NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2018

NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2018
Author: Martin Eichenbaum
Publisher: University of Chicago Press Journals
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2019-08-05
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9780226645728

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This volume contains six studies on current topics in macroeconomics. The first shows that while assuming rational expectations is unrealistic, a finite-horizon forward planning model can yield results similar to those of a rational expectations equilibrium. The second explores the aggregate risk of the U.S. financial sector, and in particular whether it is safer now than before the 2008 financial crisis. The third analyzes “factorless income,” output that is not measured as capital or labor income. Next, a study argues that the financial crisis increased the perceived risk of a very bad economic and financial outcome, and explores the propagation of large, rare shocks. The next paper documents the substantial recent changes in the manufacturing sector and the decline in employment among prime-aged Americans since 2000. The last paper analyzes the dynamic macroeconomic effects of border adjustment taxes.

NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2013

NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2013
Author: Jonathan A. Parker
Publisher: University of Chicago Press Journals
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2014-05-22
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9780226165400

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The twenty-eighth edition of the NBER Macroeconomics Annual continues its tradition of featuring theoretical and empirical research on central issues in contemporary macroeconomics. As in previous years, this volume not only addresses recent developments in macroeconomics, but also takes up important policy-relevant questions and opens new debates that will continue for years to come. The first two papers in this year’s issue tackle fiscal and monetary policy, asking how interest rates and inflation can remain low despite fiscal policy behavior that appears inconsistent with a monetary policy regime focused only on inflation and output and not on fiscal balances as recently observed in the U.S. The third examines the implications of reference-dependent preferences and moral hazard in employment fluctuations in the labor market. The fourth paper addresses money and inflation, analyzing the long run inflation rate, the coexistence of money with pledgeable and money-like assets, and why inflation did not increase in response to business-cycle fluctuations in productivity. And the fifth looks at the stock market and how it relates to the real economy. The final chapter discusses the large and public shift towards more expansionary monetary policy that has recently occurred in Japan.

NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2007

NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2007
Author: Daron Acemoglu
Publisher:
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2008-03
Genre: Macroeconomics
ISBN: 9780226002026

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The NBER Macroeconomics Annual provides a forum for important debates in contemporary macroeconomics and major developments in the theory of macroeconomic analysis and policy that include leading economists from a variety of fields. The papers and accompanying discussions in NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2007 address exchange-rate models; implications of credit market frictions; cyclical budgetary policy and economic growth; the impacts of shocks to government spending on consumption, real wages, and employment; dynamic macroeconomic models; and the role of cyclical entry of new firms and products on the nature of business-cycle fluctuations and on the effects of monetary policy.

NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2009

NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2009
Author: Daron Acemoglu
Publisher:
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2010-07
Genre: Macroeconomics
ISBN: 9780226002095

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The NBER Macroeconomics Annual provides a forum for important debates in contemporary macroeconomics and major developments in the theory of macroeconomic analysis and policy that include leading economists from a variety of fields. The papers and accompanying discussions in NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2009 address how heterogeneous beliefs interact with equilibrium leverage and potentially lead to leverage cycles, the validity of alternative hypotheses about the reason for the recent increase in foreclosures on residential mortgages, the credit rating crisis, quantitative implications for the evolution of the U.S. wage distribution, and noisy business cycles.

NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2015

NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2015
Author: Martin Eichenbaum
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
Total Pages: 517
Release: 2016-06-22
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 022639574X

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This year, the NBER Macroeconomics Annual celebrates its thirtieth volume. The first two papers examine China’s macroeconomic development. “Trends and Cycles in China's Macroeconomy” by Chun Chang, Kaiji Chen, Daniel F. Waggoner, and Tao Zha outlines the key characteristics of growth and business cycles in China. “Demystifying the Chinese Housing Boom” by Hanming Fang, Quanlin Gu, Wei Xiong, and Li-An Zhou constructs a new house price index, showing that Chinese house prices have grown by ten percent per year over the past decade. The third paper, “External and Public Debt Crises” by Cristina Arellano, Andrew Atkeson, and Mark Wright, asks why there appear to be large differences across countries and subnational jurisdictions in the effect of rising public debts on economic outcomes. The fourth, “Networks and the Macroeconomy: An Empirical Exploration” by Daron Acemoglu, Ufuk Akcigit, and William Kerr, explains how the network structure of the US economy propagates the effect of gross output productivity shocks across upstream and downstream sectors. The fifth and sixth papers investigate the usefulness of surveys of household’s beliefs for understanding economic phenomena. “Expectations and Investment,” by Nicola Gennaioli, Yueran Ma, and Andrei Shleifer, demonstrates that a chief financial officer's expectations of a firm's future earnings growth is related to both the planned and actual future investment of that firm. “Declining Desire to Work and Downward Trends in Unemployment and Participation” by Regis Barnichon and Andrew Figura shows that an increasing number of prime-age Americans who are not in the labor force report no desire to work and that this decline accelerated during the second half of the 1990s.

NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2017

NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2017
Author: Martin Eichenbaum
Publisher: University of Chicago Press Journals
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2018-05-22
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9780226577661

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Volume 32 of the NBER Macroeconomics Annual features six theoretical and empirical studies of important issues in contemporary macroeconomics, and a keynote address by former IMF chief economist Olivier Blanchard. In one study, SeHyoun Ahn, Greg Kaplan, Benjamin Moll, Thomas Winberry, and Christian Wolf examine the dynamics of consumption expenditures in non-representative-agent macroeconomic models. In another, John Cochrane asks which macro models most naturally explain the post-financial-crisis macroeconomic environment, which is characterized by the co-existence of low and nonvolatile inflation rates, near-zero short-term interest rates, and an explosion in monetary aggregates. Manuel Adelino, Antoinette Schoar, and Felipe Severino examine the causes of the lending boom that precipitated the recent U.S. financial crisis and Great Recession. Steven Durlauf and Ananth Seshadri investigate whether increases in income inequality cause lower levels of economic mobility and opportunity. Charles Manski explores the formation of expectations, considering the efficacy of directly measuring beliefs through surveys as an alternative to making the assumption of rational expectations. In the final research paper, Efraim Benmelech and Nittai Bergman analyze the sharp declines in debt issuance and the evaporation of market liquidity that coincide with most financial crises. Blanchard’s keynote address discusses which distortions are central to understanding short-run macroeconomic fluctuations.

Risk Topography

Risk Topography
Author: Markus Brunnermeier
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
Total Pages: 286
Release: 2014-10-17
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 022609264X

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The recent financial crisis and the difficulty of using mainstream macroeconomic models to accurately monitor and assess systemic risk have stimulated new analyses of how we measure economic activity and the development of more sophisticated models in which the financial sector plays a greater role. Markus Brunnermeier and Arvind Krishnamurthy have assembled contributions from leading academic researchers, central bankers, and other financial-market experts to explore the possibilities for advancing macroeconomic modeling in order to achieve more accurate economic measurement. Essays in this volume focus on the development of models capable of highlighting the vulnerabilities that leave the economy susceptible to adverse feedback loops and liquidity spirals. While these types of vulnerabilities have often been identified, they have not been consistently measured. In a financial world of increasing complexity and uncertainty, this volume is an invaluable resource for policymakers working to improve current measurement systems and for academics concerned with conceptualizing effective measurement.

Reducing Foreclosures

Reducing Foreclosures
Author: Christopher Foote
Publisher: DIANE Publishing
Total Pages: 53
Release: 2009
Genre: Law
ISBN: 1437928773

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Takes a skeptical look at a leading argument about what is causing the foreclosure crisis and what should be done to stop it. The authors focus on two key decisions: the borrower's choice to default on a mortgage and the lender's subsequent choice whether to renegotiate or modify the loan. Unaffordable loans, defined as those with high mortgage payments relative to income at origination, are unlikely to be the main reason that borrowers decide to default. The efficiency of foreclosure for investors is a more plausible explanation for the low number of modifications to date. Policies designed to reduce foreclosures should focus on ameliorating the effects of job loss rather than modifying loans to make them more affordable on a long-term basis. Illustrations.

Milton Friedman on Economics

Milton Friedman on Economics
Author: Milton Friedman
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
Total Pages: 197
Release: 2007
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0226263495

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Milton Friedman on Economics: Selected Papers collects a variety of Friedman's papers on topics in economics that were originally published in the Journal of Political Economy. Opening with Friedman's 1977 Nobel Lecture, the volume spans nearly the whole of his career, incorporating papers from as early as 1948 and as late as 1990.