Predicting the Poverty Impacts of Trade Reform

Predicting the Poverty Impacts of Trade Reform
Author: Thomas Warren Hertel
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Total Pages: 42
Release: 2004
Genre: Commercial policy
ISBN: 1217172335

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"An important area of research in recent years involves assessing the microeconomic implications of macro-level policies--particularly those related to international trade. While a wide range of research methodologies are available for assessing the microeconomic incidence of micro-policies, as well as for assessing the effect of macro-level policies on markets and broad groups of households, there is a gap when it comes to eliciting the disaggregated household and firm level effects of trade policies. Recent research addresses this knowledge gap and the present survey offers an overview of this literature. The preponderance of the evidence from the studies encompassed by this survey points to the dominance of earnings-side effects over consumption-side effects of trade reform. This is problematic, since household surveys are notable for their underreporting of income. From the perspective of the poor, it is the market for unskilled labor that is most important. The poverty effects of trade policy often hinge crucially on how well the increased demand for labor in one part of the economy is transmitted to the rest of the economy by way of increased wages, increased employment, or both. Further econometric research aimed at discriminating between competing factor mobility hypotheses is urgently needed. This paper--a product of the Trade Team, Development Research Group--is part of a larger effort in the group to assess the poverty impacts of trade policies"--World Bank web site.

Predicting the Poverty Impacts of Trade Reform

Predicting the Poverty Impacts of Trade Reform
Author: Thomas W. Hertel
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 2013
Genre:
ISBN:

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An important area of research in recent years involves assessing the microeconomic implications of macro-level policies??? particularly those related to international trade. While a wide range of research methodologies are available for assessing the microeconomic incidence of micro-policies, as well as for assessing the effect of macro-level policies on markets and broad groups of households, there is a gap when it comes to eliciting the disaggregated household and firm level effects of trade policies. Recent research addresses this knowledge gap and the present survey offers an overview of this literature. The preponderance of the evidence from the studies encompassed by this survey points to the dominance of earnings-side effects over consumption-side effects of trade reform. This is problematic, since household surveys are notable for their underreporting of income. From the perspective of the poor, it is the market for unskilled labor that is most important. The poverty effects of trade policy often hinge crucially on how well the increased demand for labor in one part of the economy is transmitted to the rest of the economy by way of increased wages, increased employment, or both. Further econometric research aimed at discriminating between competing factor mobility hypotheses is urgently needed.

Predicting the Poverty Impacts of Trade Reform

Predicting the Poverty Impacts of Trade Reform
Author: Thomas W. Hertel
Publisher:
Total Pages: 42
Release: 2016
Genre:
ISBN:

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An important area of research in recent years involves assessing the microeconomic implications of macro-level policies - particularly those related to international trade. While a wide range of research methodologies are available for assessing the microeconomic incidence of micro-policies, as well as for assessing the effect of macro-level policies on markets and broad groups of households, there is a gap when it comes to eliciting the disaggregated household and firm level effects of trade policies. Recent research addresses this knowledge gap and the present survey offers an overview of this literature.The preponderance of the evidence from the studies encompassed by this survey points to the dominance of earnings-side effects over consumption-side effects of trade reform. This is problematic, since household surveys are notable for their underreporting of income. From the perspective of the poor, it is the market for unskilled labor that is most important. The poverty effects of trade policy often hinge crucially on how well the increased demand for labor in one part of the economy is transmitted to the rest of the economy by way of increased wages, increased employment, or both. Further econometric research aimed at discriminating between competing factor mobility hypotheses is urgently needed.This paper - a product of the Trade Team, Development Research Group - is part of a larger effort in the group to assess the poverty impacts of trade policies.

Looking Beyond Averages in the Trade and Poverty Debate

Looking Beyond Averages in the Trade and Poverty Debate
Author: Martin Ravallion
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Total Pages: 39
Release: 2004
Genre: China
ISBN:

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"There has been much debate about how much poor people in developing countries gain from trade openness, as one aspect of 'globalization.' Ravallion views the issue through both 'macro' and 'micro' empirical lenses. The macro lens uses cross-country comparisons and aggregate time series data. The micro lens uses household-level data combined with structural modeling of the impacts of specific trade reforms. The author presents case studies for China and Morocco. Both the macro and micro approaches cast doubt on some wide generalizations from both sides of the globalization debate. Additionally the micro lens indicates considerable heterogeneity in the welfare impacts of trade openness, with both gainers and losers among the poor. The author identifies a number of covariates of the individual gains. The results point to the importance of combining trade reforms with well-designed social protection policies." -- Cover verso.

