Fiscal Discipline and Exchange Rates

Fiscal Discipline and Exchange Rates
Author: João Tovar Jalles
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 30
Release: 2016-11-17
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1475555784

Download Fiscal Discipline and Exchange Rates Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle

We look at the effect of exchange rate regimes on fiscal discipline, taking into account the effect of underlying political conditions. We present a model where strong politics (defined as policymakers facing longer political horizon and higher cohesion) are associated with better fiscal performance, but fixed exchange rates may revert this result and lead to less fiscal discipline. We confirm these hypotheses through regression analysis performed on a panel sample covering 79 countries from 1975 to 2012. Our empirical results also show that the positive effect of strong politics on fiscal discipline is not enough to counter the negative impact of being at/moving to fixed exchange rates. Finally, we use the synthetic control method to illustrate how the transition from flexible to fully fixed exchange rate under the Euro impacted negatively fiscal discipline in European countries. Our results are robust to a number of important sensitivity checks, including different estimators, alternative proxies for fiscal discipline, and sub-sample analysis.

Fiscal Policy and the Choice of Exchange Rate Regime

Fiscal Policy and the Choice of Exchange Rate Regime
Author: Aaron Tomell
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 1994
Genre:
ISBN:

Download Fiscal Policy and the Choice of Exchange Rate Regime Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle

Conventional wisdom claims that fixed exchange rates provide more fiscal discipline than do flexible rates, but the recent experiences in Europe, the record of Sub-Saharan countries in the 1980s, and the history of stabilization attempts in Latin America cast empirical doubts on this wisdom. To explore this puzzle we present a standard intertemporal model with perfect capital mobility and price flexibility, in which fiscal policy is endogenously determined by a maximizing fiscal authority.

Do Fixed Exchange Rates Induce More Fiscal Discipline?

Do Fixed Exchange Rates Induce More Fiscal Discipline?
Author: Mr.Yan Sun
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 32
Release: 2003-04-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1451850123

Download Do Fixed Exchange Rates Induce More Fiscal Discipline? Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle

Conventional wisdom has held that a fixed exchange rate regime induces more fiscal discipline, but Tornell and Velasco (1995, 1998) argue the opposite. Using a dynamic model with fragmented fiscal policymaking, this paper evaluates the two arguments in a single framework and shows that (1) future punishment against fiscal laxity exists under both fixed and flexible regimes; (2) fiscal authorities have a greater incentive to spend more today under fixed rates than under flexible rates; (3) in the presence of both factors above, fixed rates will induce more fiscal discipline only if the future punishment is sufficiently stronger than under flexible rates; and (4) neither fixed nor flexible rates could resolve the structural distortions caused by fragmented policymaking, and fiscal centralization needs to be undertaken to strengthen fiscal discipline.

Too Sensational

Too Sensational
Author: W. Max Corden
Publisher: MIT Press
Total Pages: 292
Release: 2004-08-20
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9780262262118

Download Too Sensational Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle

Most of the literature on exchange rate regimes has focused on the developed countries. Since the recent crises in emerging markets, however, attention has shifted to the choice of exchange rate regimes for developing countries, especially those that are more integrated into the world capital markets. In Too Sensational, W. Max Corden presents a systematic and accessible overview of the choice of exchange rate regimes. Reviewing many types of regimes, he shows how the choice of an exchange rate regime is related to both fiscal policy and trade policy. Building on the theory of optimum currency areas, Corden develops an analytic framework of three approaches (nominal anchor, real targets, and exchange rate stability) and three polar exchange rate regimes (absolutely fixed, pure floating, and fixed but adjustable). He considers all other regimes to be mixtures of two or three of the polar regimes. Beginning with theory and later turning to case studies of countries in Asia, Europe, and Latin America, Corden focuses on how economies react to negative and positive shocks under various exchange rate regimes. He examines in particular the Asian and Latin American currency crises of the 1990s. He concludes that although "too sensational" crises have discredited fixed but adjustable regimes, the extremes of absolutely fixed regimes or pure floating regimes need not be chosen.

