Regime-switching Advantage in Statistical Arbitrage Strategies Conditioned on Time Series Momentum and Volatility in Leveraged Exchange Traded Funds

Regime-switching Advantage in Statistical Arbitrage Strategies Conditioned on Time Series Momentum and Volatility in Leveraged Exchange Traded Funds
Author: Nisheeth Saini
Publisher:
Total Pages: 95
Release: 2019
Genre: Econometrics
ISBN:

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The phenomena of volatility decay (also known as time decay) and path dependence in leveraged exchange traded funds (ETF) markets have been documented in the literature. This dissertation examined whether it is possible to exploit these market conditions for leveraged ETF (LETF) trading using statistical arbitrage (StatArb) strategies. The study proposed a regime switching model tailored for LETF markets to predict volatility and time-series momentum in the behavior of the underlying indexes of the LETFs. The study then used this model to test short pair trading strategies on a varied set of commodity LETFs to see if theoretical intuitions informed by these analyses were empirically supported by data. The study also introduced the concept of lag relative expected volatility (LREV) based on inductive learning in a binary classification framework to model upward shocks in expected volatility on any given trading day. The results of this study showed that an active short pair trading strategy in commodity LETFs, conditioned on momentum and volatility, outperforms an unconditioned and passive sell-and-hold StatArb trading strategy on a risk-adjusted basis. This outperformance was, however, found to be present in Sortino ratios only. The study did not find any evidence of outperformance for the active trading strategy in either Sharpe ratios or absolute returns. The results also provided further evidence that LETFs tracking equity indexes are poor candidates for active StatArb trading strategies due to low volatility. Further, the results also indicated that any incremental deterioration in the efficiency of LETF products in rapidly fluctuating markets appears to be mostly attributable to systemic jumps in the implied volatility and less due to any incremental inefficiency in their daily rebalancing process. This finding may be of interest to the regulators. Lastly, the study also provided evidence from the LETF markets for an inverse relationship between volatility and momentum, as established in some recent studies.

A Regime-Switching Relative Value Arbitrage Rule

A Regime-Switching Relative Value Arbitrage Rule
Author: Michael Bock
Publisher:
Total Pages: 6
Release: 2008
Genre:
ISBN:

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The relative value arbitrage rule (quot;pairs tradingquot;) is a well-established speculative investment strategy on financial markets, dating back to the 1980s. Based on relative mispricing between a pair of stocks, pairs trading strategies create excess returns if the spread between two normally comoving stocks is away from its equilibrium path and is assumed to be mean reverting. To overcome the problem of detecting temporary in contrast to longer lasting deviations from spread equilibrium, this paper bridges the literature on Markov regime-switching and the scientific work on statistical arbitrage.

Statistical Arbitrage Opportunities Between Commodity Futures and Commodity Currency Futures

Statistical Arbitrage Opportunities Between Commodity Futures and Commodity Currency Futures
Author: Jan-Philipp Weber
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 2014
Genre:
ISBN:

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This thesis introduces two algorithmic statistical arbitrage trading strategies based on the fixed hedge ratio of the Engle-Granger cointegration regression and the daily forward-looking hedge ratio of the Kalman filter. Both trading strategies have the objective to exploit short-term deviations from the stochastic long-term equilibrium between country-specific commodity currency futures and commodity futures of Australia, Canada, New Zealand and South Africa based on daily futures prices in the time period from 2005 until 2013. The empirical results suggest that the cointegration relationship between commodity currency futures and commodity futures is highly unstable and switches between a non-cointegrated and a cointegrated regime over time. The error correction models show that commodity futures are weakly exogenous and that commodity currency futures mainly react to short-term deviations from the long-term equilibrium. In addition, the Kalman filter reveals that the pair-specific hedge ratios are highly sensitive over time. The thesis demonstrates that both trading strategies are suitable to exploit statistical arbitrage opportunities based on different combinations between the trading threshold and convergence target. However, the profitability of both trading strategies declined out-of-sample owed to the regime switches in the cointegration relationship and the smaller size of the price anomalies. Further research should focus on the time-varying properties of the hedge ratios and the causes for the regime switches in the cointegration relationship including the implementation of non-linear, respectively regime switching models. Also the pair-specific holdings of the portfolios could be optimised and the performance of the trading strategies tested on high frequency data.

