Multivariate Autoregressive Time Series Using Schweppe Weighted Wilcoxon Estimates

Multivariate Autoregressive Time Series Using Schweppe Weighted Wilcoxon Estimates
Author: Jaime Burgos
Publisher:
Total Pages: 43
Release: 2014
Genre:
ISBN:

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The increasing needs of forecasting techniques has led to the popularity of the vector autoregressive model in multivariate time series analysis, which has become of typical use across different fields due to its simplicity in application. The traditional method for estimating the model parameters is the least squares minimization, due to the linear nature of the model and its similarity with multivariate linear regression. However, since least squares estimates are sensitive to outliers, more robust techniques have become of interest. This manuscript investigates a robust alternative by obtaining the estimates using a weighted Wilcoxon dispersion with Schweppe-type weights. The first section introduces the typical definition of a vector autoregressive model, along with popular estimation methods and weighting schemes. In section two, the proposed estimator is shown to be asymptotically multivariate normal, centered about the true model parameters, at a rate of n- 1/2. Section three follows with an in depth discussion of the derivation of the main theoretical results. After that, in section four, a Monte Carlo study is presented to evaluate the performance of alternative estimators compared against the least squares estimates. The study results suggest that the Schweppe-weighted Wilcoxon estimates will generally have best performance. This result is most noticeable under the presence of additive outliers or when the series is closer to non-stationarity. In the last section, the estimation methods are applied to quadrivariate financial time series and results are compared. The applied example results indicate that estimates that use weights are better at detecting outliers by reducing their influence on the fit. This work provides a high efficiency robust alternative to the estimation problem of the vector autoregressive model parameters in multivariate time series analysis.

Robust Rank-Based and Nonparametric Methods

Robust Rank-Based and Nonparametric Methods
Author: Regina Y. Liu
Publisher: Springer
Total Pages: 284
Release: 2016-09-20
Genre: Mathematics
ISBN: 3319390651

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The contributors to this volume include many of the distinguished researchers in this area. Many of these scholars have collaborated with Joseph McKean to develop underlying theory for these methods, obtain small sample corrections, and develop efficient algorithms for their computation. The papers cover the scope of the area, including robust nonparametric rank-based procedures through Bayesian and big data rank-based analyses. Areas of application include biostatistics and spatial areas. Over the last 30 years, robust rank-based and nonparametric methods have developed considerably. These procedures generalize traditional Wilcoxon-type methods for one- and two-sample location problems. Research into these procedures has culminated in complete analyses for many of the models used in practice including linear, generalized linear, mixed, and nonlinear models. Settings are both multivariate and univariate. With the development of R packages in these areas, computation of these procedures is easily shared with readers and implemented. This book is developed from the International Conference on Robust Rank-Based and Nonparametric Methods, held at Western Michigan University in April 2015.

New Introduction to Multiple Time Series Analysis

New Introduction to Multiple Time Series Analysis
Author: Helmut Lütkepohl
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 792
Release: 2007-07-26
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9783540262398

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This is the new and totally revised edition of Lütkepohl’s classic 1991 work. It provides a detailed introduction to the main steps of analyzing multiple time series, model specification, estimation, model checking, and for using the models for economic analysis and forecasting. The book now includes new chapters on cointegration analysis, structural vector autoregressions, cointegrated VARMA processes and multivariate ARCH models. The book bridges the gap to the difficult technical literature on the topic. It is accessible to graduate students in business and economics. In addition, multiple time series courses in other fields such as statistics and engineering may be based on it.

Introduction to Multiple Time Series Analysis

Introduction to Multiple Time Series Analysis
Author: Helmut Lütkepohl
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 576
Release: 1993-08-13
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9783540569404

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This graduate level textbook deals with analyzing and forecasting multiple time series. It considers a wide range of multiple time series models and methods. The models include vector autoregressive, vector autoregressive moving average, cointegrated, and periodic processes as well as state space and dynamic simultaneous equations models. Least squares, maximum likelihood, and Bayesian methods are considered for estimating these models. Different procedures for model selection or specification are treated and a range of tests and criteria for evaluating the adequacy of a chosen model are introduced. The choice of point and interval forecasts is considered and impulse response analysis, dynamic multipliers as well as innovation accounting are presented as tools for structural analysis within the multiple time series context. This book is accessible to graduate students in business and economics. In addition, multiple time series courses in other fields such as statistics and engineering may be based on this book. Applied researchers involved in analyzing multiple time series may benefit from the book as it provides the background and tools for their task. It enables the reader to perform his or her analyses in a gap to the difficult technical literature on the topic.

