Relationship Between Real Exchange Rate and Economic Growth in India

Relationship Between Real Exchange Rate and Economic Growth in India
Author: Amirdha Vasani Sankarkumar
Publisher:
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2020
Genre:
ISBN:

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This article studies a near relationship between the real exchange rate and economic growth in India, for the period from Q1 2005 to Q4 2017, by considering the variables such as Nominal Exchange Rate, Consumer Price Index, Balance of Payments, Exports, Foreign Exchange Reserves, Gross Domestic Product, Imports, Inflation, International Reserves and Money Supply. This study used the Johansen cointegration test, Granger Causality and ADF stationary tests, for the purpose of analysis. The study found that Real Exchange Rate did have a linear relationship with all the variables of Economic Growth, except Balance of Payments and Inflation. Granger Causality Test revealed that the Real Exchange Rate recorded unidirectional relationship with Exports, Foreign Exchange Reserves and Money Supply. There was long-run relationship between Real Exchange Rate and Economic Growth. Hence, the policy makers in India should pay special attention to these variables, in order to devise appropriate policy, for the economic growth of India in the long run.

Real Exchange Rates, Economic Complexity, and Investment

Real Exchange Rates, Economic Complexity, and Investment
Author: Steve Brito
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 21
Release: 2018-05-10
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1484356349

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We show that the response of firm-level investment to real exchange rate movements varies depending on the production structure of the economy. Firms in advanced economies and in emerging Asia increase investment when the domestic currency weakens, in line with the traditional Mundell-Fleming model. However, in other emerging market and developing economies, as well as some advanced economies with a low degree of structural economic complexity, corporate investment increases when the domestic currency strengthens. This result is consistent with Diaz Alejandro (1963)—in economies where capital goods are mostly imported, a stronger real exchange rate reduces investment costs for domestic firms.

Exchange Rate Economics

Exchange Rate Economics
Author: Richie Dezi
Publisher:
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2023-11-04
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9782534649931

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In the realm of developing countries like India today, Sabastian Edwards' testimonial from 1988, proclaiming that "real exchange rate behavior now occupies a central role in policy evaluation and design," remains highly pertinent. This enduring relevance stems from the substantial impact that exchange rates exert on the external competitiveness of economies. Exchange rate fluctuations wield considerable influence over the decisions made by global traders, foreign investors, international travelers, and policymakers. Their ramifications ripple through external financial obligations, trade balances, internal resource allocation, and economic productivity. The exchange rate stands out as one of the foremost indicators of economic value within a nation, as highlighted by Frait and Komárek in 2001. Its preeminent role is in gauging a country's economic growth. The exchange rate's influence extends across a multitude of economic dimensions, including international trade, the assessment of uncertainties surrounding export and import prices, the valuation of international reserves and open positions in foreign and domestic currencies, as well as the domestic currency's worth in terms of debt payments and workers' remittances. These factors, in turn, can cascade through domestic wages, prices, output, and employment. The exchange rate serves as a pivotal link between a country and the global stage, impacting both goods and asset markets. It shapes the volumes of exports and imports by altering their relative prices and influences the magnitude of foreign debt when measured in domestic currency terms. In contemporary times, the exchange rate has assumed a strategic role, as observed by Rabia Najaf in 2017. The real exchange rate directly influences trade, particularly international trade, and indirectly affects production and employment. Thus, comprehending the factors driving its fluctuations becomes imperative. Moreover, in international financial markets, expectations regarding future exchange rates exert profound effects on various aspects of agents' decisions, including their choices related to investment, hedging, borrowing, and lending, as highlighted by William in 2007. Since the dissolution of the Bretton Woods System, the dynamics of exchange rates have evolved significantly.

The Real Exchange Rate and Economic Growth

The Real Exchange Rate and Economic Growth
Author: Martin Rapetti
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 2011
Genre:
ISBN:

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Recent research has found a positive relationship between real exchange rate (RER) undervaluation and economic growth. Different rationales for this association have been offered, but they all imply that the mechanisms involved should be stronger in developing countries. Rodrik (2008) explicitly analyzed and found evidence that the RER-growth relationship is more prevalent in developing countries. We show that his finding is very sensitive to the criterion used to divide the sample between developed and developing countries. We then use alternative classification criteria and empirical strategies to evaluate the existence of asymmetries between groups of countries and find that the effect of currency undervaluation on growth is indeed larger and more robust for developing economies. However, the relationship between RER undervaluation and per capita GDP is non-monotonic

Trade and Development

Trade and Development
Author: D.K. Das
Publisher: Deep and Deep Publications
Total Pages: 522
Release: 1998
Genre: Business
ISBN: 9788176290524

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Contributed articles.