Testing Market Efficiency Using Statistical Arbitrage with Applications to Momentum and Value Strategies

Testing Market Efficiency Using Statistical Arbitrage with Applications to Momentum and Value Strategies
Author: S. Hogan
Publisher:
Total Pages: 42
Release: 2003
Genre: Efficient market theory
ISBN:

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Introduces the concept of statistical arbitrage, a long horizon trading opportunity that generates a riskless profit and is designed to exploit persistent anomalies. The authors provide a methodology to test for statistical arbitrage and then empirically investigate whether momentum and value trading strategies constitute statistical arbitrage opportunities.

Stochastic Control and Deep Learning Approaches to High-dimensional Statistical Arbitrage

Stochastic Control and Deep Learning Approaches to High-dimensional Statistical Arbitrage
Author: Jorge Guijarro Ordonez
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 2021
Genre:
ISBN:

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The central problem of this dissertation is the mathematical study of statistical arbitrage in the case of a high-dimensional number of assets, which is analyzed from two complementary approaches. In the first part of the dissertation, we consider the problem from a stochastic control perspective that extends and combines the Avellaneda and Lee model for statistical arbitrage with the classical Merton framework for portfolio theory. In our framework, given a high-dimensional number of assets and a mean-reverting stochastic model for the dynamics of their residuals through a statistical factor model, an investor must decide how to trade the original assets to maximize the expected utility of her terminal wealth in a finite time horizon, while taking into account market frictions and common statistical arbitrage constraints like dollar neutrality. We study continuous-time and discrete-time versions of the trading problem with both exponential utility and a mean-variance objective, and we prove the existence of interpretable analytic or semi-analytic optimal trading strategies through the study of the corresponding Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman partial differential equations. We supplement this theoretical study with extensive Monte Carlo simulations that provide further insight about the qualitative behavior of the found optimal strategies under different parameter regimes. In the second part of the dissertation, we complement the previous study with a general deep-learning framework that mitigates two limitations of the stochastic control approach: strong modeling assumptions on the residual dynamics, and solving the high-dimensional Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equations for more realistic objective functions, models, and constraints. To this end, we frame the residual modeling and trading problems as a double optimal control problem, that we solve numerically by restricting the controls to a series of functional classes that range from classical parametric models to the most advanced neural network architectures adapted to our problem. We test these methods by conducting an extensive out-of-sample empirical study with high-capitalization U.S. equity data over the main families of factor models, which provides a comprehensive analysis of the importance of the different elements of a statistical arbitrage strategy and the gains from machine learning methods.

High Frequency Statistical Arbitrage with Kalman Filter and Markov Chain Monte Carlo

High Frequency Statistical Arbitrage with Kalman Filter and Markov Chain Monte Carlo
Author: Han Xu
Publisher:
Total Pages: 52
Release: 2017
Genre: Commodity futures
ISBN:

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Statistical arbitrage, or sometimes called pairs trading, is an investment strategy which exploits the historical price relationships between two or several assets and profits from relative mispricing. It has a long history in hedge fund industry and variates of this kind of strategies are still profitable nowadays. The idea is simple and the source of the profit has support from fundamentals in economics and pricing theories. However, there are still many difficulties in implementing and testing such strategies in real life, which include how to select pairs, how to estimate hedge ratio, when to enter, when to exit and etc. Due to its proprietary nature, there is very few literature on this subject. This thesis is an attempt to demystify statistical arbitrage in high-frequency settings, using freely available data of Chinese commodity futures. This thesis introduces and discusses the existing research done on this subject. Also, with the help of advanced statistical inference approaches for treating time series, this thesis proposed a new model which generalizes the entire process of creating a profitable statistical arbitrage trading strategy for a given market. Several different approaches are implemented and their simulated performances in the Chinese commodity future market are compared horizontally. Unlike much other existing literature, transaction costs and market frictions have been considered thoroughly in order to make the research result more meaningful. Empirical results show that our new model delivers very competitive performance in online hedge ratio estimation.

Leveraged Exchange-Traded Funds

Leveraged Exchange-Traded Funds
Author: Peter Miu
Publisher: Palgrave Macmillan
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2016-01-05
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9781137478207

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Leveraged Exchange-Traded Funds (LETFs) are publicly-traded funds that promise to provide daily returns that are in a multiple (positive or negative) of the returns on an index. To meet that promise, the funds use leverage, which is typically obtained through derivatives such as futures contracts, forward contracts, and total-return swaps. As of the end of 2012, there were over 250 LETFs in North America with total assets of approximately $32.24 billion. While the amount of assets held by these funds is still small, their popularity continues to grow as their trading volume is significantly larger and much more dynamic than traditional, non-leveraged ETFs. This comprehensive guide to LETFs provides high-level practitioners and researchers with a detailed reference tool for navigating the market and making informed investment decisions. Written from a measured analytical perspective, Miu and Charupat use clear and concise explanations of all important aspects of LETFs, focusing on such key elements as structure, pricing, performance, regulations, taxation, and trading strategies. The first two chapters set the stage for the book by identifying exactly what LETFs are and how they are regulated. The following chapters then look to bridge theory with practice to dive deep into the mechanics, portfolio rebalancing techniques, and daily compounding effects that make investing in these funds so lucrative.

