Rebalancing China's Economy: What Does Growth Theory Tell Us?

Rebalancing China's Economy: What Does Growth Theory Tell Us?
Author: Jahangir Aziz
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 40
Release: 2006-12
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN:

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This paper uses the standard one-sector neoclassical growth model to investigate why China's consumption has been low and investment high. It finds that the low cost of capital has been quantitatively an important factor. Theory predicts that the price of capital may have been significantly distorted in the 1990s and 2000s. The distortion could have been caused by nonperforming loans, borrowing constraints, and uncertainty over changes in government guidance in bank lending. If China is to rebalance growth towards relying more on consumption and less on exports and investment, banking sector reforms and financial market development could, therefore, turn out to be key.

Rebalancing and Sustaining Growth in China

Rebalancing and Sustaining Growth in China
Author: Huw McKay
Publisher: ANU E Press
Total Pages: 386
Release: 2012-07-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1921862807

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The idea that China’s economy needs to rebalance is no longer controversial inside or outside the country. Whether it be the increasing recognition of income inequality at home; the still large external surplus; the focus on consumption and industrial upgrading in the policy discourse; the economic, political and social tensions associated with the major decline in housing affordability; the profound conflict between industrialisation, urbanisation and the biosphere; the profitability gulf between the top SOEs and private firms; or the uni-directional pressures pushing on the real exchange rate; the evidence in favour of a highly imbalanced structure is omnipresent. Rebalancing and Sustaining Growth in China brings together some of the world’s leading observers of the Chinese economy to debate the multifarious questions pertaining to rebalancing. How are we to make sense of the many, often contradictory, proposals that seek the same ultimate objective of a more sustainable growth model? What mix of policies will be most effective in addressing the required structural change without sacrificing prosperity along the way? Where should we look for root causes, and how can we avoid getting distracted by symptoms? How do China’s unique internal migration dynamics – and the Lewis turning point – constrain its options? What role will and should financial, fiscal and welfare reform play in the process? Where do water and energy security fit in? Can China innovate before it gets old – or can China get smart before it gets rich? And are intergenerational issues being taken into account?

China's Economy in Transition

China's Economy in Transition
Author: Mr.Anoop Singh
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 292
Release: 2013-11-07
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1484303938

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China's current account surplus has declined to around one-quarter the peak reached before the global financial crisis. While this is a major reduction in China's external imbalance, it has not been accompanied by a decisive shift toward consumption-based growth. Instead, the compression in its external surplus has been accomplished through increasing fixed investment so that it is now an even higher share of China's national economy. This increasing reliance on fixed investment as the main driver of China's growth raises questions about the durability of the compression in the external surplus and the sustainability of the current growth model that has had unprecedented success in lifting about 500 million people out of poverty over the last three decades. This volume examines various aspects of the rebalancing process underway in China, highlighting policy lessons for achieving stable, sustainable, and inclusive growth.

Sustaining China's Economic Growth After the Global Financial Crisis

Sustaining China's Economic Growth After the Global Financial Crisis
Author: Nicholas R. Lardy
Publisher: Peterson Institute
Total Pages: 310
Release: 2011-12-15
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 088132633X

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The global financial crisis and ensuing economic downturn has raised many questions concerning the future of global economic growth. Prior to the financial crisis, global growth was characterized by growing imbalances, reflected primarily in large trade surpluses in China, Japan, Germany, and the oil exporting countries and rapidly growing deficits, primarily in the United States. The global crisis raises the question of whether the previous growth model of low consumption, high saving countries such as China is obsolete. Although a strong and rapid policy response beginning in the early fall of 2008 made China the first globally significant economy to come off the bottom and begin to grow more rapidly, critics charged that China's recovery was based on the old growth model, relying primarily on burgeoning investment in the short run and the expectation of a revival of expanding net exports once global recovery gained traction. Critics, however, argued that as government-financed investment inevitably tapered off, the likelihood was that global recovery would not be sufficiently strong for China's exports to resume their former role as a major contributor to China's economic expansion. The prospect, in the eyes of these critics, is that China's growth will inevitably falter. This study examines China's response to the global crisis, the prospects for altering the model of economic growth that dominated the first decade of this century, and the implications for the United States and the global economy of successful Chinese rebalancing. On the first it analyzes the strengths and weaknesses of China's stimulus program. On the second it analyzes the nature of origins of the imbalances in China's economy and the array of policy options that the government has to transition to more consumption-driven growth. On the third successful rebalancing would mean that more rapid growth of consumption would offset the drag on growth from a shrinkage of China's external surplus. Successful rebalancing would mean China would no longer be a source of financing for any ongoing US external deficit. From a global perspective China would no longer be a source of the global economic imbalances that contributed to the recent global financial crisis and great recession.

