Money Targeting In A Modern Forecasting And Policy Analysis System
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Author | : Michal Andrle |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 44 |
Release | : 2013-11-25 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1475538006 |
Download Money Targeting in a Modern Forecasting and Policy Analysis System Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle
We extend the framework in Andrle and others (2013) to incorporate an explicit role for money targets and target misses in the analysis of monetary policy in low-income countries (LICs), with an application to Kenya. We provide a general specification that can nest various types of money targeting (ranging from targets based on optimal money demand forecasts to those derived from simple money growth rules), interest-rate based frameworks, and intermediate cases. Our framework acknowledges that ex-post adherence to targets is in itself an objective of policy in LICs; here we provide a novel interpretation of target misses in terms of structural shocks (aggregate demand, policy, shocks to money demand, etc). In the case of Kenya, we find that: (i) the setting of money targets is consistent with money demand forecasting, (ii) targets have not played a systematic role in monetary policy, and (iii) target misses mainly reflect shocks to money demand. Simulations of the model under alternative policy specifications show that the stronger the ex-post target adherence, the greater the macroeconomic volatility. Our findings highlight the benefits of a model-based approach to monetary policy analysis in LICs, including in countries with money-targeting frameworks.
Author | : International Monetary Fund |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 74 |
Release | : 2015-10-23 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1498344062 |
Download Evolving Monetary Policy Frameworks in Low-Income and Other Developing Countries Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle
Over the past two decades, many low- and lower-middle income countries (LLMICs) have improved control over fiscal policy, liberalized and deepened financial markets, and stabilized inflation at moderate levels. Monetary policy frameworks that have helped achieve these ends are being challenged by continued financial development and increased exposure to global capital markets. Many policymakers aspire to move beyond the basics of stability to implement monetary policy frameworks that better anchor inflation and promote macroeconomic stability and growth. Many of these LLMICs are thus considering and implementing improvements to their monetary policy frameworks. The recent successes of some LLMICs and the experiences of emerging and advanced economies, both early in their policy modernization process and following the global financial crisis, are valuable in identifying desirable features of such frameworks. This paper draws on those lessons to provide guidance on key elements of effective monetary policy frameworks for LLMICs.
Author | : International Monetary |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 16 |
Release | : 2021-05-14 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1513572970 |
Download Republic of Mozambique: Technical Assistance Report-Inflation Targeting and Model-based Monetary Policy Analysis Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle
The purpose of the mission was to improve the understanding of the conduct of monetary policy in an inflation targeting (IT) central bank. During the September visit, the mission provided capacity building through daily morning seminars, giving an introduction to modern theory of monetary policy in small-open economies, and by performing monetary policy analyses based on BM’s quarterly projection model (QPM) in the afternoons.
Author | : International Monetary Fund |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 61 |
Release | : 2014-05-03 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1498343694 |
Download Conditionality in Evolving Monetary Policy Regimes Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle
With single-digit inflation and substantial financial deepening, developing countries are adopting more flexible and forward-looking monetary policy frameworks and ascribing a greater role to policy interest rates and inflation objectives. While some countries have adopted formal inflation targeting regimes, others have developed frameworks with greater target flexibility to accommodate changing money demand, use of policy rates to signal the monetary policy stance, and implicit inflation targets.
Author | : Michal Andrle |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 44 |
Release | : 2013-11-25 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1475516681 |
Download Money Targeting in a Modern Forecasting and Policy Analysis System Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle
We extend the framework in Andrle and others (2013) to incorporate an explicit role for money targets and target misses in the analysis of monetary policy in low-income countries (LICs), with an application to Kenya. We provide a general specification that can nest various types of money targeting (ranging from targets based on optimal money demand forecasts to those derived from simple money growth rules), interest-rate based frameworks, and intermediate cases. Our framework acknowledges that ex-post adherence to targets is in itself an objective of policy in LICs; here we provide a novel interpretation of target misses in terms of structural shocks (aggregate demand, policy, shocks to money demand, etc). In the case of Kenya, we find that: (i) the setting of money targets is consistent with money demand forecasting, (ii) targets have not played a systematic role in monetary policy, and (iii) target misses mainly reflect shocks to money demand. Simulations of the model under alternative policy specifications show that the stronger the ex-post target adherence, the greater the macroeconomic volatility. Our findings highlight the benefits of a model-based approach to monetary policy analysis in LICs, including in countries with money-targeting frameworks.
Author | : Mr.Jaromir Benes |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 41 |
Release | : 2017-02-13 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1475578709 |
Download Quarterly Projection Model for India Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle
This paper outlines the key features of the production version of the quarterly projection model (QPM), which is a forward-looking open-economy gap model, calibrated to represent the Indian case, for generating forecasts and risk assessment as well as conducting policy analysis. QPM incorporates several India-specific features like the importance of the agricultural sector and food prices in the inflation process; features of monetary policy transmission and implications of an endogenous credibility process for monetary policy formulation. The paper also describes key properties and historical decompositions of some important macroeconomic variables.
Author | : Tobias Adrian |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 297 |
Release | : 2018-04-13 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 148432594X |
Download Advancing the Frontiers of Monetary Policy Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle
Contributors working at the International Monetary Fund present 14 chapters on the development of monetary policy over the past quarter century through the lens of the evolution of inflation-forecast targeting. They describe the principles and practices of inflation-forecast targeting, including managing expectations, the implementation of a forecasting and policy analysis system, monetary operations, monetary policy and financial stability, financial conditions, and transparency and communications; aspects of inflation-forecast targeting in Canada, the Czech Republic, India, and the US; and monetary policy challenges faced by low-income countries and how inflation-forecast targeting can provide an anchor in countries with different economic structures and circumstances.
Author | : Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 0 |
Release | : 2002 |
Genre | : Banks and Banking |
ISBN | : 9780894991967 |
Download The Federal Reserve System Purposes and Functions Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle
Provides an in-depth overview of the Federal Reserve System, including information about monetary policy and the economy, the Federal Reserve in the international sphere, supervision and regulation, consumer and community affairs and services offered by Reserve Banks. Contains several appendixes, including a brief explanation of Federal Reserve regulations, a glossary of terms, and a list of additional publications.
Author | : Rania A. Al-Mashat |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 72 |
Release | : 2018-10-01 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1484379535 |
Download An Index for Transparency for Inflation-Targeting Central Banks: Application to the Czech National Bank Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle
This paper develops a new central bank transparency index for inflation-targeting central banks (CBT-IT index). It applies the CBT-IT index to the Czech National Bank (CNB), one of the most transparent inflation-targeting central banks. The CNB has invested heavily in developing a Forecasting and Policy Analysis System (FPAS) to implement a full-fledged inflation-forecast-targeting (IFT) regime. The components of CBT-IT index include measures of transparency about monetary policy objectives, the FPAS designed to support IFT, and the monetary policymaking process. For the CNB, all three components have shown substantial improvements over time but a few gaps remain. The CNB is currently working on eliminating some of these gaps.
Author | : Peter J. N. Sinclair |
Publisher | : Routledge |
Total Pages | : 402 |
Release | : 2009-12-16 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1135179778 |
Download Inflation Expectations Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle
Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.