Periodic Time Series Models

Periodic Time Series Models
Author: Philip Hans Franses
Publisher: OUP Oxford
Total Pages: 166
Release: 2004-03-25
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0191529265

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This book considers periodic time series models for seasonal data, characterized by parameters that differ across the seasons, and focuses on their usefulness for out-of-sample forecasting. Providing an up-to-date survey of the recent developments in periodic time series, the book presents a large number of empirical results. The first part of the book deals with model selection, diagnostic checking and forecasting of univariate periodic autoregressive models. Tests for periodic integration, are discussed, and an extensive discussion of the role of deterministic regressors in testing for periodic integration and in forecasting is provided. The second part discusses multivariate periodic autoregressive models. It provides an overview of periodic cointegration models, as these are the most relevant. This overview contains single-equation type tests and a full-system approach based on generalized method of moments. All methods are illustrated with extensive examples, and the book will be of interest to advanced graduate students and researchers in econometrics, as well as practitioners looking for an understanding of how to approach seasonal data.

MULTIVARIATE TIME SERIES ANALYSIS with MATLAB. VAR and VARMAX MODELS

MULTIVARIATE TIME SERIES ANALYSIS with MATLAB. VAR and VARMAX MODELS
Author: Perez M.
Publisher: Createspace Independent Publishing Platform
Total Pages: 176
Release: 2016-06-24
Genre:
ISBN: 9781534868076

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This book focuses on Multivariate Time Series Models. The most important issues are the following: Vector Autoregressive Models Introduction to Vector Autoregressive (VAR) Models Data Structures Model Specification Structures VAR Model Estimation VAR Model Forecasting, Simulation, and Analysis VAR Model Case Study Cointegration and Error Correction Introduction to Cointegration Analysis Identifying Single Cointegrating Relations Identifying Multiple Cointegrating Relations Testing Cointegrating Vectors and Adjustment Speeds

Introduction to Multiple Time Series Analysis

Introduction to Multiple Time Series Analysis
Author: Helmut Lütkepohl
Publisher: Springer
Total Pages: 0
Release: 1993
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9783642616952

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This graduate level textbook deals with analyzing and forecasting multiple time series. It considers a wide range of multiple time series models and methods. The models include vector autoregressive, vector autoregressive moving average, cointegrated, and periodic processes as well as state space and dynamic simultaneous equations models. Least squares, maximum likelihood, and Bayesian methods are considered for estimating these models. Different procedures for model selection or specification are treated and a range of tests and criteria for evaluating the adequacy of a chosen model are introduced. The choice of point and interval forecasts is considered and impulse response analysis, dynamic multipliers as well as innovation accounting are presented as tools for structural analysis within the multiple time series context. This book is accessible to graduate students in business and economics. In addition, multiple time series courses in other fields such as statistics and engineering may be based on this book. Applied researchers involved in analyzing multiple time series may benefit from the book as it provides the background and tools for their task. It enables the reader to perform his or her analyses in a gap to the difficult technical literature on the topic.

Time Series Analysis

Time Series Analysis
Author: William W. S. Wei
Publisher: Addison-Wesley Longman
Total Pages: 648
Release: 2006
Genre: Mathematics
ISBN:

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With its broad coverage of methodology, this comprehensive book is a useful learning and reference tool for those in applied sciences where analysis and research of time series is useful. Its plentiful examples show the operational details and purpose of a variety of univariate and multivariate time series methods. Numerous figures, tables and real-life time series data sets illustrate the models and methods useful for analyzing, modeling, and forecasting data collected sequentially in time. The text also offers a balanced treatment between theory and applications. Overview. Fundamental Concepts. Stationary Time Series Models. Nonstationary Time Series Models. Forecasting. Model Identification. Parameter Estimation, Diagnostic Checking, and Model Selection. Seasonal Time Series Models. Testing for a Unit Root. Intervention Analysis and Outlier Detection. Fourier Analysis. Spectral Theory of Stationary Processes. Estimation of the Spectrum. Transfer Function Models. Time Series Regression and GARCH Models. Vector Time Series Models. More on Vector Time Series. State Space Models and the Kalman Filter. Long Memory and Nonlinear Processes. Aggregation and Systematic Sampling in Time Series. For all readers interested in time series analysis.