Laveen N. Kanal
Publisher: North Holland
Total Pages: 509
Release: 1986
Genre: Artificial intelligence
ISBN: 9780444700582

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Hardbound. How to deal with uncertainty is a subject of much controversy in Artificial Intelligence. This volume brings together a wide range of perspectives on uncertainty, many of the contributors being the principal proponents in the controversy.Some of the notable issues which emerge from these papers revolve around an interval-based calculus of uncertainty, the Dempster-Shafer Theory, and probability as the best numeric model for uncertainty. There remain strong dissenting opinions not only about probability but even about the utility of any numeric method in this context.

Representing and Reasoning with Probabilistic Knowledge

Representing and Reasoning with Probabilistic Knowledge
Author: Fahiem Bacchus
Publisher: Cambridge, Mass. : MIT Press
Total Pages: 264
Release: 1990
Genre: Computers
ISBN:

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Probabilistic information has many uses in an intelligent system. This book explores logical formalisms for representing and reasoning with probabilistic information that will be of particular value to researchers in nonmonotonic reasoning, applications of probabilities, and knowledge representation. It demonstrates that probabilities are not limited to particular applications, like expert systems; they have an important role to play in the formal design and specification of intelligent systems in general. Fahiem Bacchus focuses on two distinct notions of probabilities: one propositional, involving degrees of belief, the other proportional, involving statistics. He constructs distinct logics with different semantics for each type of probability that are a significant advance in the formal tools available for representing and reasoning with probabilities. These logics can represent an extensive variety of qualitative assertions, eliminating requirements for exact point-valued probabilities, and they can represent firstshy;order logical information. The logics also have proof theories which give a formal specification for a class of reasoning that subsumes and integrates most of the probabilistic reasoning schemes so far developed in AI. Using the new logical tools to connect statistical with propositional probability, Bacchus also proposes a system of direct inference in which degrees of belief can be inferred from statistical knowledge and demonstrates how this mechanism can be applied to yield a powerful and intuitively satisfying system of defeasible or default reasoning. Fahiem Bacchus is Assistant Professor of Computer Science at the University of Waterloo, Ontario. Contents: Introduction. Propositional Probabilities. Statistical Probabilities. Combining Statistical and Propositional Probabilities Default Inferences from Statistical Knowledge.

Reasoning about Uncertainty

Reasoning about Uncertainty
Author: Joseph Y. Halpern
Publisher: MIT Press
Total Pages: 498
Release: 2005-08-12
Genre: Computers
ISBN: 0262263076

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Uncertainty is a fundamental and unavoidable feature of daily life; in order to deal with uncertaintly intelligently, we need to be able to represent it and reason about it. In this book, Joseph Halpern examines formal ways of representing uncertainty and considers various logics for reasoning about it. While the ideas presented are formalized in terms of definitions and theorems, the emphasis is on the philosophy of representing and reasoning about uncertainty; the material is accessible and relevant to researchers and students in many fields, including computer science, artificial intelligence, economics (particularly game theory), mathematics, philosophy, and statistics. Halpern begins by surveying possible formal systems for representing uncertainty, including probability measures, possibility measures, and plausibility measures. He considers the updating of beliefs based on changing information and the relation to Bayes' theorem; this leads to a discussion of qualitative, quantitative, and plausibilistic Bayesian networks. He considers not only the uncertainty of a single agent but also uncertainty in a multi-agent framework. Halpern then considers the formal logical systems for reasoning about uncertainty. He discusses knowledge and belief; default reasoning and the semantics of default; reasoning about counterfactuals, and combining probability and counterfactuals; belief revision; first-order modal logic; and statistics and beliefs. He includes a series of exercises at the end of each chapter.

Reasoning about Uncertainty, second edition

Reasoning about Uncertainty, second edition
Author: Joseph Y. Halpern
Publisher: MIT Press
Total Pages: 505
Release: 2017-03-31
Genre: Computers
ISBN: 026234050X

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Formal ways of representing uncertainty and various logics for reasoning about it; updated with new material on weighted probability measures, complexity-theoretic considerations, and other topics. In order to deal with uncertainty intelligently, we need to be able to represent it and reason about it. In this book, Joseph Halpern examines formal ways of representing uncertainty and considers various logics for reasoning about it. While the ideas presented are formalized in terms of definitions and theorems, the emphasis is on the philosophy of representing and reasoning about uncertainty. Halpern surveys possible formal systems for representing uncertainty, including probability measures, possibility measures, and plausibility measures; considers the updating of beliefs based on changing information and the relation to Bayes' theorem; and discusses qualitative, quantitative, and plausibilistic Bayesian networks. This second edition has been updated to reflect Halpern's recent research. New material includes a consideration of weighted probability measures and how they can be used in decision making; analyses of the Doomsday argument and the Sleeping Beauty problem; modeling games with imperfect recall using the runs-and-systems approach; a discussion of complexity-theoretic considerations; the application of first-order conditional logic to security. Reasoning about Uncertainty is accessible and relevant to researchers and students in many fields, including computer science, artificial intelligence, economics (particularly game theory), mathematics, philosophy, and statistics.

Representing Knowledge and Evidence for Decision

Representing Knowledge and Evidence for Decision
Author:
Publisher:
Total Pages: 19
Release: 1986
Genre:
ISBN:

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Our decisions reflect uncertainty in various ways. We take account of the uncertainty embodied in the roll of the die; we less often take account of the uncertainty of our belief that the die is fair. We need to take account of both uncertain knowledge and our knowledge of uncertainty. Evidence itself has been regarded as uncertain. We argue that pointvalued probabilities are a poor representation of uncertainty; that we need not be concerned with uncertain evidence; that interval-valued probabilities that result from knowledge of convex sets of distribution functions in reference classes (properly) include Shafer's mass functions as a special case; that these probabilities yield a plausible non-monotonic form of inference (uncertain inference, inductive inference, statistical inference); and finally that this framework provides a very nearly classical decision theory -- so far as it goes. It is unclear how global the principles (such as minimax) that go beyond the principle of maximizing expected utility are. Artificial Intelligence, Data Fusion, evidence, uncertainty, decision non-monotonicity, knowledge representation, expert systems.

Artificial Intelligence with Uncertainty

Artificial Intelligence with Uncertainty
Author: Deyi Li
Publisher: CRC Press
Total Pages: 290
Release: 2017-05-18
Genre: Mathematics
ISBN: 1498776272

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This book develops a framework that shows how uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (AI) expands and generalizes traditional AI. It explores the uncertainties of knowledge and intelligence. The authors focus on the importance of natural language – the carrier of knowledge and intelligence, and introduce efficient physical methods for data mining amd control. In this new edition, we have more in-depth description of the models and methods, of which the mathematical properties are proved strictly which make these theories and methods more complete. The authors also highlight their latest research results.