Multivariate Least Squares Forecasting Averaging by Vector Autoregressive Models

Multivariate Least Squares Forecasting Averaging by Vector Autoregressive Models
Author: Jen-Che Liao
Publisher:
Total Pages: 47
Release: 2016
Genre:
ISBN:

Download Multivariate Least Squares Forecasting Averaging by Vector Autoregressive Models Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle

This paper proposes a multivariate least squares Mallows averaging approach to the issue of forecast combination by vector autoregressive (VAR) model fitting. Our approach extends the current literature on frequentist least squares model/forecast averaging methods, in particular Hansen (2008), to multivariate time series models. We provide a theoretical foundation of our approach by presenting the relation between the proposed multivariate Mallows averaging criterion and the in-sample mean squared error and out-of-sample mean squared forecast error. We also establish the asymptotic properties such as unbiasedness and optimality of our approach. In a simulation experiment, the proposed approach performs well in finite samples relative to other selection and averaging methods. For an empirical illustration, we apply our methodology to forecasting U.S. macroeconomic dynamic systems based on small-scale and medium-scale VARs fitted to the datasets that were previously studied by Sims (1980) and Stock and Watson (2009).

Optimal Multi-Step VAR Forecasting Averaging

Optimal Multi-Step VAR Forecasting Averaging
Author: Jen-Che Liao
Publisher:
Total Pages: 54
Release: 2018
Genre:
ISBN:

Download Optimal Multi-Step VAR Forecasting Averaging Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle

This paper proposes frequentist multiple-equation least squares averaging approaches for multi-step forecasting with vector autoregressive (VAR) models. The proposed VAR forecasting averaging methods are based on the multivariate Mallows model averaging (MMMA) and multivariate leave-h-out cross-validation averaging (MCVAh) criteria (with h denoting the forecast horizon), which are valid for iterative and direct multi-step forecasting averaging, respectively. Under the framework of stationary VAR processes of infinite order, we provide theoretical justifications by establishing asymptotic unbiasedness and asymptotic optimality of the proposed forecasting averaging approaches. Specifically, MMMA exhibits asymptotic optimality for one-step ahead forecast averaging, whereas for direct multi-step forecasting averaging the asymptotically optimal combination weights are determined separately for each forecast horizon based on the MCVAh procedure. The finite-sample behaviour of the proposed averaging procedures under misspecification is investigated via simulation experiments. An empirical application to a three-variable monetary VAR, based on the U.S. data, is also provided to present our methodology.

Introduction to Multiple Time Series Analysis

Introduction to Multiple Time Series Analysis
Author: Helmut Lütkepohl
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 576
Release: 1993-08-13
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9783540569404

Download Introduction to Multiple Time Series Analysis Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle

This graduate level textbook deals with analyzing and forecasting multiple time series. It considers a wide range of multiple time series models and methods. The models include vector autoregressive, vector autoregressive moving average, cointegrated, and periodic processes as well as state space and dynamic simultaneous equations models. Least squares, maximum likelihood, and Bayesian methods are considered for estimating these models. Different procedures for model selection or specification are treated and a range of tests and criteria for evaluating the adequacy of a chosen model are introduced. The choice of point and interval forecasts is considered and impulse response analysis, dynamic multipliers as well as innovation accounting are presented as tools for structural analysis within the multiple time series context. This book is accessible to graduate students in business and economics. In addition, multiple time series courses in other fields such as statistics and engineering may be based on this book. Applied researchers involved in analyzing multiple time series may benefit from the book as it provides the background and tools for their task. It enables the reader to perform his or her analyses in a gap to the difficult technical literature on the topic.