The Political Economy of Exchange Rate Regime Determination

The Political Economy of Exchange Rate Regime Determination
Author: Alena Kimakova
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 2009
Genre:
ISBN:

Download The Political Economy of Exchange Rate Regime Determination Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle

This paper studies exchange rate regime choice from a positive perspective by modeling the interplay of monetary and fiscal policy, credibility and financial market microstructure as factors influencing the decision on de facto regime. The model shows how a small open economy reliant on foreign sources of financing is likely to opt for a stable regime. Furthermore, a stable political environment with a high degree of accountability is conducive to choosing a flexible regime. The findings suggest that flexible rather than fixed exchange rate regimes provide more fiscal discipline.

The Choice of Monetary and Exchange Rate Arrangements for a Small, Open, Low-income Economy

The Choice of Monetary and Exchange Rate Arrangements for a Small, Open, Low-income Economy
Author:
Publisher:
Total Pages: 42
Release: 2008
Genre: Foreign exchange rates
ISBN:

Download The Choice of Monetary and Exchange Rate Arrangements for a Small, Open, Low-income Economy Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle

This paper assesses São Tomé and Príncipe's monetary and exchange rate arrangements in light of the country's monetary history and the relevant experience of comparable countries in Africa. The study highlights several structural characteristics of São Tomé and Príncipe including its very small size, high degree of openness, extensive use of foreign currencies, and inflexible product and factor markets in the consideration of an appropriate monetary and exchange regime. Firmly anchored currency arrangements, defined in this paper to include memberships in monetary unions or hard pegs, are found to be preferable to the status quo of a managed float. The paper applies statistical methods and takes into account other factors to identify the appropriate anchor currency. It stresses that fiscal discipline and prudent debt management are the main prerequisites for a firmly anchored currency arrangement.

The Choice of Monetary and Exchange Rate Arrangements for a Small, Open, Low-Income Economy: The Case of Sao Tome and Principe

The Choice of Monetary and Exchange Rate Arrangements for a Small, Open, Low-Income Economy: The Case of Sao Tome and Principe
Author: Márcio Valério Ronci
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Total Pages: 37
Release: 2008-05-01
Genre:
ISBN: 9781451869781

Download The Choice of Monetary and Exchange Rate Arrangements for a Small, Open, Low-Income Economy: The Case of Sao Tome and Principe Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle

This paper assesses São Tomé and Príncipe's monetary and exchange rate arrangements in light of the country's monetary history and the relevant experience of comparable countries in Africa. The study highlights several structural characteristics of São Tomé and Príncipe including its very small size, high degree of openness, extensive use of foreign currencies, and inflexible product and factor markets in the consideration of an appropriate monetary and exchange regime. Firmly anchored currency arrangements, defined in this paper to include memberships in monetary unions or hard pegs, are found to be preferable to the status quo of a managed float. The paper applies statistical methods and takes into account other factors to identify the appropriate anchor currency. It stresses that fiscal discipline and prudent debt management are the main prerequisites for a firmly anchored currency arrangement.

Setting the Stage for a National Currency in the West Bank and Gaza

Setting the Stage for a National Currency in the West Bank and Gaza
Author: Samya Beidas
Publisher:
Total Pages: 40
Release: 2005
Genre: Currency question
ISBN:

Download Setting the Stage for a National Currency in the West Bank and Gaza Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle

This paper sheds light on the quantitative behavioral responses of key economic variables in the Palestinian economy in the face of major economic shocks and draws implications for the choice of an exchange rate regime should a decision be taken to introduce a national currency. Time-series regression analysis shows that (i) wages and prices are flexible in the face of various shocks; (ii) the real wage appears rigid in the face of various shocks and increases despite higher unemployment; (iii) an appreciation of the new Israeli Sheqalim real effective exchange rate decreases exports and imports; and (iv) money demand appears stable in the face of exchange rate shocks. Although a fixed exchange rate system may initially be desirable to establish credibility of the new currency, some flexibility of the exchange rate is desirable over time.