On Marginal Likelihood Computation in Change-Point Models

On Marginal Likelihood Computation in Change-Point Models
Author: Luc Bauwens
Publisher:
Total Pages: 35
Release: 2017
Genre:
ISBN:

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Change-point models are useful for modeling time series subject to structural breaks. For interpretation and forecasting, it is essential to estimate correctly the number of change points in this class of models. In Bayesian inference, the number of change points is typically chosen by the marginal likelihood criterion, computed by Chib's method. This method requires to select a value in the parameter space at which the computation is performed. Bayesian inference for a change-point dynamic regression model and the computation of its marginal likelihood are explained. Motivated by results from three empirical illustrations, a simulation study shows that Chib's method is robust with respect to the choice of the parameter value used in the computations, among posterior mean, mode and quartiles. However, taking into account the precision of the marginal likelihood estimator, the overall recommendation is to use the posterior mode or median. Furthermore, the performance of the Bayesian information criterion, which is based on maximum likelihood estimates, in selecting the correct model is comparable to that of the marginal likelihood.

Estimations And Tests In Change-point Models

Estimations And Tests In Change-point Models
Author: Odile Pons
Publisher: World Scientific
Total Pages: 305
Release: 2018-05-30
Genre: Mathematics
ISBN: 9813231785

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'This is a solid mathematical treatment of some topics in the analysis of change-point models. The book is intended for graduate students and scientific researchers using statistics in practice.'zbMATHThis book provides a detailed exposition of the specific properties of methods of estimation and test in a wide range of models with changes. They include parametric and nonparametric models for samples, series, point processes and diffusion processes, with changes at the threshold of variables or at a time or an index of sampling.The book contains many new results and fills a gap in statistics literature, where the asymptotic properties of the estimators and test statistics in singular models are not sufficiently developed. It is suitable for graduate students and scientific researchers working in the industry, governmental laboratories and academia.

Handbook of Computational Statistics

Handbook of Computational Statistics
Author: James E. Gentle
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 1180
Release: 2012-07-06
Genre: Computers
ISBN: 3642215513

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The Handbook of Computational Statistics - Concepts and Methods (second edition) is a revision of the first edition published in 2004, and contains additional comments and updated information on the existing chapters, as well as three new chapters addressing recent work in the field of computational statistics. This new edition is divided into 4 parts in the same way as the first edition. It begins with "How Computational Statistics became the backbone of modern data science" (Ch.1): an overview of the field of Computational Statistics, how it emerged as a separate discipline, and how its own development mirrored that of hardware and software, including a discussion of current active research. The second part (Chs. 2 - 15) presents several topics in the supporting field of statistical computing. Emphasis is placed on the need for fast and accurate numerical algorithms, and some of the basic methodologies for transformation, database handling, high-dimensional data and graphics treatment are discussed. The third part (Chs. 16 - 33) focuses on statistical methodology. Special attention is given to smoothing, iterative procedures, simulation and visualization of multivariate data. Lastly, a set of selected applications (Chs. 34 - 38) like Bioinformatics, Medical Imaging, Finance, Econometrics and Network Intrusion Detection highlight the usefulness of computational statistics in real-world applications.

Bayesian Time Series Models

Bayesian Time Series Models
Author: David Barber
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Total Pages: 432
Release: 2011-08-11
Genre: Computers
ISBN: 0521196760

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The first unified treatment of time series modelling techniques spanning machine learning, statistics, engineering and computer science.

Marginal Models

Marginal Models
Author: Wicher Bergsma
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 274
Release: 2009-04-03
Genre: Science
ISBN: 0387096108

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Marginal Models for Dependent, Clustered, and Longitudinal Categorical Data provides a comprehensive overview of the basic principles of marginal modeling and offers a wide range of possible applications. Marginal models are often the best choice for answering important research questions when dependent observations are involved, as the many real world examples in this book show. In the social, behavioral, educational, economic, and biomedical sciences, data are often collected in ways that introduce dependencies in the observations to be compared. For example, the same respondents are interviewed at several occasions, several members of networks or groups are interviewed within the same survey, or, within families, both children and parents are investigated. Statistical methods that take the dependencies in the data into account must then be used, e.g., when observations at time one and time two are compared in longitudinal studies. At present, researchers almost automatically turn to multi-level models or to GEE estimation to deal with these dependencies. Despite the enormous potential and applicability of these recent developments, they require restrictive assumptions on the nature of the dependencies in the data. The marginal models of this book provide another way of dealing with these dependencies, without the need for such assumptions, and can be used to answer research questions directly at the intended marginal level. The maximum likelihood method, with its attractive statistical properties, is used for fitting the models. This book has mainly been written with applied researchers in mind. It includes many real world examples, explains the types of research questions for which marginal modeling is useful, and provides a detailed description of how to apply marginal models for a great diversity of research questions. All these examples are presented on the book's website (www.cmm.st), along with user friendly programs.

An Introduction to Bayesian Inference, Methods and Computation

An Introduction to Bayesian Inference, Methods and Computation
Author: Nick Heard
Publisher: Springer Nature
Total Pages: 177
Release: 2021-10-17
Genre: Mathematics
ISBN: 3030828085

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These lecture notes provide a rapid, accessible introduction to Bayesian statistical methods. The course covers the fundamental philosophy and principles of Bayesian inference, including the reasoning behind the prior/likelihood model construction synonymous with Bayesian methods, through to advanced topics such as nonparametrics, Gaussian processes and latent factor models. These advanced modelling techniques can easily be applied using computer code samples written in Python and Stan which are integrated into the main text. Importantly, the reader will learn methods for assessing model fit, and to choose between rival modelling approaches.

Time Series Analysis: Methods and Applications

Time Series Analysis: Methods and Applications
Author: Tata Subba Rao
Publisher: Elsevier
Total Pages: 778
Release: 2012-06-26
Genre: Mathematics
ISBN: 0444538585

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'Handbook of Statistics' is a series of self-contained reference books. Each volume is devoted to a particular topic in statistics, with volume 30 dealing with time series.

In All Likelihood

In All Likelihood
Author: Yudi Pawitan
Publisher: OUP Oxford
Total Pages: 543
Release: 2013-01-17
Genre: Mathematics
ISBN: 0191650579

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Based on a course in the theory of statistics this text concentrates on what can be achieved using the likelihood/Fisherian method of taking account of uncertainty when studying a statistical problem. It takes the concept ot the likelihood as providing the best methods for unifying the demands of statistical modelling and the theory of inference. Every likelihood concept is illustrated by realistic examples, which are not compromised by computational problems. Examples range from a simile comparison of two accident rates, to complex studies that require generalised linear or semiparametric modelling. The emphasis is that the likelihood is not simply a device to produce an estimate, but an important tool for modelling. The book generally takes an informal approach, where most important results are established using heuristic arguments and motivated with realistic examples. With the currently available computing power, examples are not contrived to allow a closed analytical solution, and the book can concentrate on the statistical aspects of the data modelling. In addition to classical likelihood theory, the book covers many modern topics such as generalized linear models and mixed models, non parametric smoothing, robustness, the EM algorithm and empirical likelihood.