Estimation and Forecasting in Vector Autoregressive Moving Average Models for Rich Datasets

Estimation and Forecasting in Vector Autoregressive Moving Average Models for Rich Datasets
Author: Gustavo Fruet Dias
Publisher:
Total Pages: 40
Release: 2017
Genre:
ISBN:

Download Estimation and Forecasting in Vector Autoregressive Moving Average Models for Rich Datasets Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle

We address the issue of modelling and forecasting macroeconomic variables using rich datasets by adopting the class of Vector Autoregressive Moving Average (VARMA) models. We overcome the estimation issue that arises with this class of models by implementing an iterative ordinary least squares (IOLS) estimator. We establish the consistency and asymptotic distribution of the estimator for weak and strong VARMA(p,q) models. Monte Carlo results show that IOLS is consistent and feasible for large systems, outperforming the MLE and other linear regression based efficient estimators under alternative scenarios. Our empirical application shows that VARMA models are feasible alternatives when forecasting with many predictors. We show that VARMA models outperform the AR(1), ARMA(1,1), Bayesian VAR, and factor models, considering different model dimensions.Supplement is available at: 'https://ssrn.com/abstract=2830838' https://ssrn.com/abstract=2830838.

Elements of Multivariate Time Series Analysis

Elements of Multivariate Time Series Analysis
Author: Gregory C. Reinsel
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 278
Release: 2012-12-06
Genre: Mathematics
ISBN: 146840198X

Download Elements of Multivariate Time Series Analysis Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle

The use of methods of time series analysis in the study of multivariate time series has become of increased interest in recent years. Although the methods are rather well developed and understood for univarjate time series analysis, the situation is not so complete for the multivariate case. This book is designed to introduce the basic concepts and methods that are useful in the analysis and modeling of multivariate time series, with illustrations of these basic ideas. The development includes both traditional topics such as autocovariance and auto correlation matrices of stationary processes, properties of vector ARMA models, forecasting ARMA processes, least squares and maximum likelihood estimation techniques for vector AR and ARMA models, and model checking diagnostics for residuals, as well as topics of more recent interest for vector ARMA models such as reduced rank structure, structural indices, scalar component models, canonical correlation analyses for vector time series, multivariate unit-root models and cointegration structure, and state-space models and Kalman filtering techniques and applications. This book concentrates on the time-domain analysis of multivariate time series, and the important subject of spectral analysis is not considered here. For that topic, the reader is referred to the excellent books by Jenkins and Watts (1968), Hannan (1970), Priestley (1981), and others.

Forecasting Economic Time Series

Forecasting Economic Time Series
Author: C. W. J. Granger
Publisher: Academic Press
Total Pages: 353
Release: 2014-05-10
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1483273245

Download Forecasting Economic Time Series Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle

Economic Theory, Econometrics, and Mathematical Economics, Second Edition: Forecasting Economic Time Series presents the developments in time series analysis and forecasting theory and practice. This book discusses the application of time series procedures in mainstream economic theory and econometric model building. Organized into 10 chapters, this edition begins with an overview of the problem of dealing with time series possessing a deterministic seasonal component. This text then provides a description of time series in terms of models known as the time-domain approach. Other chapters consider an alternative approach, known as spectral or frequency-domain analysis, that often provides useful insights into the properties of a series. This book discusses as well a unified approach to the fitting of linear models to a given time series. The final chapter deals with the main advantage of having a Gaussian series wherein the optimal single series, least-squares forecast will be a linear forecast. This book is a valuable resource for economists.

Introduction to Multiple Time Series Analysis

Introduction to Multiple Time Series Analysis
Author: Helmut Lütkepohl
Publisher: Springer
Total Pages: 0
Release: 1993
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9783642616952

Download Introduction to Multiple Time Series Analysis Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle

This graduate level textbook deals with analyzing and forecasting multiple time series. It considers a wide range of multiple time series models and methods. The models include vector autoregressive, vector autoregressive moving average, cointegrated, and periodic processes as well as state space and dynamic simultaneous equations models. Least squares, maximum likelihood, and Bayesian methods are considered for estimating these models. Different procedures for model selection or specification are treated and a range of tests and criteria for evaluating the adequacy of a chosen model are introduced. The choice of point and interval forecasts is considered and impulse response analysis, dynamic multipliers as well as innovation accounting are presented as tools for structural analysis within the multiple time series context. This book is accessible to graduate students in business and economics. In addition, multiple time series courses in other fields such as statistics and engineering may be based on this book. Applied researchers involved in analyzing multiple time series may benefit from the book as it provides the background and tools for their task. It enables the reader to perform his or her analyses in a gap to the difficult technical literature on the topic.

