Optimal Multi-Step VAR Forecasting Averaging

Optimal Multi-Step VAR Forecasting Averaging
Author: Jen-Che Liao
Publisher:
Total Pages: 54
Release: 2018
Genre:
ISBN:

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This paper proposes frequentist multiple-equation least squares averaging approaches for multi-step forecasting with vector autoregressive (VAR) models. The proposed VAR forecasting averaging methods are based on the multivariate Mallows model averaging (MMMA) and multivariate leave-h-out cross-validation averaging (MCVAh) criteria (with h denoting the forecast horizon), which are valid for iterative and direct multi-step forecasting averaging, respectively. Under the framework of stationary VAR processes of infinite order, we provide theoretical justifications by establishing asymptotic unbiasedness and asymptotic optimality of the proposed forecasting averaging approaches. Specifically, MMMA exhibits asymptotic optimality for one-step ahead forecast averaging, whereas for direct multi-step forecasting averaging the asymptotically optimal combination weights are determined separately for each forecast horizon based on the MCVAh procedure. The finite-sample behaviour of the proposed averaging procedures under misspecification is investigated via simulation experiments. An empirical application to a three-variable monetary VAR, based on the U.S. data, is also provided to present our methodology.

Forecasting: principles and practice

Forecasting: principles and practice
Author: Rob J Hyndman
Publisher: OTexts
Total Pages: 380
Release: 2018-05-08
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0987507117

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Forecasting is required in many situations. Stocking an inventory may require forecasts of demand months in advance. Telecommunication routing requires traffic forecasts a few minutes ahead. Whatever the circumstances or time horizons involved, forecasting is an important aid in effective and efficient planning. This textbook provides a comprehensive introduction to forecasting methods and presents enough information about each method for readers to use them sensibly.

Forecasting for Economics and Business

Forecasting for Economics and Business
Author: Gloria González-Rivera
Publisher: Routledge
Total Pages: 749
Release: 2016-12-05
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1315510391

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For junior/senior undergraduates in a variety of fields such as economics, business administration, applied mathematics and statistics, and for graduate students in quantitative masters programs such as MBA and MA/MS in economics. A student-friendly approach to understanding forecasting. Knowledge of forecasting methods is among the most demanded qualifications for professional economists, and business people working in either the private or public sectors of the economy. The general aim of this textbook is to carefully develop sophisticated professionals, who are able to critically analyze time series data and forecasting reports because they have experienced the merits and shortcomings of forecasting practice.

Practical Time Series Analysis

Practical Time Series Analysis
Author: Aileen Nielsen
Publisher: O'Reilly Media
Total Pages: 500
Release: 2019-09-20
Genre: Computers
ISBN: 1492041629

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Time series data analysis is increasingly important due to the massive production of such data through the internet of things, the digitalization of healthcare, and the rise of smart cities. As continuous monitoring and data collection become more common, the need for competent time series analysis with both statistical and machine learning techniques will increase. Covering innovations in time series data analysis and use cases from the real world, this practical guide will help you solve the most common data engineering and analysis challengesin time series, using both traditional statistical and modern machine learning techniques. Author Aileen Nielsen offers an accessible, well-rounded introduction to time series in both R and Python that will have data scientists, software engineers, and researchers up and running quickly. You’ll get the guidance you need to confidently: Find and wrangle time series data Undertake exploratory time series data analysis Store temporal data Simulate time series data Generate and select features for a time series Measure error Forecast and classify time series with machine or deep learning Evaluate accuracy and performance

Multivariate Least Squares Forecasting Averaging by Vector Autoregressive Models

Multivariate Least Squares Forecasting Averaging by Vector Autoregressive Models
Author: Jen-Che Liao
Publisher:
Total Pages: 47
Release: 2016
Genre:
ISBN:

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This paper proposes a multivariate least squares Mallows averaging approach to the issue of forecast combination by vector autoregressive (VAR) model fitting. Our approach extends the current literature on frequentist least squares model/forecast averaging methods, in particular Hansen (2008), to multivariate time series models. We provide a theoretical foundation of our approach by presenting the relation between the proposed multivariate Mallows averaging criterion and the in-sample mean squared error and out-of-sample mean squared forecast error. We also establish the asymptotic properties such as unbiasedness and optimality of our approach. In a simulation experiment, the proposed approach performs well in finite samples relative to other selection and averaging methods. For an empirical illustration, we apply our methodology to forecasting U.S. macroeconomic dynamic systems based on small-scale and medium-scale VARs fitted to the datasets that were previously studied by Sims (1980) and Stock and Watson (2009).

Deep Learning for Time Series Forecasting

Deep Learning for Time Series Forecasting
Author: Jason Brownlee
Publisher: Machine Learning Mastery
Total Pages: 572
Release: 2018-08-30
Genre: Computers
ISBN:

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Deep learning methods offer a lot of promise for time series forecasting, such as the automatic learning of temporal dependence and the automatic handling of temporal structures like trends and seasonality. With clear explanations, standard Python libraries, and step-by-step tutorial lessons you’ll discover how to develop deep learning models for your own time series forecasting projects.

Forecasting in the Presence of Structural Breaks and Model Uncertainty

Forecasting in the Presence of Structural Breaks and Model Uncertainty
Author: David E. Rapach
Publisher: Emerald Group Publishing
Total Pages: 691
Release: 2008-02-29
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1849505403

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Forecasting in the presence of structural breaks and model uncertainty are active areas of research with implications for practical problems in forecasting. This book addresses forecasting variables from both Macroeconomics and Finance, and considers various methods of dealing with model instability and model uncertainty when forming forecasts.

Averaging Forecasts from VARs with Uncertain Instabilities

Averaging Forecasts from VARs with Uncertain Instabilities
Author: Todd E. Clark
Publisher:
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2006
Genre: Economic forecasting
ISBN:

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A body of recent work suggests commonly-used VAR models of output, inflation, and interest rates may be prone to instabilities. In the face of such instabilities, a variety of estimation or forecasting methods might be used to improve the accuracy of forecasts from a VAR. These methods include using different approaches to lag selection, different observation windows for estimation, (over-) differencing, intercept correction, stochastically time-varying parameters, break dating, discounted least squares, Bayesian shrinkage, and detrending of inflation and interest rates. Although each individual method could be useful, the uncertainty inherent in any single representation of instability could mean that combining forecasts from the entire range of VAR estimates will further improve forecast accuracy. Focusing on models of U.S. output, prices, and interest rates, this paper examines the effectiveness of combination in improving VAR forecasts made with real-time data. The combinations include simple averages, medians, trimmed means, and a number of weighted combinations, based on: Bates-Granger regressions, factor model estimates, regressions involving just forecast quartiles, Bayesian model averaging, and predictive least squares-based weighting. Our goal is to identify those approaches that, in real time, yield the most accurate forecasts of these variables. We use forecasts from simple univariate time series models and the Survey of Professional Forecasters as benchmarks.

Forecasting for Economics and Business

Forecasting for Economics and Business
Author: Gloria González-Rivera
Publisher: Routledge
Total Pages: 511
Release: 2016-12-05
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1315510405

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For junior/senior undergraduates in a variety of fields such as economics, business administration, applied mathematics and statistics, and for graduate students in quantitative masters programs such as MBA and MA/MS in economics. A student-friendly approach to understanding forecasting. Knowledge of forecasting methods is among the most demanded qualifications for professional economists, and business people working in either the private or public sectors of the economy. The general aim of this textbook is to carefully develop sophisticated professionals, who are able to critically analyze time series data and forecasting reports because they have experienced the merits and shortcomings of forecasting practice.