Output Gap Measurement
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Author | : Mr.Jiaqian Chen |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 28 |
Release | : 2020-02-07 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 151352786X |
Download Measuring Output Gap: Is It Worth Your Time? Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle
We apply a range of models to the U.K. data to obtain estimates of the output gap. A structural VAR with an appropriate identification strategy provides improved estimates of output gap with better real time properties and lower sensitivity to temporary shocks than the usual filtering techniques. It also produces smaller out-of-sample forecast errors for inflation. At the same time, however, our results suggest caution in basing policy decisions on output gap estimates.
Author | : Ali Alichi |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 17 |
Release | : 2015-06-30 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1513523465 |
Download A New Methodology for Estimating the Output Gap in the United States Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle
The gap between potential and actual output—the output gap—is a key variable for policymaking. This paper adapts the methodology developed in Blagrave and others (2015) to estimate the path of output gap in the U.S. economy. The results show that the output gap has considerably shrunk since the Great Recession, but still remains negative. While the results are more robust than other existing methodologies, there is still significant uncertainty surrounding the estimates.
Author | : Pierre St.-Amant |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 62 |
Release | : 1997 |
Genre | : Banks and banking |
ISBN | : 9780662260196 |
Download Measurement of the Output Gap Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle
This paper discusses some methodologies for estimating potential output and the output gap that have recently been studied at the Bank of Canada. The assumptions and econometric techniques used by the different methodologies are discussed in turn, and applications to Canadian data are presented. The first group of methods considered are those that simply use some implicit or explicit assumptions about the dynamics of real output to identify the output gap, including the Hodrick and Prescott filter for identifying the cyclical component of output. The second group consists of approaches that combine their assumptions with information from assumed or structural relationships between the output gap and other economic variables. The third class of methods uses multivariate rather than univariate dynamic relationships, often in combination with structural relationships from economic theory, to estimate output gap as a particular transitory component of real output.
Author | : Michal Andrle |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 45 |
Release | : 2013-05-10 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1484399552 |
Download What Is in Your Output Gap? Unified Framework & Decomposition into Observables Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle
This paper discusses several popular methods to estimate the ‘output gap’. It provides a unified, natural concept for the analysis, and demonstrates how to decompose the output gap into contributions of observed data on output, inflation, unemployment, and other variables. A simple bar-chart of contributing factors, in the case of multi-variable methods, sharpens the intuition behind the estimates and ultimately shows ‘what is in your output gap.’ The paper demonstrates how to interpret effects of data revisions and new data releases for output gap estimates (news effects) and how to obtain more insight into real-time properties of estimators.
Author | : International Monetary Fund |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 39 |
Release | : 2010-12-01 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1455210927 |
Download Estimating Potential Output with a Multivariate Filter Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle
This paper develops a simple model for measuring potential output that uses data on inflation, unemployment, and capacity utilization. We apply the model to 10 countries, in addition to the United States and the euro area. While there is a substantial amount of uncertainty around our estimates, we find that the financial crisis has resulted in a reduction in potential output.
Author | : Jamie P. Murray |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 54 |
Release | : 2014 |
Genre | : Business cycles |
ISBN | : |
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Author | : Mr.Niels-Jakob H Hansen |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 23 |
Release | : 2019-08-02 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1513511130 |
Download Labor Market Slack and the Output Gap: The Case of Korea Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle
Output gap estimates are widely used to inform macroeconomic policy decisions, including in Korea. The main determinant of these estimates is the measure of labor market slack. The traditional measure of unemployment in Korea yields an incomplete estimate of labor market slack, given that many workers prefer involuntary part-time jobs or leaving the labor force rather than registering as unemployed. This paper discusses a way in which the measure of unemployment can be broadened to yield a more accurate measure of labor market slack. This broader measure is then used to estimate the output gap using a multivariate filter, yielding a more meaningful measure of the output gap.
Author | : Iris Claus |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 72 |
Release | : 2000 |
Genre | : Business cycles |
ISBN | : |
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Author | : Andreas Billmeier |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 42 |
Release | : 2004-04 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : |
Download Measuring a Roller Coaster Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle
The output gap-which measures the deviation of actual output from its potential-is frequently used as an indicator of slack in an economy. This paper estimates the Finnish output gap using various empirical methods. It evaluates these methods against economic history and each other by a simulated out-of-sample forecasting exercise for Finnish CPI inflation. Only two gap measures, stemming from a frequency domain approach and the Blanchard-Quah decomposition, perform better than the naïve prediction of no change in inflation-but do not improve upon a simple autoregressive forecast. The pronounced volatility of output in Finland makes it particularly difficult to estimate potential output, producing considerable uncertainty about the size (and sign) of the gap.
Author | : Anton Cheremukhin |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 26 |
Release | : 2013 |
Genre | : Banks and banking |
ISBN | : |
Download Estimating the Output Gap in Real Time Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle
I propose a novel method of estimating the potential level of U.S. GDP in real time. The proposed wage-based measure of economic potential remains virtually unchanged when new data are released. The distance between current and potential output--the output gap--satisfies Okun's law and outperforms many other measures of slack in forecasting inflation. Thus, I provide a robust statistical tool useful for understanding current economic conditions and guiding policymaking.