Machine Learning for Algorithmic Trading

Machine Learning for Algorithmic Trading
Author: Stefan Jansen
Publisher: Packt Publishing Ltd
Total Pages: 822
Release: 2020-07-31
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1839216786

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Leverage machine learning to design and back-test automated trading strategies for real-world markets using pandas, TA-Lib, scikit-learn, LightGBM, SpaCy, Gensim, TensorFlow 2, Zipline, backtrader, Alphalens, and pyfolio. Purchase of the print or Kindle book includes a free eBook in the PDF format. Key FeaturesDesign, train, and evaluate machine learning algorithms that underpin automated trading strategiesCreate a research and strategy development process to apply predictive modeling to trading decisionsLeverage NLP and deep learning to extract tradeable signals from market and alternative dataBook Description The explosive growth of digital data has boosted the demand for expertise in trading strategies that use machine learning (ML). This revised and expanded second edition enables you to build and evaluate sophisticated supervised, unsupervised, and reinforcement learning models. This book introduces end-to-end machine learning for the trading workflow, from the idea and feature engineering to model optimization, strategy design, and backtesting. It illustrates this by using examples ranging from linear models and tree-based ensembles to deep-learning techniques from cutting edge research. This edition shows how to work with market, fundamental, and alternative data, such as tick data, minute and daily bars, SEC filings, earnings call transcripts, financial news, or satellite images to generate tradeable signals. It illustrates how to engineer financial features or alpha factors that enable an ML model to predict returns from price data for US and international stocks and ETFs. It also shows how to assess the signal content of new features using Alphalens and SHAP values and includes a new appendix with over one hundred alpha factor examples. By the end, you will be proficient in translating ML model predictions into a trading strategy that operates at daily or intraday horizons, and in evaluating its performance. What you will learnLeverage market, fundamental, and alternative text and image dataResearch and evaluate alpha factors using statistics, Alphalens, and SHAP valuesImplement machine learning techniques to solve investment and trading problemsBacktest and evaluate trading strategies based on machine learning using Zipline and BacktraderOptimize portfolio risk and performance analysis using pandas, NumPy, and pyfolioCreate a pairs trading strategy based on cointegration for US equities and ETFsTrain a gradient boosting model to predict intraday returns using AlgoSeek's high-quality trades and quotes dataWho this book is for If you are a data analyst, data scientist, Python developer, investment analyst, or portfolio manager interested in getting hands-on machine learning knowledge for trading, this book is for you. This book is for you if you want to learn how to extract value from a diverse set of data sources using machine learning to design your own systematic trading strategies. Some understanding of Python and machine learning techniques is required.

Trading Volatility

Trading Volatility
Author: Colin Bennett
Publisher:
Total Pages: 316
Release: 2014-08-17
Genre:
ISBN: 9781461108757

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This publication aims to fill the void between books providing an introduction to derivatives, and advanced books whose target audience are members of quantitative modelling community. In order to appeal to the widest audience, this publication tries to assume the least amount of prior knowledge. The content quickly moves onto more advanced subjects in order to concentrate on more practical and advanced topics. "A master piece to learn in a nutshell all the essentials about volatility with a practical and lively approach. A must read!" Carole Bernard, Equity Derivatives Specialist at Bloomberg "This book could be seen as the 'volatility bible'!" Markus-Alexander Flesch, Head of Sales & Marketing at Eurex "I highly recommend this book both for those new to the equity derivatives business, and for more advanced readers. The balance between theory and practice is struck At-The-Money" Paul Stephens, Head of Institutional Marketing at CBOE "One of the best resources out there for the volatility community" Paul Britton, CEO and Founder of Capstone Investment Advisors "Colin has managed to convey often complex derivative and volatility concepts with an admirable simplicity, a welcome change from the all-too-dense tomes one usually finds on the subject" Edmund Shing PhD, former Proprietary Trader at BNP Paribas "In a crowded space, Colin has supplied a useful and concise guide" Gary Delany, Director Europe at the Options Industry Council