Avoiding the Fall

Avoiding the Fall
Author: Michael Pettis
Publisher:
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2013
Genre: China
ISBN: 9780870034077

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It is increasingly accepted that China's growth model, which served it very well in the 1980s and 90s, reached its useful limit during the past decade. As a result, although China continued to post spectacular GDP growth numbers, this growth came with a cost - unsustainable imbalances and even faster growth in debt. With China's new generation of leaders formally taking power in early 2013, it clearly must restructure its development model to achieve a very different kind of growth. A Chinese rebalancing is inevitable and the most interesting question is how it will occur. In Restructuring the Chinese Economy, Michael Pettis outlines six paths that China can follow - the only logical paths that lead ultimately to rebalancing - and discusses the political and economic strengths and limitations of each. These paths range from debt crisis and negative growth, at one extreme, to a massive wealth transfer from the state to Chinese households, with steady growth for many years, at the other. How Beijing chooses will determine China's position in the world for the rest of the century.

China 2049

China 2049
Author: David Dollar
Publisher: Brookings Institution Press
Total Pages: 444
Release: 2020-06-09
Genre: Political Science
ISBN: 0815738064

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How will China reform its economy as it aspires to become the next economic superpower? It's clear that China is the world's next economic superpower. But what isn't so clear is how China will get there by the middle of this century. It now faces tremendous challenges such as fostering innovation, dealing with ageing problem and coping with a less accommodative global environment. In this book, economists from China's leading university and America's best-known think tank offer in depth analyses of these challenges. Does China have enough talent and right policy and institutional mix to transit from input-driven to innovation-driven economy? What does ageing mean, in terms of labor supply, consumption demand and social welfare expenditure? Can China contain the environmental and climate change risks? How should the financial system be transformed in order to continuously support economic growth and keep financial risks under control? What fiscal reforms are required in order to balance between economic efficiency and social harmony? What roles should the state-owned enterprises play in the future Chinese economy? In addition, how will technological competition between the United States and China affect each country's development? Will the Chinese yuan emerge as a major reserve currency, and would this destabilize the international financial system? What will be China's role in the international economic institutions? And will the United States and other established powers accept a growing role for China and the rest of the developing world in the governance of global institutions such as the World Trade Organization and the International Monetary Fund, or will the world devolve into competing blocs? This book provides unique insights into independent analyses and policy recommendations by a group of top Chinese and American scholars. Whether China succeeds or fails in economic reform will have a large impact, not just on China's development, but also on stability and prosperity for the whole world.

Chinese Economic Development

Chinese Economic Development
Author: Yinxing Hong
Publisher: Routledge
Total Pages: 286
Release: 2021-07-09
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1000399184

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The book provides a meticulous analysis of economic development and concomitant problems in China since the late 1970s and advances suggestions on further economic modernisation and transition from both theoretical and practical angles. Based on theories from development economics and solid empirical studies, the authors, two renowned Chinese economists, provide a perceptive analysis of the Chinese development model in the post-Mao era. They shed light on questions that have perplexed many: How can China sustain the rapid growth of the past 40 years? Is there a unique "China path" to economic progress? They argue compellingly that China’s development model has to switch from a manufacturing-driven one to a brand-new approach, centring on scientific and technical innovation and the integration of its existing economic structure into an increasingly complex global economy. Such transformation will help overcome the "middle-income trap" while addressing other institutional and economic challenges. The book will appeal to students, scholars and policymakers interested in the Chinese and global economies, as well as transnational studies in the post-COVID-19 world. General readers willing to obtain a grasp of Chinese economic development from the insider’s perspective will also find it useful.