Globalization and Poverty

Globalization and Poverty
Author: Ann Harrison
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
Total Pages: 674
Release: 2007-11-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0226318001

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Over the past two decades, the percentage of the world’s population living on less than a dollar a day has been cut in half. How much of that improvement is because of—or in spite of—globalization? While anti-globalization activists mount loud critiques and the media report breathlessly on globalization’s perils and promises, economists have largely remained silent, in part because of an entrenched institutional divide between those who study poverty and those who study trade and finance. Globalization and Poverty bridges that gap, bringing together experts on both international trade and poverty to provide a detailed view of the effects of globalization on the poor in developing nations, answering such questions as: Do lower import tariffs improve the lives of the poor? Has increased financial integration led to more or less poverty? How have the poor fared during various currency crises? Does food aid hurt or help the poor? Poverty, the contributors show here, has been used as a popular and convenient catchphrase by parties on both sides of the globalization debate to further their respective arguments. Globalization and Poverty provides the more nuanced understanding necessary to move that debate beyond the slogans.

The Poverty Impacts of Global Commodity Trade Liberalization

The Poverty Impacts of Global Commodity Trade Liberalization
Author: Thomas W. Hertel
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 2009
Genre:
ISBN:

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This paper examines the poverty impacts of global merchandise trade reform by looking at a wide range of developing countries in Africa, Asia and Latin America. Overall, the authors find that trade reform tends to reduce poverty primarily through the inclusion of agricultural components. The majority of developing country sample experiences small poverty increases from non-agricultural reforms. The authors explore the relative poverty-friendliness of agricultural trade reforms in detail, examining the differential impacts on real after-tax factor returns of agricultural versus non-agricultural reforms. This analysis is extended to the distribution of households by looking at stratum-specific poverty changes. The author's findings indicate that the more favorable impacts of agricultural reforms are driven by increased returns to peasant farm households' labor as well as higher returns for unskilled wage labor. Finally, the authors examine the commodity-specific poverty impacts of trade reform for this sample of countries. The authors find that liberalization of food grains and other processed foods represent the largest contributions to poverty reduction. More specifically, it is tariff reform in these commodity markets that dominates the poverty increasing impacts of wealthy country subsidy removal.

The Impact of Macroeconomic Policies on Poverty and Income Distribution

The Impact of Macroeconomic Policies on Poverty and Income Distribution
Author: François Bourguignon
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Total Pages: 362
Release: 2008-01-01
Genre: Political Science
ISBN: 0821357794

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A companion to the bestseller, The Impact of Economic Policies on Poverty and Income Distribution, this title deals with theoretical challenges and cutting-edge macro-micro linkage models. The authors compare the predictive and analytical power of various macro-micro linkage techniques using the traditional RHG approach as a benchmark to evaluate standard policies, such as, a typical stabilization package and a typical structural reform policy.

Gainers and Losers from Trade Reform in Morocco

Gainers and Losers from Trade Reform in Morocco
Author: Martin Ravallion
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Total Pages: 48
Release: 2004
Genre: Free trade
ISBN:

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"Ravallion and Lokshin use Morocco's national survey of living standards to measure the short-term welfare impacts of prior estimates of the price changes attributed to various trade policy reforms for cereals - the country's main foodstaple. They find small impacts on mean consumption and inequality in the aggregate. There are both gainers and losers and (contrary to past claims) the rural poor are worse off on average after trade policy reforms. The authors decompose the aggregate impact on inequality into a vertical component (between people at different pre-reform welfare levels) and a horizontal component (between people at the same pre-reform welfare level). There is a large horizontal component which dominates the vertical impact of full de-protection. The diverse impacts reflect a degree of observable heterogeneity in consumption behavior and income sources, with implications for social protection policies. This paper -a product of the Poverty Team, Development Research Group - is part of a larger effort in the group to assess the distributional impact of economywide policy reforms"-- World Bank web site.