Multivariate Autoregressive Time Series Using Schweppe Weighted Wilcoxon Estimates

Multivariate Autoregressive Time Series Using Schweppe Weighted Wilcoxon Estimates
Author: Jaime Burgos
Publisher:
Total Pages: 43
Release: 2014
Genre:
ISBN:

Download Multivariate Autoregressive Time Series Using Schweppe Weighted Wilcoxon Estimates Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle

The increasing needs of forecasting techniques has led to the popularity of the vector autoregressive model in multivariate time series analysis, which has become of typical use across different fields due to its simplicity in application. The traditional method for estimating the model parameters is the least squares minimization, due to the linear nature of the model and its similarity with multivariate linear regression. However, since least squares estimates are sensitive to outliers, more robust techniques have become of interest. This manuscript investigates a robust alternative by obtaining the estimates using a weighted Wilcoxon dispersion with Schweppe-type weights. The first section introduces the typical definition of a vector autoregressive model, along with popular estimation methods and weighting schemes. In section two, the proposed estimator is shown to be asymptotically multivariate normal, centered about the true model parameters, at a rate of n- 1/2. Section three follows with an in depth discussion of the derivation of the main theoretical results. After that, in section four, a Monte Carlo study is presented to evaluate the performance of alternative estimators compared against the least squares estimates. The study results suggest that the Schweppe-weighted Wilcoxon estimates will generally have best performance. This result is most noticeable under the presence of additive outliers or when the series is closer to non-stationarity. In the last section, the estimation methods are applied to quadrivariate financial time series and results are compared. The applied example results indicate that estimates that use weights are better at detecting outliers by reducing their influence on the fit. This work provides a high efficiency robust alternative to the estimation problem of the vector autoregressive model parameters in multivariate time series analysis.

Time Series Models

Time Series Models
Author: Andrew C. Harvey
Publisher:
Total Pages: 250
Release: 1981
Genre: Econometrics
ISBN:

Download Time Series Models Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle

Stationary stochastic process and their properties in the time domain; The frequency domain; State space models and the kalman filter; Estimation of autoregressive moving average models; Model building and prediction; Selected topics in time series regression.

Multivariate Time Series Analysis and Applications

Multivariate Time Series Analysis and Applications
Author: William W. S. Wei
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Total Pages: 536
Release: 2019-03-18
Genre: Mathematics
ISBN: 1119502853

Download Multivariate Time Series Analysis and Applications Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle

An essential guide on high dimensional multivariate time series including all the latest topics from one of the leading experts in the field Following the highly successful and much lauded book, Time Series Analysis—Univariate and Multivariate Methods, this new work by William W.S. Wei focuses on high dimensional multivariate time series, and is illustrated with numerous high dimensional empirical time series. Beginning with the fundamentalconcepts and issues of multivariate time series analysis,this book covers many topics that are not found in general multivariate time series books. Some of these are repeated measurements, space-time series modelling, and dimension reduction. The book also looks at vector time series models, multivariate time series regression models, and principle component analysis of multivariate time series. Additionally, it provides readers with information on factor analysis of multivariate time series, multivariate GARCH models, and multivariate spectral analysis of time series. With the development of computers and the internet, we have increased potential for data exploration. In the next few years, dimension will become a more serious problem. Multivariate Time Series Analysis and its Applications provides some initial solutions, which may encourage the development of related software needed for the high dimensional multivariate time series analysis. Written by bestselling author and leading expert in the field Covers topics not yet explored in current multivariate books Features classroom tested material Written specifically for time series courses Multivariate Time Series Analysis and its Applications is designed for an advanced time series analysis course. It is a must-have for anyone studying time series analysis and is also relevant for students in economics, biostatistics, and engineering.