Predicting the Unpredictable

Predicting the Unpredictable
Author: Susan Elizabeth Hough
Publisher: Princeton University Press
Total Pages: 276
Release: 2016-11-08
Genre: Science
ISBN: 0691173303

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An earthquake can strike without warning and wreak horrific destruction and death, whether it's the catastrophic 2010 quake that took a devastating toll on the island nation of Haiti or a future great earthquake on the San Andreas Fault in California, which scientists know is inevitable. Yet despite rapid advances in earthquake science, seismologists still can’t predict when the Big One will hit. Predicting the Unpredictable explains why, exploring the fact and fiction behind the science—and pseudoscience—of earthquake prediction. Susan Hough traces the continuing quest by seismologists to forecast the time, location, and magnitude of future quakes. She brings readers into the laboratory and out into the field—describing attempts that have raised hopes only to collapse under scrutiny, as well as approaches that seem to hold future promise. She also ventures to the fringes of pseudoscience to consider ideas outside the scientific mainstream. An entertaining and accessible foray into the world of earthquake prediction, Predicting the Unpredictable illuminates the unique challenges of predicting earthquakes.

Rock Breaks Scissors

Rock Breaks Scissors
Author: William Poundstone
Publisher: Little, Brown Spark
Total Pages: 266
Release: 2014-06-03
Genre: Psychology
ISBN: 0316228087

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A practical guide to outguessing everything, from multiple-choice tests to the office football pool to the stock market. People are predictable even when they try not to be. William Poundstone demonstrates how to turn this fact to personal advantage in scores of everyday situations, from playing the lottery to buying a home. Rock Breaks Scissors is mind-reading for real life. Will the next tennis serve go right or left? Will the market go up or down? Most people are poor at that kind of predicting. We are hard-wired to make bum bets on "trends" and "winning streaks" that are illusions. Yet ultimately we're all in the business of anticipating the actions of others. Poundstone reveals how to overcome the errors and improve the accuracy of your own outguessing. Rock Breaks Scissors is a hands-on guide to turning life's odds in your favor.

The Physics of Wall Street

The Physics of Wall Street
Author: James Owen Weatherall
Publisher: Houghton Mifflin Harcourt
Total Pages: 309
Release: 2013
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0547317271

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A young scholar tells the story of the physicists and mathematicians who created the models that have become the basis of modern finance and argues that these models are the "solution" to--not the source of--our current economic woes.

The Physics of Finance

The Physics of Finance
Author: James Owen Weatherall
Publisher: Short Books
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2013
Genre: Forecasting
ISBN: 9781780721392

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A book which reveals the people and ideas on the cusp of a new era in finance.

Software Estimation Without Guessing

Software Estimation Without Guessing
Author: George Dinwiddie
Publisher: Pragmatic Bookshelf
Total Pages: 308
Release: 2019-12-19
Genre: Computers
ISBN: 1680507419

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Estimating software development often produces more angst than value, but it doesn't have to. Identify the needs behind estimate requests and determine how to meet those needs simply and easily. Choose estimation techniques based on current needs and available information, gaining benefit while reducing cost and effort. Detect bad assumptions that might sink your project if you don't adjust your plans. Discover what to do when an estimate is wrong, how to recover, and how to use that knowledge for future planning. Learn to communicate about estimates in a healthy and productive way, maximizing advantage to the organization and minimizing damage to the people. In a world where most developers hate estimation and most managers fear disappointment with the results, there is hope for both. It requires giving up some widely held misconceptions. Let go of the notion that "an estimate is an estimate" and estimate for the particular need you, and your organization, have. Realize that estimates have a limited shelf-life, and reestimate frequently if it's important. When reality differs from your estimate, don't lament; mine that disappointment for the gold that can be the longer-term jackpot. Estimate in comparison to past experience, by modeling the work mathematically, or a hybrid of both. Learn strategies for effective decomposition of work and aspects of the work that likely affect your estimates. Hedge your bets by comparing the results of different approaches. Find out what to do when an estimate proves wrong. And they will. They're estimates, after all. You'll discover that you can use estimates to warn you of danger so you can take appropriate action in time. Learn some crucial techniques to understand and communicate with those who need to understand. Address both the technical and sociological aspects of estimation, and you'll help your organization achieve its desired goals with less drama and more benefit. What You Need: No software needed, just your past experience and concern for the outcomes.

Predicting the Unpredictable

Predicting the Unpredictable
Author: Elizabeth A. Kay
Publisher:
Total Pages: 44
Release: 1978
Genre: Lithography, American
ISBN:

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Why We Buy

Why We Buy
Author: Paco Underhill
Publisher: Simon and Schuster
Total Pages: 322
Release: 2009
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1416595244

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Guide to ever-evolving consumer culture, offering advice on how to keep current customers and attract new ones.

Do Lunch Or be Lunch

Do Lunch Or be Lunch
Author: Howard H. Stevenson
Publisher: H B S Press
Total Pages: 294
Release: 1998
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9780875847979

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Explains how to refine predictive skills, make decisions, measure risk, understand conflict, and improve human interactions

Looking Forward

Looking Forward
Author: Jamie L. Pietruska
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
Total Pages: 295
Release: 2017-12-08
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 022647500X

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Introduction: crisis of certainty -- Cotton guesses -- The daily "probabilities"--Weather prophecies -- Economies of the future -- Promises of love and money -- Epilogue: specters of uncertainty

Predicting Personality

Predicting Personality
Author: Drew D'Agostino
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Total Pages: 249
Release: 2019-11-12
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1119630967

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The ultimate playbook for using artificial intelligence to communicate effectively, build teams, and win customers Not long ago, we imagined a hyper-connected world full of trust and openness—a world where effortless communication would bring about a new understanding between people everywhere. Judging from our current environment, this vision of the future may have been overly optimistic. With infinite channels and countless voices flooding them with messages, most people have become highly skeptical and guarded by necessity. As a result, communication is much harder than ever before. Despite the unprecedented connectivity enabled by modern technology, we are far less likely to trust and to invest the time needed to build strong relationships. How can we use technology to reverse this trend? A groundbreaking new branch of artificial intelligence—Personality AI—may be the answer. Combining traditional machine learning, data analytics, and behavioral psychology, Personality AI helps professional communicators tear down walls, establish trust with their audiences, and utilize data to build meaningful relationships, strengthen empathy, and win more customers. Predicting Personality is a practical, real-world playbook for any individual or business whose success hinges on the ability to communicate effectively and build teams. Authors Drew D’Agostino and Greg Skloot—CEO and President, respectively, of Crystal, the app that tells you anyone's personality—show you how businesses can leverage Personality AI and machine learning to grow faster and communicate more effectively than was previously possible. This reader-friendly guide teaches you what Personality AI is, how it works, and demonstrates its practical applications in both life and business. This book: ● Explains how to understand personality types in various contexts, including sales, recruiting, coaching ● Provides guidelines for using personality data to learn and execute ● Explores ethics and compliance considerations surrounding the use of Personality AI ● Offers valuable insights from a leader in the business applications of Personality AI Predicting Personality: Using AI to Understand People and Win More Business is a must-have guide for C-suite executives, sales and marketing professionals, coaches, recruiters, and business owners.