Managing the Macroeconomy

Managing the Macroeconomy
Author: Ramkishen S. Rajan
Publisher: Springer
Total Pages: 226
Release: 2015-08-04
Genre: Political Science
ISBN: 1137534141

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While offering many growth-enhancing opportunities, India's ever-increasing integration with the world economy has given rise to a host of new challenges in managing the economy. This book provides an up-to-date empirical assessment of some of India's crucial policy challenges pertaining to its monetary and external sector management.

Evolution and Performance of Exchange Rate Regimes

Evolution and Performance of Exchange Rate Regimes
Author: Mr.Kenneth Rogoff
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 85
Release: 2003-12-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1451875843

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Using recent advances in the classification of exchange rate regimes, this paper finds no support for the popular bipolar view that countries will tend over time to move to the polar extremes of free float or rigid peg. Rather, intermediate regimes have shown remarkable durability. The analysis suggests that as economies mature, the value of exchange rate flexibility rises. For countries at a relatively early stage of financial development and integration, fixed or relatively rigid regimes appear to offer some anti-inflation credibility gain without compromising growth objectives. As countries develop economically and institutionally, there appear to be considerable benefits to more flexible regimes. For developed countries that are not in a currency union, relatively flexible exchange rate regimes appear to offer higher growth without any cost in credibility.

Indian Economic Review

Indian Economic Review
Author:
Publisher:
Total Pages: 264
Release: 2006
Genre: Economics
ISBN:

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Real Exchange Rate Movements in Developed and Developing Economies

Real Exchange Rate Movements in Developed and Developing Economies
Author: Taya Dumrongrittikul
Publisher:
Total Pages: 208
Release: 2013
Genre:
ISBN:

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The aim of this thesis is to combine economic theory and empirical analysis in an effort to understand the dynamic effects of real exchange rate determinants, policies and global factors on real exchange rates. This thesis comprises three related essays.The first essay examines the validity of the Balassa-Samuelson hypothesis (BSH). This study introduces a new approach for classifying traded and non-traded industries which allows for country-specific heterogeneity and trade endogeneity, and then uses this classification in the construction of a model that allows for the Balassa-Samuelson effect. We find that in developed countries, productivity growth in traded sectors leads to a real depreciation, inconsistent with the BSH; however, higher economic growth will be followed by a real appreciation. The results of developing countries support the BSH, although persistence profiles show slow speeds of convergence.The second essay extends the analysis into a general model of real exchange rates. It investigates the impact of trade liberalisation, productivity growth, monetary policy and government consumption on real exchange rates in four panels of countries consisting of European, non-European developed, Asian developing and non-Asian developing countries. The analysis is based on a panel structural vector error correction model augmented with foreign variables, and a Bayesian approach is used to implement sign restrictions with a penalty function for undertaking impulse response analysis. We find that trade liberalisation generates depreciation and higher government consumption causes persistent appreciation. A contractionary monetary policy shock has only short-run impact on real exchange rates, corresponding to the long-run neutrality of monetary policy. Traded-sector productivity gains cause an impact appreciation in Asian developing countries and lead to persistent appreciation in non-Asian developing countries, whereas the shocks induce long-run depreciation in developed countries, in line with the results in the first essay.The third essay combines the four panels of countries into a Global Vector Autoregressive (GVAR) model to examine how real exchange rates and key macroeconomic variables respond to an oil price shock, a US monetary policy shock and simultaneous shocks to productivity in four large Asian emerging economies. Using a sign restricted impulse response approach, we find that an oil price shock causes a depreciation of the US dollar as well as economic recession and excessive inflation in the global economy. The way in which monetary policy deals with the shock matters for the long-run level of economic activity. An unexpected US monetary tightening causes an appreciation of the US dollar and a fall in real GDP and inflation over the long run. The monetary policy reaction to this change seems to be stronger in developing countries than in developed countries. Simultaneous shocks to traded-sector productivity in China, India, Korea and Indonesia induce a rise in real GDP and currency appreciation in these four countries. Meanwhile, many Asian countries benefit from the shocks with higher productivity and GDP. The value of their currency is likely to appreciate.